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## Accepting the Terms and Privacy Policy
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その１https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20200327214055
12 Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura is one of the few professionals of mathematical models of infectious diseases in Japan, and it is well known that his ability is outstanding. However, many people don't understand mathematical models themselves (I must confess that I can't say that I understand all of the findings because I'm not a professional of mathematical models either), so his findings and comments are easily deified. Because the contents of the mathematical model are a complete black box to many people, it makes it seem like the oracle is coming out like a shrine's oracle. Much of Japan's infection control policy relies on the Nishiura theory. So there is nothing wrong with that, but one of the problems in Japan is that there is no plan B in case plan A goes bust. Dr. Nishiura is an excellent scholar. It is not God. Hence the need to have that Plan B with the possibility of making a mistake. I am greatly concerned that bureaucrats and politicians who are prone to infallibilism will mistake science for an oracle. It is only when falsifiability is assured that science can continue to be scientific.
感想：おみくじと神託が同じoracleだったので変な文章になったが直していない。
13 数理モデルは演繹法の活用産物である。演繹法は帰納法やアブダクションで補完するのが、学問の基本であり、臨床医学の常識である。演繹法的にどんなに正しく見えても実はそれは違っていた、ということはこの業界ではよくあることなのだ。ヘーゲルやマルクスのような巨大な知性でも演繹法オンリーでは間違うのである。
Mathematical models are the product of deductive methods. The deductive method is complemented by the inductive or abduction method, which is the basis of scholarship and the common sense of clinical medicine. It's a common occurrence in this industry that no matter how deducibly correct it may seem, it's actually not true. Even a huge intellect like Hegel or Marx can make a mistake by deduction alone.
感想：「蓋を開けてみれば」を「実はそれは」に変更した。
14 モデルを使うな、といっているのでは決してない。ぼく自身、モデルを用いて論文を書く。しかし、モデルは無謬ではなく、そこには前提である仮定があり、仮定はしばしば間違っている。グラム染色を活用するとは、グラム染色にできないこと、分からないことを知悉していることであり、グラム染色万能論者にグラム染色は使えない。同じことだ。英国でも数理モデルは活用されているが、だからこそ英国人はその結語には非常に懐疑的で、常に反論、異論が起きている。健全で科学的な態度である。
I'm not saying don't use the model at all. I myself write a paper using a model. However, the model is not infallible, there are assumptions that are assumptions, and the assumptions are often wrong. Making use of Gram's stain means having full knowledge of what Gram's stain cannot do and does not understand, and Gram's stain cannot be used by Gram's stain universalists. It's the same thing. Mathematical models are also utilized in the UK, which is why Brits are very sceptical of their conclusions, and there are always counter-arguments and objections. It is a sound and scientific attitude.
感想：「前提たる仮定」がうまく訳せていなかったので「前提である仮定」にしたが、assumptions that are assumptionsになってしまった。
「英国人は」がないと主語がIになってしまったので追加した。しかしBritsじゃ意味違うよ。もっと正しく訳してくれない？
15 Japan's "now" is a well-controlled state of infection, which is much better than Wuhan at its worst, or Italy, Spain, France, England, or New York at the present time. The problem is that it doesn't guarantee that it will "always work".
16 懸念されるのは東京だ。感染報告が増えたことだけが問題なのではない。クラスターを形成できない、トレースできない感染者が増えているのが問題である。そして、その陽性患者数に比べて検査数がずっと少ない。47人の感染者を捕捉するために100人未満（陽性者の検査日が不明だが、おそらくこのへんだろう）しか検査していないのは少なすぎる。
It is Tokyo that is of concern. The increase in reports of infection is not the only problem. The problem is that more and more infected people are unable to form clusters and cannot be traced. And the number of tests is much lower than that number of positive cases; it's too little that they only tested less than 100 people (the date of testing for the positives is unknown, but it's probably around here) to capture 47 infected people.
Again, it's not necessary to figure out all the infected people. However, it is troubling that the flow of infection, movement and clusters are out of sight. Therefore, the threshold for testing must be lowered in Tokyo. The threshold for testing varies with the circumstances. That's what I explained with the Korean example. Sticking to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's "standards" will lead to a misunderstanding of the phenomenon itself. Already in the Kansai region, infected people have been found with taste and smell abnormalities, and clusters have been detected from there. I would like to make more use of the athletic sensibilities of these clinicians. I'm not sure "where" in Tokyo is the barrier to lowering the number of inspections, but that barrier needs to be removed immediately.
感想：「捕捉するのに」を「捕捉するために」に変更した。多分これでいいと思う。思いたい。
アスチュートがathleticになっているのはどう反応したらいいかわからない。
17 This conceptual diagram that everyone is looking at - lowering the peak of the infection and shifting it to the side. This is all a product of deduction, and I don't know if it's really true. As mentioned above, the UK estimates already suggest that this is not enough. It is possible that the damage that was shifted to the side could simply be "extra-long damage".
18 そして、ここが肝心なのだが、ピークを下げるという理念が、「ピークを下げなければいけない」という観念になり、「ピークは下がっているはずだ」という確信になり、「ピークは起きていないんだ」という自己暗示に転じてはいけないということだ。プランAに固執する日本あるあるの失敗のパターンで、ダイヤモンド・プリンセスでは「二次感染が起きてはいけない」が「起きているはずがない」に転じてノーガード下船を許してしまった。「ピークが起きてはいけない」が「ピークなんて見たくない」にならないように現実を見据える必要がある。たとえ、それが我々の見たくない不都合な真実であったとしても。
And this is the key point: the idea of lowering the peak should not become the notion that the peak must be lowered, or the belief that the peak must be lowered, or the self-implication that the peak is not happening. In a pattern of Japanese failure to stick to Plan A, Diamond Princess allowed no-guard disembarkation by changing "secondary infection should not occur" to "it can't have happened". We need to keep our eyes on reality so that "peak shouldn't happen" doesn't become "I don't want to see a peak. Even if it is an inconvenient truth that we don't want to see.
感想：mustが違う文脈で二回出てきている。よくわかるように変更したいものだ。
カギカッコがないとうまく訳せなかったので追加しているが、なぜかカッコ閉じるがいくつか抜けている。この箇所以外にも抜けがある。
19 Repeatedly. It's common knowledge in this industry that deductive methods are complemented by inductive methods. Nevertheless, PCR is often false-negative and has little power to determine the status of infection. That's why "testing everything" is so wrong. However, a serum test measuring immunoglobulin IgM and IgG would provide a more accurate picture of the "status of infection in the population. This, however, is not infallible. It is difficult to use for individual cases because it misses early infection, which is why it misses early HIV infection.Whether antibody testing is useful in individual cases remains to be tested, but it is well suited for epidemiological studies on a population basis. Roughly speaking, we can confirm whether the "infection is rampant" in Tokyo right now, or whether it's just an unfounded fear.
前例としては、ロンドンの血清検査で09年パンデミックインフルエンザが従来予測の10倍起きていたことが血清検査でわかっている。抗体検査はアウトブレイクのあとで事後的に行うことが多いが、慢性的パンデミックになりつつあるCOVID-19については、「今」こそが検証のポイントといって良い。
As a precedent, serology tests in London showed that the 2009 pandemic flu was 10 times more likely than previously predicted. Antibody testing is often performed after an outbreak, but now is a good time to examine COVID-19, which is becoming a chronic pandemic.
感想：「前例はあって」を「前例としては」に変えた。「前例はある。なおかつロンドンで〜１０倍起きていた」になってしまったからだ。
20 英国はさらにアグレッシブだ。家庭で抗体検査を行い、「感染者である」とわかればそれを自宅での自己隔離の根拠に使おうというのだ。ロックダウンが起きている中で、検査陰性は「自己隔離不要」を意味しないため、その戦略に欠陥はある。が、考え方としては「感染全体を抑え込みたい」というもので、検討の価値はあると思う。
The UK is even more aggressive. The idea is to test for antibodies at home, and if they are found to be infected, they will use it as a basis for self-isolation at home. That strategy is flawed because with the lockdown in place, a negative test does not mean "no self-sequestration". However, the idea is that we want to control the infection as a whole, and I think it is worth considering.
