Antidosis - Oxford Reference
12 Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura is one of the few professionals of mathematical models of infectious diseases in Japan, and it is well known that his ability is outstanding. However, many people don't understand mathematical models themselves (I must confess that I can't say that I understand all of the findings because I'm not a professional of mathematical models either), so his findings and comments are easily deified. Because the contents of the mathematical model are a complete black box to many people, it makes it seem like the oracle is coming out like a shrine's oracle. Much of Japan's infection control policy relies on the Nishiura theory. So there is nothing wrong with that, but one of the problems in Japan is that there is no plan B in case plan A goes bust. Dr. Nishiura is an excellent scholar. It is not God. Hence the need to have that Plan B with the possibility of making a mistake. I am greatly concerned that bureaucrats and politicians who are prone to infallibilism will mistake science for an oracle. It is only when falsifiability is assured that science can continue to be scientific.
Mathematical models are the product of deductive methods. The deductive method is complemented by the inductive or abduction method, which is the basis of scholarship and the common sense of clinical medicine. It's a common occurrence in this industry that no matter how deducibly correct it may seem, it's actually not true. Even a huge intellect like Hegel or Marx can make a mistake by deduction alone.
I'm not saying don't use the model at all. I myself write a paper using a model. However, the model is not infallible, there are assumptions that are assumptions, and the assumptions are often wrong. Making use of Gram's stain means having full knowledge of what Gram's stain cannot do and does not understand, and Gram's stain cannot be used by Gram's stain universalists. It's the same thing. Mathematical models are also utilized in the UK, which is why Brits are very sceptical of their conclusions, and there are always counter-arguments and objections. It is a sound and scientific attitude.
15 Japan's "now" is a well-controlled state of infection, which is much better than Wuhan at its worst, or Italy, Spain, France, England, or New York at the present time. The problem is that it doesn't guarantee that it will "always work".
It is Tokyo that is of concern. The increase in reports of infection is not the only problem. The problem is that more and more infected people are unable to form clusters and cannot be traced. And the number of tests is much lower than that number of positive cases; it's too little that they only tested less than 100 people (the date of testing for the positives is unknown, but it's probably around here) to capture 47 infected people.
Again, it's not necessary to figure out all the infected people. However, it is troubling that the flow of infection, movement and clusters are out of sight. Therefore, the threshold for testing must be lowered in Tokyo. The threshold for testing varies with the circumstances. That's what I explained with the Korean example. Sticking to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's "standards" will lead to a misunderstanding of the phenomenon itself. Already in the Kansai region, infected people have been found with taste and smell abnormalities, and clusters have been detected from there. I would like to make more use of the athletic sensibilities of these clinicians. I'm not sure "where" in Tokyo is the barrier to lowering the number of inspections, but that barrier needs to be removed immediately.
17 This conceptual diagram that everyone is looking at - lowering the peak of the infection and shifting it to the side. This is all a product of deduction, and I don't know if it's really true. As mentioned above, the UK estimates already suggest that this is not enough. It is possible that the damage that was shifted to the side could simply be "extra-long damage".
And this is the key point: the idea of lowering the peak should not become the notion that the peak must be lowered, or the belief that the peak must be lowered, or the self-implication that the peak is not happening. In a pattern of Japanese failure to stick to Plan A, Diamond Princess allowed no-guard disembarkation by changing "secondary infection should not occur" to "it can't have happened". We need to keep our eyes on reality so that "peak shouldn't happen" doesn't become "I don't want to see a peak. Even if it is an inconvenient truth that we don't want to see.
19 Repeatedly. It's common knowledge in this industry that deductive methods are complemented by inductive methods. Nevertheless, PCR is often false-negative and has little power to determine the status of infection. That's why "testing everything" is so wrong. However, a serum test measuring immunoglobulin IgM and IgG would provide a more accurate picture of the "status of infection in the population. This, however, is not infallible. It is difficult to use for individual cases because it misses early infection, which is why it misses early HIV infection.Whether antibody testing is useful in individual cases remains to be tested, but it is well suited for epidemiological studies on a population basis. Roughly speaking, we can confirm whether the "infection is rampant" in Tokyo right now, or whether it's just an unfounded fear.
As a precedent, serology tests in London showed that the 2009 pandemic flu was 10 times more likely than previously predicted. Antibody testing is often performed after an outbreak, but now is a good time to examine COVID-19, which is becoming a chronic pandemic.
The UK is even more aggressive. The idea is to test for antibodies at home, and if they are found to be infected, they will use it as a basis for self-isolation at home. That strategy is flawed because with the lockdown in place, a negative test does not mean "no self-sequestration". However, the idea is that we want to control the infection as a whole, and I think it is worth considering.
Inductive legal confirmation of how many infections are occurring in Tokyo is necessary and useful. I'm not a prophet, so I don't know what the outcome will be.However, no matter what the outcome, scientists need to accept it and not hesitate to change their thesis and move on to Plan B in some cases. Scientists have to be coherent in their inconsistencies.They may not be coherent in form, but they must be coherent in principles and professionalism. Good faith in the facts.
This name refers to a folk story set in the time when smuggling was a significant industry in rural England, with Wiltshire lying on the smugglers' secret routes between the south coast and customers in the centre of the country.The story goes that some local people had hidden contraband barrels of French brandy from customs officers in a village pond. While trying to retrieve it at night, they were caught by the revenue men, but explained themselves by pointing to the moon's reflection and saying they were trying to rake in a round cheese. The revenue men, thinking they were simple yokels, laughed at them and went on their way. But, as the story goes, it was the moonrakers who had the last laugh. In the words of Wiltshire shepherd William Little who recounted the story to writer John Yonge Akerman: “ Zo the excizeman ’as ax’d ’n the question ’ad his grin at ’n,…but they’d a good laugh at ’ee when ’em got whoame the stuff.
Janszky, I., Ahnve, S., Ljung, R., Mukamal, K. J., Gautam, S., Wallentin, L., & Stenestrand, U. (2012). Daylight saving time shifts and incidence of acute myocardial infarction–Swedish Register of Information and Knowledge About Swedish