21 東京でどのくらいの感染が起きているか、帰納法的確認は必要であり、有用だ。その結果がどうなるかは預言者ではないぼくには分からない。が、どんな結果が出てきても、それを受け入れ、場合によっては自説を変えて、プランBに移行することにも躊躇しない態度が科学者には必要だ。科学者は、首尾一貫していないことにかけて、首尾一貫していなければならないのだ。形式においては首尾一貫していなくても、プリンシプルやプロフェッショナリズムにおいて一貫しなければならないのだ。事実に誠意を。
Inductive legal confirmation of how many infections are occurring in Tokyo is necessary and useful. I'm not a prophet, so I don't know what the outcome will be.However, no matter what the outcome, scientists need to accept it and not hesitate to change their thesis and move on to Plan B in some cases. Scientists have to be coherent in their inconsistencies.They may not be coherent in form, but they must be coherent in principles and professionalism. Good faith in the facts.
感想：首尾一貫という言葉を使いすぎて文章をアホっぽくしてしまったが他にいい方法が思いつかない。朝三暮四は理解してくれなかった。「自説を曲げ」は「自説を変えて」に変更した。
文章はもう少し整形できると思うがとりあえずこれで。
https://georgebest1969.typepad.jp/blog/2020/03/事実に誠意を.html
これが原文です。
外国から問い合わせが来ているけれども時間がなくて訳せないということで、DeepLの性能確認ついでにやってみました。
この私訳と岩田健太郎先生は無関係なのでよろしくお願いします。
訳された文章を原文と見比べ、翻訳で文章がおかしくなったところや慣用句は「必ず日本語側の文章をいじることで」できるだけ解消しました。
よって改変した文章だけをこちらに載せ、改変する必要がなかったところは段落番号しか載せていません。元文章は元ブログを当たってください。
英語に詳しいパーソンが精査していただけると幸いです。
1 Most of what I'm about to write is no different from what I've said and done in the past. However, I have been asked the same question repeatedly, so I would like to reiterate it. We have received many inquiries from overseas as well, so we should have prepared the same content in English, but due to time constraints, I'm afraid I'll have to skip it. This article is designed to be read without basic knowledge of infectious diseases and jargon, but it is rather difficult to understand. Please forgive me for that.
感想：「Chromeかなにかでそれぞれ母国語に訳してお読みいただけると幸いです。」がきれいさっぱり消えている。DeepLの自負心だろう。
2 The fact that the number of COVID-19 reports in Japan is very low compared to other countries is attracting attention from home and abroad. Is it true? It has been pointed out that the number of tests is so small that we may be misreading the actual number of infected people.
3 However, this point is wrong at various layers. In the first place, Japan does not aim to capture all the numbers of COVID-19. Whether it's administrative testing or insured care, the state basically has a testing strategy in mind to diagnose, hospitalize, and isolate critically ill patients who need to be hospitalized. It is natural that they "haven't figured it out" and they don't intend to. That's not a bad thing.In fact, the situation is the same in every country, large or small, and no country, whether in the United States, Europe, or Asia, is aiming to "capture the whole number.
感想：最後の文はなぜか他の文と一緒に入力すると訳してくれなかった。この文一つだけ入力すると訳してくれた。
よく考えると「多かれ少なかれ」は通じないだろうから直した方がよかった。なぜかDeepLに繋がらなくなったのでもう直せない。
WHOもそんなことは求めていない。もっとも、そのわりに日本は帰国者無症状者にPCRをやってみたり、無症状な検査陽性者を入院隔離させてみたり（軽症者は自宅じゃなかったの？）、プリンシプルにおいて首尾一貫していない。だから、「彼らがなにがやりたいか私たちはよくわからない」ので、人々は不安になる。リスコミにおける失敗と言えよう。
The WHO is not asking for such a thing. But instead, Japan gives PCR to asymptomatic returnees and isolates asymptomatic test-positive people in hospital (wasn't it home for people with minor illnesses?). It has not been coherent in its principles. So, people get anxious because "we're not sure what they want to do". It's a failure in the press.
感想：「なにがやりたいかよくわからない」に主語を付与する必要があった。リスコミがpressになった。よくわかったな。
「〜は自宅じゃなかったの？）、」の、が.になっているのがよくわからない。なぜかDeepLに繋がらなくなったのでもう直せない。
4 The difference between Korea and Japan is the "result" and not the "purpose". In South Korea, where the number of infected people had surged in one place, we had to focus on inspections in and around the area. If such a phenomenon (let's call it an overshoot) occurs in Japan, the number of inspections will increase. When the situation is different, arguing only on the basis of the number of tests without observing the situation is like trying to say, "That team made 50 sliding tackles while this team made only one," without watching a football game. In games where you don't have to slide (e.g., when you're in possession the whole time), even 0 times isn't a "mistake," and of course 50 times isn't a mistake.
5 全数把握ができていない疾患など山のようにある。日本ではインフルエンザの「全数」把握はしておらず、定点観測である。疫学上、感染対策上、それで十分な情報が得られているからだ。日本で毎年風邪が何例発生しているか、正確に把握したデータはない。レセプトデータを見ればわかるじゃないか、というのも間違いで、なぜなら多くの風邪患者は（ぼくのように）受診せずに自然に治るまで待っている。医療に限らず、経済学でも政治学でもデータはサンプリングから母数を推定するのがほとんどで、「全数」は非効率的な状態把握法なのだ。
There are many diseases for which the total number of patients is not known. In Japan, we do not have a "total" number of influenza cases, but only a fixed-point observation. Because that's enough information, both epidemiologically and in terms of infection control. There is no accurate data on how many cases of the common cold occur each year in Japan. It's also a mistake to say that you can tell by looking at the receipt data, because many cold patients (like me) don't see a doctor and wait until they are cured naturally. Not only in medicine, but also in economics and political science, data are mostly based on sampling to estimate population numbers, and "whole numbers" is an inefficient way of grasping the situation.
感想：ちょこちょこ変えてある。日本語の文章が多少おかしくなっているのは勘弁してほしい。接続詞を適切に入れると格段に翻訳が正確になる。
6 We have not seen the devastation in Japan as in Italy, Spain or New York City. There is no medical collapse in a critically ill patient, no use of the operating room as an ICU, no piling up of bodies on a skating rink with no place to put them. Even if the "numbers" are not known, it is a fact that the current situation in Japan (including Tokyo) is much better controlled than in other countries.
7 Even so, you may be interested in "Well, what about the actual situation? There are estimates. For example, Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura and his group estimate that the number of mild illnesses in Japan may be twice the reported number. The catch rate is 0.44, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.37-0.50.
8 Although the study was based on data from China, there is no guarantee that the Chinese COVID-19 demographic is the same as the Japanese one. Also, since the original study did not include asymptomatic patients or those with minor illnesses that did not require hospitalization, the number of infected patients estimated on that basis would inevitably be an underestimate. If you are more paranoid, it's not unreasonable to believe that "the Japanese and Chinese viruses are different because of the mutation" (although I don't think so).
9 This does not diminish the value of the paper itself. The model must always use existing parameters, and it is often impossible to prove the external validity of these parameters. If the underlying parameters are not reasonable, the predictions will not be correct. A model assumes a simplified world insofar as it is a model. A model without simplification, which is an adjectival contradiction.
数理モデルのこうした「前提」にイチャモンを付けるのは、例えばAという疾患を対象にランダム化比較試験をしたときに、「Bという疾患については説明できないじゃないか」と文句を言うようなもので、業界の仁義に反する意味のない揚げ足取りである。
To complain about these "assumptions" of the mathematical model is like complaining, for example, "You can't explain disease B," when a randomized controlled trial is conducted for disease A. This is a meaningless tirade against the honor of the industry.
感想；「分からない」を「説明できない」に変えた。多分これでいいと思う。思いたい。
However, it is different for the reader of the paper.
A mathematical model that assumes a certain hypothesis should have internal academic validity, but it is the responsibility of the reader, as a resident of the real world, to appraise it in the real world.
Aという疾患を対象にしたRCTの知見をBという疾患に使ってはならないように、数理モデルの制限を理解し、現実世界にアプライするときに十分注意するのは当然だ。
Just as the RCT findings for disease A should not be used for disease B, it is natural to understand the limitations of the mathematical model and to be careful when applying it to the real world. For example, it would be wrong to read the paper and conclude that the total number of infected people in Tokyo is about 500 as of March 26.
感想；「読み手は別である」を「読み手にとっては別である」に変更し、「制限や限界」は「limitations and limitations」になったので片方削った。
11 People make mistakes. The models are also wrong. Being wrong is not a big deal. The problem is to notice your mistakes and make corrections. Already, a group at Imperial College London has admitted that its original estimate that the peak of the infection should be moderated was "wrong" and has revised its prediction that the ICU will soon fail if it does not fight the virus fairly aggressively.
https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20200322025040
They walked along by the old canal
A little confused, I remember well
And stopped into a strange hotel
( ・3・) ふたりは古い運河に沿って歩いた。少しまごついていたのをわたしはよく覚えている。そしてふたりはネオンの輝く奇妙なホテルに入った。
――「奇妙なホテル」とは？
( ・3・) ホールにフランク・ザッパの蝋人形でも飾ってあったんじゃないか？ ああ、この strange というのは unfamiliar ということだな。――ネオンの輝く見知らぬホテルに入った。彼は夜の熱気に打たれるのを感じた。まるで運命のひとひねりと共に走る貨物列車がぶつかってきたようだった。
( ・3・) 夕暮れの公園にいたふたりが歩きだす。ネオンが光っているから、あたりはもうすっかり暗くなったんだろうな。「わたし」の記憶によると、少しまごついていたようだが……。
――「わたし」が出てきましたね。
( ・3・) ふたりの背後に忍びよる謎の人物……。落ち着かない心の内までお見通しとは、たいした観察力だ。
――……。
( ・3・) いや、分かってるよ。賢明なる読者諸氏ならば、「わたし」の正体は説明せずともお分かりになるはずだ、ってことだろ？ 分からないとおかしい。ナボコフの『 』を読んで、「 」と「 」とが同一人物だと気づかないようなものだ。
――『 』は読んでいないのですが……。
( ・3・) だから少しは本を読めって。ただしまともな本だぞ。『死にたくなければラ・モンテ・ヤングを聴きなさい』みたいなのは読書にカウントされないからな。
――話を元に戻しましょう。
( ・3・) 三人称の物語だったはずなのに、一人称の「わたし」がぱっと現れて、さっと消える。聴き手は混乱するんだけど、何事もなかったかのように、彼と彼女との物語が続いていく。
――はい。人称の問題は後で見直すとして、脚韻についてはどうでしょう。
( ・3・) 1行目と2行目、canal と well は母音が合っていないんじゃないか？
――子音しか合っていません。脚韻は、強勢の置かれた母音以降の音が一致しないといけないので、この箇所は韻を外していることになります。そのうえ、1行目と2行目とでは旋律も違います。
( ・3・) 違ったっけ。
――違うんです。第一スタンザでは、1行目・2行目・3行目はきれいに韻を踏んで、旋律も同じかたちでした。ところが、第二スタンザでは、1行目・2行目で母音が揃わず、canal は上昇する旋律、well は下降する旋律です。というか、"I remember well" のところは、はっきりした音程がありません。そこだけ語りのようになっています。
( ・3・) 例の「わたし」が出てくるところだな。ひょっとしたら、わざと韻を外して、旋律も外して、「わたし」に対する違和感を際立たせようとしているんじゃないか？
――わざとかどうかは分かりませんが、定型から逸脱することで、聴き手の注意を喚起する効果はあると思います。
( ・3・) となると、韻を踏まないことにも意味がありうるわけだ――あれ、6行目と7行目、train と fate も韻を踏んでいないぞ。
――6行目は train ではなく freight train の freight が脚韻にあたります。
( ・3・) まず列車の概念があって、それからより具体的には貨物列車、という思考の流れではないんだな。まずフェイトという音の響きがあって、その響きが無意識の言葉の渦からフレイトをひっぱり出してくる。それから列車の概念がフレイトにくっついてやってくる。意味が音を追いかけているみたいで面白いな。
A saxophone someplace far off played
As she was walkin’ by the arcade
As the light bust through a beat-up shade
( ・3・) どこか遠くでサックスを吹いている人がいた。――これは順番をひっくり返さないとうまくいかないな。――彼女がアーケイドを歩いていると、どこか遠くからサックスが聞こえてきた。くたびれた日よけから光が差し込み、彼は目を覚ました。
――まだ覚ましてはいません。
( ・3・) ――彼は目を覚ましつつあった。彼女は門のところで盲人のカップにコインを入れた。そして運命のひとひねりのことは忘れてしまった。
( ・3・) 夜から朝になった。どこか遠くでサックスを吹いている人がいる。時を同じくして、彼女はどこかへ歩いていく。そしてまた時を同じくして、夢うつつで横になった彼の部屋に光が差す。一行ごとに場面が切り替わって、映画みたいだ。
( ・3・) どこかへ歩いていく彼女は、そのまま消えてしまう。盲人のカップにコインを入れる、というのが何か象徴的な行為なんだな、きっと。運命、盲人、テイレシアス、と連想が働くせいでそう感じるのかもしれないが。
――何を象徴しているんですか？
( ・3・) 何かをだよ。メルヴィルの白鯨は何を象徴しているんだ？
――何かをですね。
( ・3・) そう。ある行為や対象が何を意味するのか一義的に定まらないとき、その行為や対象は象徴性を帯びるんだ。ひとつ賢くなったな。
――とはいえ、門のところの盲人は運命を告げるわけではなく――
( ・3・) それどころか、彼女は運命のひとひねりなんて気にしてないんだな、ちっとも。
――強い。
( ・3・) 強い。運命に抗う者は悲劇的な最期を遂げるが、運命に関わらない者はいつまでも幸せに暮らすんだ。――じゃあ、ありがたい教訓も得られたことだし、次に進もうか。
――その前にひとつだけ。わたしが面白いと思うのは、彼女が去っていくのを誰も見ていない点なんです。まず、どこか遠くのサックス奏者は物語に関与しない。
( ・3・) 音だけの出演。
――部屋では彼はまだ寝ている。そして門のところの盲人には――
( ・3・) 彼女は見えない。なるほど、興味深い指摘だ。きみ、名前は？
――……。
( ・3・) 名前は？
( ・3・) アルトゥーロ、ありがとう。そんなところにも彼女の強さというか、優位性が表れているのかもしれないな。
He woke up, the room was bare
He told himself he didn’t care
Felt an emptiness inside
To which he just could not relate
――ハーモニカの間奏を挟んで、ここからは後半です。彼と彼女とがいっしょにいる、あるいは少なくとも近くにいるのが前半でしたが、ディラン先生のハーモニカを聴いている間に、彼女のいた世界は彼女のいなくなった世界に変わってしまいました。――では、どうぞ。
( ・3・) 彼が目を覚ますと、部屋は熊だった。
――クマ。
( ・3・) 「かすみの間」「うぐいすの間」みたいに、「グリズリーの間」だったんだよ。泊まった部屋の名前が。
――真面目にやりましょう。
( ・3・) 彼が目を覚ますと、部屋は空っぽだった。彼女はどこにもいなかった。どうってことはないと自分に言い聞かせ、彼は窓を大きく押し開いた。心の内に虚しさを――
――虚しさを？
( ・3・) 虚しさを感じた。で、その虚しさというのは、彼がどうしてもリレイトできない――
――He just could not relate to an emptiness inside ということです。
( ・3・) どうしても関わることのできない虚しさ？
( ・3・) おまえが引きたいというのなら。
――ランダムハウスにちょうどいい例文が載っています。I can’t relate to the new music of Miles Davis. マイルス・デイヴィスの新しい音楽はわたしにはしっくりこない。――1972年に『オン・ザ・コーナー』を聴いた人はそう感じたかもしれません。そもそも1967年の『ソーサラー』からして、もう調性は不
( ・3・) 自分自身の虚しさとうまくつきあっていけない、と考えればいいのか。――どうしてもなじむことのできない虚しさを感じた。運命のひとひねりによってもたらされた虚しさを。
( ・3・) さっき "he was wakin' up" のところで「まだ目を覚ましてはいない」って添削が入ったのは、このスタンザの "He woke up" が念頭にあったからなんだな。
――そうです。ここではっきりと目を覚ます。
( ・3・) 彼女はいなくなっている。大丈夫だと自分に言い聞かせるってことは、大丈夫ではないわけだ。窓を開けたら心の内に虚しさを感じた、のくだりはなんだか分かる気がするな、感情の流れが。ぐっときたぜ。
――まず部屋が空っぽだという状況が語られる。でも本当に言わんとしているのは、彼の内面が空っぽになったことです。開いた窓のところに立って外と内とを画定することで、内面という言葉が自然に導かれています。
( ・3・) きみ、名前は？
He hears the ticking of the clocks
And walks along with a parrot that talks
Hunts her down by the waterfront docks
( ・3・) 時計がチクタクいうのが聞こえる。言葉を話すオウムを連れて歩く。水夫たちがやってくる港で彼女を捜す。また彼女が彼を見つけてくれるかもしれない。どれだけ待たなければならないのか。もう一度、運命のひとひねりが生じるのを。
( ・3・) 時計の音が聞こえてくるのにあわせて、時制が現在形になった。ここからは彼にとってまだ過去の出来事ではないんだな。
――彼女のいない現実が、一秒ごとに動かしがたいものになっていく。コンクリートが固まるみたいに。
( ・3・) 「言葉を話すオウムを連れて歩く」は何を意味するんだ？ アメリカ文学で鳥がしゃべるといったら、ポウの「ザ・レイヴン」だな。死に別れた恋人と天国で再会できるだろうかと訊くと、鳥は「二度とない」と予言するんだ。
――このオウムは実在するんでしょうか？ どこからともなく現れましたが。
( ・3・) そこを疑うの？ 「昔々、あるところにおじいさんとおばあさんがいました」「エヴィデンスは？」みたいなものじゃないか。
――いえ、そうではなく、おそらく肩の上、耳元でオウムが話しているわけですよね、彼女を捜して歩いている間ずっと。それは暗喩ではないかと思うのですが。
( ・3・) おじいさんは暗喩としての山へ暗喩としての柴刈りに行きました。
――「周囲の人たちの話が、オウムの言葉のように空疎に聞こえてしまう」を暗喩的に言い換えると「言葉を話すオウムを連れて歩く」になりませんか？
( ・3・) 心ここにあらずだから、「よう、調子はどうだい？」と声をかけられても、「ヨウ、チョウシハドウダイ」と聞こえるわけか。まあ、そうかもしれないな。
To know and feel too much within
( ・3・) 内面を知りすぎてはいけない、感じすぎてはいけないと人は言う。わたしは今でも信じている。彼女はわたしの双子だったと。しかしわたしは指輪をなくしてしまった。彼女は春に生まれたが、わたしは生まれるのが遅すぎた。運命のひとひねりのせいで。
( ・3・) 「わたし」が出てきたな。二番目のスタンザでは存在をちらっと匂わせる程度だったが、ようやく正体を現した。
( ・3・) そう。三人称・過去のかたちで物語が始まり、彼女がいなくなって時計の秒針が意識に上ったときから三人称・現在になる。そして今、一人称・現在で「わたし」＝「彼」が胸の内を明かしている。
――すべて過去形で書くこともできたし、すべて三人称、あるいは一人称で書くこともできたと思うんですが、どうしてそうしなかったんでしょう？
( ・3・) なんだか「学習の手引き」みたいになってきたな。時制が変わるのは、彼女の不在が彼にとって現在の出来事でありつづけているから。人称が変わるのは――そうだな、最後のスタンザの心情は、客観的に、距離をおいて語れないんじゃないか。まだ傷が生々しくて。
――第四スタンザの「部屋は空っぽだった」から「窓を大きく押し開いた」のあたりはハードボイルドの流儀で、あまり感傷的にはなるまいという抑制が働いているんですが、最後のスタンザになると――
( ・3・) 抑制が外れて、ついでに三人称の仮面も外れる。他人の物語であるかのように体裁を保っていたのが、保てなくなる。こういう効果を生むためには、人称の変化が必要だったんだな。
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https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20200219071929
コピペありがとう。英文として読めるように、文字起こし完成の作業をしている。終わったらここに貼りつけるね。→作業完了したから、この下に貼りつける。
英語版 文字起こし (自動生成）のコピペを、英語として読める文章にした。いくつか聞き取れていないところがあるので、わかる人がいたらトラバで教えてほしい。聞き取れていないところは「(inaudible01)」みたいに番号をふって記載してあるので、その番号を書いてトラバしてもらえると嬉しい。→20日朝、元動画がユーザーにより削除されていることを確認。よって、聞き取れなかった数か所はそのまま放置となります。あいすみません。
あと、増田って脚注使えないんだっけ((脚注のテスト))? いくつか注入れたいところがあるのだが、無理っぽいのでアナログな手法を取ることにした。若干読みづらいかもしれないが堪忍してほしい。
追記: Twitterで書いたんだけど、わざわざ時間を割いて（2時間くらいかかった）この作業をしたのは、YouTubeの自動生成字幕の、8割くらいは合ってるんだけどあとはめちゃくちゃという文面が善意で拡散されることを防ぎたかったため。元の主張を拡散したかったのではなく、誤った情報（変な英語）が拡散されるのを防ぎたかったのです。その点、ご理解をよろしくお願いします。
ソース動画: ※ユーザーにより削除済み（2020年2月20日朝確認）
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtHYZkLuKcI
Diamond Princess is COVID-19 mill. How I got in the ship and was removed from it within one day. - 2020/02/18, kentaro iwata
Hello. My name is Professor Kentaro Iwata. I am a specialist of infectious diseases at Kobe University Hospital, Kobe, Japan.
Today I entered into[sic]*1 the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, which is, erm, bombarded by a lot of COVID-19 infeciton right now.
And I was removed from the ship on the same day and I'm gonna talk to you why this happened.
I was very concerned of the number of the people who got infected with the COVID-19 disease infections. Then I was wondering why this is[sic](was)*2 happening. I wanted to enter into the cruise ship and wanted to be useful in helping to containing infection there.
I spoke with several people and finally one officer at working for Ministry of Health and Labor called me yesterday, saying that well you can come and enter into a cruise ship and do the infection control works.
And I said fine then I prepared my stuff and I did all the paperworks and arrangement and got onto the Shinkansen from Kobe to Yokohama.
On the way to go to Yokohama I got another call from the same officer, saying, "Somebody didn't like me. So you can't get into the cruise ship." He was not able to say who, and he was not able to say why, but certainly some power over him affected his decision and I was blocked from entering into the ship.
Then after several discussions he found another way that if you could come as a DMAT member, you can come into the the cruise ship. DMAT is the disaster management medical team in Japan and usually deals with a disaster not infectious diseases, but because of the lack of the people who could help people inside a cruise ship to get out of the ship, or the managing of people, and so on, DMAT was requested to enter into the cruise ship.
Because my specialty is not disaster management, so I was not very happy about that, but because we had no other way I said, "Fine, I'll do that."
Additionally, I got another call that some people didn't like me getting into the cruise ship present even as a DMAT member. So another discussion happened then the I waited about one hour in Shin Yokohama Station, and finally the officer find a way. [He said] that "If you work for DMAT not as an infection prevention specialist but as an ordinary routine DMAT officer working under (inaudible01) DMAT doctor doing a routine job, then you could come into the cruise ship."
I was not very happy with that decision, but because there's no other way, so I said, "Fine, I'll get into the ship."
I entered the ship. Then I found the chief officer of the DMAT and spoke with him. I said, "Well I was assigned to the DMAT members (inaudible02) out whatever you want to say." Then he said, "Well, you don't have to work DMAT work because that's not your specialty. You are an infection prevention specialist, so why don't you do the infection control." Then I said, "Fine, I spoke with the superior of him who is[sic](was) in charge of the all the DMAT operations, and he also said, "You are an infection control person, so you should do infection control." I said, "Fine." But he said, "Well, you shouldn't be here as a DMAT member. You should come as (inaudible03) infection control specialist." He was not very happy about that while I was inside the DMAT. But because that was not my decision, there was no other way. So I said, "Well I have to do it."
I looked into the several places inside the ship and it turned out that the cruise ship was completely inadequate in terms of infection control.
There was no distinction between the Green Zone, which is free of infection, and the Red Zone, which is potentially contaminated by the virus.
So the people could come and go, (inaudible04) a PPE, off PPE. Crews were just walking around, the officers of the Ministry Health and Labor were walking around, DMAT people were walking around, psychiatrists were walking around.
And people were eating on the one plate. People were wearing PPE and off PPE, and eating lunch with their gloves on, and just dealing with the smartphone with full PPE, so it was completely chaotic.
And some crews had a fever. They went to the medical center while wearing N95 masks. But he didn't have any protection between his room and a medical room.
And the medical officer was not protecting herself. And she was very unhappy, saying that well she was already infected. I'm sure about that. She was completely giving up protecting herself.
Anyways I (have) dealt with a lots of infections (for) more than twenty years. I was in Africa dealing with the Ebola outbreak. I was in another country dealing with the cholera outbreak. I was in China in 2003 to deal with the SARS, and I saw many febrile patients there. I never had fear of getting infection myself for Ebola, SARS, (and) cholera, because I know[sic](knew) how to protect myself and how to protect others, and how the infection control should be. So I could do the adequate infection control; protect myself, and protect others.
But inside (the) Princess Diamond, I was so scared. I was so scared of getting COVID-19 because there was no way to tell where the virus is. No Green Zone, no Red Zone. Everywhere could have the virus and everybody was not careful about it.
There was no single professional infection control person inside the ship. And there was nobody in charge of infection prevention as a professional. The bureaucrats were in charge of everything.
I spoke with the head officer of the Ministry of Health and Labor and he was very unhappy with my suggestion of protecting DMAT people and other staffs so that no other secondary transmission would occur.
Then after several hours of talking to people and finding problems, I found a lot of issues there. For example, informed consent of getting a PCR from the people in the ship whereas(? inaudible05) on a paper, and that paper was going back and forth, back and forth with the room of the infection from the paper, by touching there[sic](it). So I suggested that maybe it's better to abandon the paper-type informed consent but rather getting the informed consent verbally would be more protective, and so on and so on.
I think I was reasonable. I never yell at anybody, I never criticize anybody personally, but I was trying to be constructive that we try to seek the constructive but immediate improvement to protect everybody inside the ship.
※このあたりから、独自に聞き取っておいてから字幕と照らし合わせるという方法に切り替えたので、ことばとことばの間のandなどを書かない頻度が増えます。
Then about five o'clock, the person from the quarantine office came in and approaced. (He) said, "Well you have to be out because you'll not be allowed inside the ship." Because I was inside the ship as a temporary officer of the quarantine. Apparently my bank(? inaudible06) was removed by somebody, and nobody said who, and then I was out.
The officer who offered me the job of infection control said he was sorry. Then I asked him, "So what do you wanna do? Do you want to infect everybody in the ship? It will be thousands of people who could potentially get COVID-19.
I don't criticize DMAT people. They were infection control specialists. Society of Infection Prevention entered, a lot of specialists came in, but they spent only a few days and they left. And they said they were fearful of getting infections themwelves.
I share the same fear. Because I'm in the same room now, and I separated from my family, I'm very scared of getting infection myself and I'm very scared of infecting my family too.
I'll be out of my medical services at Kobe University Hospital for maybe next two weeks to avoid further infections to occur. That is very likely to occur if you keep zero infection control inside the ship, the Diamond Princess, like this.
You might know that there is no CDC*3 in Japan, but I thought there must be some specialists called on and was[sic](were) in charge of infection control in ship. It's not expecting[sic](expected) (that) nobody was a professional infection control specialist, and (that) only the bureaucrats were doing the jobs, completely layman's work, violatiing all the infection control principles and risking people inside (of*4) further infections, so I'm not very surprised to see many new positive PCR to be broadcasted every day.
Hundreds of people got infected and a lot of people from outside Japan decided to take the people away from the ship and bring them to their home countries by airplane and offered them another 14 days of quarantine. I hope this will be an opportunity to raise a question (about) what is happening inside the ship.
I wish all the international bodies to request Japan to change. I wish everybody to call for the protection of people inside the Diamond Princess. Otherwise there'll be far more infections for passengers, for crews, for DMAT members, for psychiatrists, for officer(s) of the Ministry of Health and Labor. DMAT members consist of nurses and doctors and that they will go back to the hospital they work routinely and they might infect their patients further to spread the disease. I can't bear with it. I can't bear with it.
I think we have to change. We have to do something about these crews and we have to help people inside the ship, their safety and their life.
Again, I am Professor Kentaro Iwata, infectious disease specialist. Thank you for listening.
【注】
＊1: enterは他動詞なので本来はintoは不要。クソリプのような語注だが、英語教材屋なのでそこはすまん。今回は、原文尊重（編集を加えないこと）の観点からそのままintoをつけておくことにした。
＊2: 時制の一致でwasにしたほうがよいところ。これ系の文法ミスはほかにもごく少数含まれているが、原文尊重（編集を加えないこと）の観点から、そのまま文字起こしして、より望ましいと思われる語形をカッコで書き添えるようにした。本来、何も書かずにサクッと直すようなところだが、今回は編集者の処理が見えるようにすることが重要と考えた。
＊3: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 米国の政府機関。
＊4: risk ～ of ... という構文はたぶんないと思うが、書かれた言葉としてはここに何かないと文意が成立しないと思うので、便宜上ofを補っておく。
BBCが岩田教授にインタビューして、日本語記事を英語に先行して出しているので見るとよいと思う。このYouTube動画で説明されていなかった具体的なことも記者との質疑応答で説明されている。映像3分17秒。
感染症の専門家、客船内の感染対策を批判 BBCが取材: https://www.bbc.com/japanese/video-51556982
恋をし～た夜は～すべてがうまく行きそうで～
江口洋介です。
いやもうこの時間よ。
あまりに仕事が終わらないから途中ランチ挟んじゃいましたのエグチのセットです。
なんでみんな午前中に好き勝手に私にボンボン用事を頼むのかしらと思って片付けてたら
こんな時間なのよ！
さすがにポテトは箸で食べなくない？
ポテチなら分かるけど、
とてもほほほ微笑み増し増しの微笑ましさよね。
でもさ
ああいうファストフード店とかで脂ぎった脂ギッシュな食べ物を食べたときに
まあ箸で食べたいって言うのはすごく分かりみのある話しだと思うんだけど、
みんなあの手で食べた直後スマホとか触ってるし、
画面がベタベタしないのかしら？って
意外とみんな普通にポテトの先でスマホを操作してて器用なのよね。
あれちゃんと画面動くのかしらって
いろいろと不安になるけど、
余計に紙ナプキンを多目に持って来ちゃいたいところだけどね。
私はいつもタマゴ好きなのでエグチマクリマクリスティーなんだけど、
あの焼き固められたタマゴのあの
還元糖とアミノ化合物の加熱した際に香るメイラード反応を私は楽しみにしてるのかも知れない。
結局は何だって良いのかもしれないわよ。
なんでもフライパンで焼いたら美味しくなるって言う、
あのポテトも何故か油で揚げているのに特有のファストフード店の香りと
ポテト！ポテト！ポテト！って節をつけて歌いたくなっちゃうあのブザー音は何なのか分からないけど、
あのポテト！ポテト！ポテト！ってフェスでも流れないほどのビートを刻みながら、
今でも鮮明に覚えているもの。
さすがに酔っ払って群衆で行く
飲んだ後のシメの代わりに
ハンバーガーを頼んで待ってるときのポテトコールの曲がかかったときに
ポテト！ポテト！ポテト！ってコールはしないところはまだ曲として未完成なんだと思うの。
エビバディセイホー！ってコールアンドレスポンスで言われたとき
恥ずかしくて声が上げられない東北の観客のように、
ノリ方が分からないのよねノリ方が。
なんだかポテト1つなのに思い出が走馬灯のように総集編の再放送でもやらないぐらい
半年の放送分を50分で一気に放送しちゃいそうなほどの連続ドラマってのは
役者さんの演技の「間」の妙ってことだと思うの。
あの台詞のない場面のト書きとト書きの行間の台本を想像しちゃいそうで、
ああ今こう思ってるのかしらとかああ思ってるのかしらとか想像しちゃいたいほどで、
あれこれ考えていたら、
コーヒーのおつまみにと食べていたポテトが無くなっちゃったわ。
もうよもう。
すぐ食べちゃったから、
やっぱりここは躊躇せずにMサイズにした方が良かったわよねって
アフターフェスティバルでランチタイムが終わらせることが出来たわ。
また次食べたいね！って美味しさの分量の方がいいのよね。
アメリカ行って張り切ってコーラLLサイズとか頼んでんじゃないわよって。
店員さんが親切で、
そんなに大きいの頼まなくてもおかわり無料だから小さいサイズの方がいいし
しかも冷たいのがいつでも飲めるんだぜって言ってくれちゃうところなんか
私は泣いたわ。
ああ懐かしいったらありゃしない感じで、
な、泣いてなんかないよ
歯が染みただけなんだかんね！
私菜っ葉好きだから菜っ葉よけろ！って言われても絶対買っちゃうわ！
ふと思ったんだけど、
ジャスミンティーの本場はジャスミンティーをどうやって煎れるのかしら？って思うけど、
すいすいすいようび～
今日も頑張りましょう！
こっちはみらい翻訳。
"I love you." と5行目の主語は同じくダメ。あと、4行目5行目の後半の目的語がちゃんと特定できていない。
Googleの勝ちか。
Pudding is delicious. I love you.
Fruit jelly... is certainly delicious.
It is juicy and has a fruity texture, and the pulp and seeds are in it to reproduce the texture.
But if you have raw fruit and a really fancy fruit jelly, you'll get some fruit, right?
If you have egg and milk sets and pudding lined up, take them out.
Google翻訳してみた。
"I love You." がダメなのと5行目の主語がyouになってしまっている以外は結構やるやん。
"delicious is delicious" はイマイチか。
Pudding is delicious. I love You.
Fruit jelly is ... delicious is delicious.
It has a fresh and fruity feel and the texture is reproduced with the flesh and seeds.
But if you have raw fruit and superb fruit jelly lined up, you'll get the fruit, right?
If you have eggs and milk set and pudding side by side, take the pudding.
ダイエット成功により、ながらく箪笥の肥やしであった服（Lサイズ）がジャストサイズになっていて喜んでいたのだが、
他のも着ようと思ってLLのを引っ張り出したら、パッツンパッツンで着れなかった。
Amazonでなんか格好よさげな服見つけても、中華メーカーだとXXXLくらいでユニクロのLと同じレベルとか、多すぎるんだよ。
まあ、LだのXLだは感覚的な表示だから、まだ丼勘定なのは仕方ないかもしれないけど、
靴で27だの27.5だのとインチで書いてあるのに、「このメーカーのは1サイズ上にした方が良い」とか、何なんだよ。
違うメートル原器でも使ってんのか？ 工場が亜光速で移動してて伸びたり縮んだりしてんのか？
おかしいだろうが。
何で規格を統一しないんだよ。
別に型紙変えろとか言う気はないよ。今のまま作って良いけど、大きさの単位を揃えて「27.125インチ」とかそういう細かい表記にすりゃ良いだけだろうがよ。
何考えてんだよ。
客がサイズ間違えてもう一個買う事を期待してでもいるのか？
無印からメールマガジンで「無印良品週間（※）」の案内が来ていた
しかし増田は思った、「あれ…？ ついこの前やってなかった…？」
そこで増田は立ち上がる！ 過去のメールマガジンを検索して集計したのだ！
※無印の商品が10%引きで買える会員限定サービス。ちょくちょくやってる
メルマガを掘れる範囲でキリが良かったので5年分（2015～2019）
| # | 開始日 | 終了日 | 日数 | 前回からの間隔 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2015/3/13 | 2015/4/6 | 25 | - |
| 2 | 2015/4/24 | 2015/5/7 | 14 | (17) |
| 3 | 2015/6/12 | 2015/6/22 | 11 | (35) |
| 4 | 2015/10/2 | 2015/10/13 | 12 | (101) |
| 5 | 2015/11/20 | 2015/12/1 | 12 | (37) |
| 6 | 2016/3/11 | 2016/4/4 | 25 | (100) |
| 7 | 2016/4/22 | 2016/5/9 | 18 | (17) |
| 8 | 2016/6/10 | 2016/6/20 | 11 | (31) |
| 9 | 2016/9/30 | 2016/10/11 | 12 | (101) |
| 10 | 2016/11/18 | 2016/11/28 | 11 | (37) |
| 11 | 2017/3/10 | 2017/4/3 | 25 | (101) |
| 12 | 2017/4/21 | 2017/5/8 | 18 | (17) |
| 13 | 2017/6/9 | 2017/6/19 | 11 | (31) |
| 14 | 2017/9/29 | 2017/10/10 | 12 | (101) |
| 15 | 2017/11/17 | 2017/11/27 | 11 | (37) |
| 16 | 2018/3/15 | 2018/4/3 | 20 | (107) |
| 17 | 2018/4/20 | 2018/5/7 | 18 | (16) |
| 18 | 2018/6/16 | 2018/6/25 | 10 | (39) |
| 19 | 2018/9/29 | 2018/10/8 | 10 | (95) |
| 20 | 2018/11/16 | 2018/11/26 | 11 | (38) |
| 21 | 2019/3/15 | 2019/4/1 | 18 | (108) |
| 22 | 2019/4/19 | 2019/5/7 | 19 | (17) |
| 23 | 2019/6/14 | 2019/6/25 | 12 | (37) |
| 24 | 2019/9/27 | 2019/10/7 | 11 | (93) |
| 25 | 2019/10/25 | 2019/10/31 | 7 | (17) |
| 26 | 2019/11/15 | 2019/11/25 | 11 | (14) |
| 年／月 | 3月 | 4月 | 6月 | 9月 | 10月 | 11月 | 日数 計 | 回数 計 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015年 | 25 | 14 | 11 | - | 12 | 12 | 74 | 5 |
| 2016年 | 25 | 18 | 11 | 12 | - | 11 | 77 | 5 |
| 2017年 | 25 | 18 | 11 | 12 | - | 11 | 77 | 5 |
| 2018年 | 20 | 18 | 10 | 10 | - | 11 | 69 | 5 |
| 2019年 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 78 | 6 |
「感じさせられる女」「感じさせる男」という役割は、いつ生まれたか（田中 亜以子） | 現代ビジネス | 講談社
これな。中を読めばなるほどと思わされる近現代の面白いトピックがたくさん書いてあるんだけど、それはいいんだが、総論があまりにおおげさじゃね？ 「男性が女性を『感じさせる』セックスをデフォルトとする価値観の誕生は、20世紀初頭の西欧に見出すことができる」とある。マジかよ、と驚いた。
「とはいえ、女性＝受動的、男性＝能動的とする当時の性別観は強固に維持された。（中略）『感じさせられる女／感じさせる男』の誕生である」ともある。そこに至る論旨がよくわからないんだが、なんか「女性＝受動的、男性＝能動的とする性別観」イコール「感じさせられる女／感じさせる男、という性別観」であり、そんな価値観は19世紀以前の地球人類には存在しなかった、と言ってるように読める。そりゃいくらなんでもおおげさじゃねーの。
そんなに最近生まれた特殊な価値観だとしたら、「昔のセックスは男女対称だった」という例が，いくらでも挙げられるハズだ。しかしどこまで読んでも、それは、ない。ないのはどう考えてもオカシイんだが、そう指摘するブコメもない。春画では男女が対称的に絡み合ってる、という仄めかしが冒頭にあり、全体の締めに「性的快楽の平等は、女性のリプロダクティブ・ライツの保障はもとより、社会的に女性が男性と対等な存在となることなしに、ありえない。そして、そのときこそ単純な『感じさせられる／感じさせる』という性役割も消滅しているのではないだろうか」とあるが、その割に、江戸時代の町人男女は社会的に対等で性的に対称だった、のかどうか、踏み込んだ検証もない。なんでないの。ないならなんで仄めかすの。
オスがアプローチし、
諾否の決定権はメスが持つ。
オスが攻めでメスが受け。
その構図が、西暦1900年以降の西欧で発明されたものだっちゅーの？ アホか。地球上の大抵の虫も鳥も、カメレオンもクジャクもラッコもカメも、そういうふうになってるじゃないか。それでも普遍的とは言えない、というなら別にそれでいいけど、数億年単位の歴史があるものを「誕生は、20世紀初頭の西欧」って、ないわー。
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精子は貧弱だが活発で無尽蔵、卵子は富栄養だが不活発で希少である。種の生存戦略としてそれが普遍的な正解だとは言わない。原初の地球の原初の海の所与の条件下で、たまたま結果としてそういうタイプが勢力を拡大した、ということなのかどうか、まあとにかく事実としてそうなった。そういうタイプの生物に於いては、オスが遺伝子を残す確率は、ほぼ、孕ませたメスの数に比例する。要するに、片っ端からヤリたがるのが正しい。
一方、メスはいくらヤッたって、一繁殖期当たり、通常一体のオスの子しか孕めない。当然、遺伝子を残す確率を高めるには、相手を厳選しなくてはならない。クソみたいなカスみたいなオスに孕まされたら一巻の終わりだ。なにせ卵子は希少なのだから。ヤリチンは英雄だがヤリマンは愚か。例外は「タマシギ」くらいしか知られていない。
ヒトの場合で言うと、オスは１年で300人を孕ませることだって（3000人だって）原理的には可能だが、メスはその間、一度しか妊娠できない。クソみたいなオスのアプローチを、時にかわし時に撥ね付け、同時に一方では懐妊のタイムリミットも気にしつつ、落としどころで妥協して決断して受諾するしかない。人気ブコメに「女が『やらせてあげる』（男が『やらせてもらう』）っていう表現や意識は絶滅してほしい」というのがあるけれど、そういう意識の根源はここにあり、絶滅はなかなかむずかしいと思う。「誕生は、20世紀初頭の西欧」って、ないわー。
◉◉
昔のブンガクの話をする。好色一代女は、「堂上家の姫君に生まれた一代女が、その道を踏み外して、快楽と苦悩とのないまぜになった売春生活の末に、次第次第に転落し、太夫から天神、私娼へと堕ちてゆく」話で、1686年刊、とWikipediaにある。
あるいは八百屋お七。これはどこまでが史実でどこが創作文学なのかわからないんだが、大火で焼け出されたうぶな少女が、避難所で遊び人にヤラれちゃって忘我の境地を知りメロメロになり、そのオトコに逃げられて想いを募らせ罪を犯すという話が、当時も、現代においても、深い同情と共感を呼ぶ。
あるいは竹取物語。男たちが求婚し、諾否の決定権は女が持つという、まさにそういう構図の話だ。
あるいは「逢ひ見ての のちの心にくらぶれば 昔はものを 思はざりけり」とか「つれなのふりや すげなのかおや あのようなひとが はたとおちる」とか、どうですか。エロいでしょう。西洋の寓話には「眠れる美少女がイケメンのキスで目覚める」というのが多く、男女逆のは聞いたことがない。あれも、そういうことじゃないんですか。
あるいはオウィディウスの「恋愛指南」（複数の和訳があるらしい。以下はネットで拾いましたすみません）。「私は[女が]自分の喜悦をついもらす声を聞くと嬉しくなる。私に待ってくれとか、こらえてくれとか、いってくれるのは嬉しい。女の愛の狂的な、もう参ったという目つきを見たいものだ。彼女をぐったりさせたい。もうさわってくれるなと拒ましめたい」「目当ての女性の膝に塵が落ちかかるようなことがあったら、指で払い取ってやらねばならぬ。たとえもし塵など全然落ちかかってこなくとも、やはりありもせぬ塵を払い取ってやりたまえ。なんでもいいから、君が彼女に尽くしてやるのに都合のいい口実を探すのだ」「接吻を奪ってからは、満願成就までなにほどのことがあろうか。ああ、なんたることぞ。そんなのは恥じらいではない、野暮というものだ。力ずくでものにしてもいい。女にはその力ずくというのがありがたいのである。女というものは、与えたがっているものを、しばしば意に添わぬ形で与えたがるものだ」紀元前の書らしいよこれ。
これらに接して素直に浮かぶ感懐は、オレの場合、ああ、エロ事情って二千年前から変わらねえんだな、というものです。お前ら様はどうですか。ちなみに怪人小谷野敦は、怪著『もてない男』の中で「近代以降と中世以前との違いばかり強調するのがいまどきの流行だが、共通点だって普通にある（大意）」と述べている。「誕生は、20世紀初頭の西欧」って、ないわー。
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まあブンガクは置いとくとして、「ほとんどの生き物が、オスが性的にアプローチし、諾否の決定権はメスが持つ」というのは、珍説でもなんでもなく、大抵の人が知っているはずの事実だ。「ほとんどの生き物で、まあ控えめに言ってもほとんどの哺乳類で、メスは交尾の間、ただじっとしている」というのも「ヤリチンは武勇伝として語られがちだが、ヤリマンは呆れられる」というのも、大抵の人が知っている。「男の性欲は視覚からでも、あるいは内なるリビドーからでも一瞬で火が点くが、女の身体は時間をかけ手順を踏んで優しい接触から始めてもらわないとなかなかスイッチ入らない」とか、「多くの男は射精の快感を自然に知るが、多くの女は上手な男に上手に開発されないとなかなか目覚めない」とかいうのも、まあ俗説かもしれないが、フェミ勢を含む多くの人が直感的に、かつ体感的に、認めているのではないか。
「若い女は可愛い」というのも、無視できない。もちろん筆者なら「それこそまさに社会が押し付けるジェンダーロール」と言うだろうが、本当にそうか。「ヒトは、小さくてすべすべでふわふわで声の高い生き物を可愛いと感じ、愛でたくなるようにチューニングされている。子育てに有利だから結果としてそういう特性が優位になった」という仮説は、そんなにおかしくないと思うんだが。写真を見るとこの筆者自身、明らかにオレより可愛い。
「オスが攻めでメスが受けなのは性器の形状から考えても当たり前」というような一見バカっぽい主張だって、「いつ生まれたか」を本気で考えるなら、当然アタマをよぎるはずのファクターだ。
なぜ、それらをすべて無視して、20世紀初頭の西欧なのか。
それは、「いつ、なぜ生まれたか」を、本気で考える気がないからだ。
この人は「それは社会的な刷り込みに過ぎない。それもごく最近の、特殊な」という結論ありきでものを言ってる。だから、その結論に都合の悪い話は無意識にスルーする。
◉◉
「ホニャララという価値観はなんら普遍的なものではない」式の主張は、確かに快刀乱麻感があって気持ちいいが、そもそも価値観というものはすべて何らかの偏りであり、したがって「普遍的ではない」のは当たり前だ。それだけでは「価値観は価値観だ」と言ってるのと変わりない。
それが意味を持つのは、ホニャララフリーな世界も意外に広い、という事実とセットの場合だけだ。例えば「チョンマゲはカッコイイという価値観」に対して、「チョンマゲを奇異に思う世界の方が圧倒的に広い」と提示することには意味がある。また例えば「食事というものは主食とおかずから成る」と思い込んでる人に、そうでもない文化圏の存在を示せば、有益な目ウロコ落としになるだろう。だが「感じさせられる女」の論考には、男女が互いに感じさせ合う文化圏も意外に広い、というような例は、ぜんぜん出てこない。
そんなら、最初っからこう言えばいいんだよ。「普遍的かどうかとか、いつ生まれたのかとか無関係に、私はその価値観が嫌いだ」と。「想像してごらん、男女が対称的なセックスを。私を夢想家だと笑うかい？ But I'm not the only one. I hope someday you'll join us」と。
オレは「セックスの快感の授与と受容において、男女はもっと対称的であるべきだ」という、なんとなくジョンレノンっぽい主張を、批判する気はない。特に賛成でもないが反対でもない。そう思う人はそう主張すればいいと思う。少なくとも、悪い意見じゃない。
また、男女の性行動の非対称性に自然な根拠があるからと言って、「自然な根拠があるから肯定・維持すべきだ」とも思っていない。例えば「痴漢は男が多い」ことには、生物としてもっともな理由があると思うけれど、だからといって痴漢を擁護する気はない。いくら本能的にもっともであっても、否定されるべきことというのはある。
だからね、その主張自体は、べつにいいんだよ。ただ、その主張を強化するために、客観を装ってもっともらしい嘘を述べ、あるいは誰かのもっともらしい嘘を本気にし、それをあたかも確定した事実であるかのように無批判に引用し、自分の主張の根拠とし、都合の悪い要素はスルー、という、その姿勢がイヤだ。恥ずべきだ。
◉◉
オレの方こそ些細な点をおおげさに問題にしてるのだろうか。
例えば「そういう価値観は太古からある。ちょっと20世紀初頭の西欧から概観してみよう」とでも書いてあれば何も文句はないんだし、脳内でさらっとそう読み換えて流すのが大人のたしなみなのかも知れない。だけどさー、「いつ生まれたか」というタイトルで、いやまあタイトルなんてものはね、著者の意向と無関係に編集者が後から勝手につけたりするもんだけどね、これの場合は本文中に「本稿では、『感じさせられる女／感じさせる男』という役割が、そもそもどのようにしてつくられていったのか、その歴史的経緯を概観したい」と書いた上で、直後に「誕生は、20世紀初頭の西欧」って、はっきり書いてあるんだもんよー。長くてごめんねー。
グレタ・トゥーンベリ氏のU.N. Climate Action Summit 2019におけるスピーチが話題になってるわね。
ブコメとかに言いたいこともあるけれど、それよりNHKの全訳(https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20190924/k10012095931000.html)がなんかしっくりこないので、自分で訳してみたわ。
ごめん嘘。バズると思って訳し始めたらNHKの方がずっと早かったの(よくもそんなことができますね！)。せっかくだから書き上げたわ。でもしっくりこないのは本当よ。
私のメッセージ(※1)はこうです。”私たちはあなた方を見ています”
My message is that we'll be watching you.
これは何もかも間違っています。私はここにいるべきではありません。私は海の向こうの学校に帰るべきです。しかし、あなた方はみんな、私たち若者に希望を求めてやってきます。よくもそんなことができますね！
This is all wrong. I shouldn't be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you!
あなた方は私の夢を、私の子供時代を、その空虚な言葉によって奪い去りました。それでも私は幸運な方です。人々は傷ついています。人々は死んでいます。生態系は完膚なきまでに崩壊しつつあります。我々は大量絶滅の始まりにいるのです。なのにあなた方が話すことと言えばお金のことや永遠に続く経済成長というおとぎ話ばかり。よくもそんなことが言えますね！
You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I'm one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction. And all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!
過去30年以上、科学的事実はずっと明確なままでした。よくも目をそらし続けられたものですね。よくもここに来て、”私は十分にやった”などと言えたものですね。必要な政策も解決策もいまだに見えてこないというのに。
For more than 30 years, the science has been crystal clear. How dare you continue to look away and come here saying that you're doing enough, when the politics and solutions needed are still nowhere in sight.
あなた方は言います。私たちの言葉を聞いていると。緊急性は理解していると。しかし、どれだけ私が悲しみ、怒っていたとしても、私はその言葉を信じたくはありません。なぜならば、もしもあなた方が本当に状況を理解しており、それにもかかわらず行動を起こしていないとすれば、あなた方は邪悪な人々ということになってしまうからです。だからこそ、私はそう信じることを拒絶します。
You say you hear us and that you understand the urgency. But no matter how sad and angry I am, I do not want to believe that. Because if you really understood the situation and still kept on failing to act, then you would be evil. And that I refuse to believe.
一般的な考えとして、世界の(二酸化炭素)排出量を10年間で半分にするというものがあります。これによって気温上昇を1.5℃に抑えられる確率はわずか50％に過ぎず、人類の手に負えない不可逆的な連鎖反応が始まるリスクは依然としてあります。
The popular idea of cutting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees [Celsius], and the risk of setting off irreversible chain reactions beyond human control.
50％という数字はあなた方にとっては許容できるものかもしれません。しかし、この数字は転換点(※2)の存在や、多くのフィードバックループ、大気汚染に隠れたさらなる温暖化、公平性や気候正義(※3)の観点を含んでいません。それらはまた私たちの世代が、あなた方の出した数千億トンの二酸化炭素を、ほとんど実現すらしていない技術で以て大気から取り除くことをあてにしているのです。
Fifty percent may be acceptable to you. But those numbers do not include tipping points, most feedback loops, additional warming hidden by toxic air pollution or the aspects of equity and climate justice. They also rely on my generation sucking hundreds of billions of tons of your CO2 out of the air with technologies that barely exist.
50％のリスクは私たちにとって到底受け入れられるものではないのです。私たちはその結果と共に生きていかなければならないのですから。
So a 50% risk is simply not acceptable to us — we who have to live with the consequences.
[気候変動に関する政府間パネル]による最も分のよい試算では、67％の確率で気温上昇を1.5℃以下にするために、世界全体で許される二酸化炭素排出量は2018年1月1日以降で420ギガトンまでです。今日(2019年9月24日)、既にその数字は350ギガトンを割っています。
To have a 67% chance of staying below a 1.5 degrees global temperature rise – the best odds given by the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] – the world had 420 gigatons of CO2 left to emit back on Jan. 1st, 2018. Today that figure is already down to less than 350 gigatons.
よくも”今まで通りのやり方”や何かしらの技術で解決できるなどと嘯けますね。今の排出レベルでは、残りの350ギガトンの猶予も8年半以内で使い切ることになります。
How dare you pretend that this can be solved with just 'business as usual' and some technical solutions? With today's emissions levels, that remaining CO2 budget will be entirely gone within less than 8 1/2 years.
今日ここにいたるまで、これらのデータに沿った解決法も計画もまったくありません。なぜなら、これらの数字は非常に不愉快であり、あなた方はそのことをありのままに伝えられるほど成熟していないからです。
There will not be any solutions or plans presented in line with these figures here today, because these numbers are too uncomfortable. And you are still not mature enough to tell it like it is.
あなた方は私たちを裏切り続けています。そして若者たちはあなた方の裏切りに気付き始めています。未来の世代の目はすべて、あなた方に注がれています。そして、もしあなた方が私たちを裏切ることを選ぶのなら、私は言います。”私たちはあなた方を許さないでしょう”
You are failing us. But the young people are starting to understand your betrayal. The eyes of all future generations are upon you. And if you choose to fail us, I say: We will never forgive you.
私たちはあなた方を逃がしません。今この場所、今この時から、私たちは線を引きます。世界は目覚めつつあります。そして、あなた方の好むと好まざるとにかかわらず、変化もまた訪れるのです。
We will not let you get away with this. Right here, right now is where we draw the line. The world is waking up. And change is coming, whether you like it or not.
ありがとうございました。
Thank you.
※1 これは「世界の指導者たちへ向けてのメッセージはありますか？」という司会からの質問を受けて始まるスピーチなので、話の相手方は大人たち全般ではないことに注意が必要よ。
※2 Tipping point：NHKの方にも注釈があるけれど、気候変動が急転するポイントのことよ。具体的には正のフィードバックループが止められなくなったりする気温だったりするわね。例えば、気温が上がれば水蒸気が増える、水蒸気が増えれば温室効果がアップ、そしてさらに……、といった具合。演説中で触れられていた1.5℃の温度上昇もtipping pointの一つよ。
※3 Climate justice：「先進国が出した二酸化炭素のせいで温暖化してるのに、途上国にしわ寄せが来すぎるのはおかしいだろう。」的な話。先進国(や富裕層)は途上国(や貧困層)に対して温暖化被害の点で責任があるし、対策はそれを踏まえて両者に公平な形で進められるべきであるという考え方よ。多少人権周りの話も絡んでくるので詳細はもっと複雑ね。こっちにも注釈付けた方が良かったんでないのNHKさん。
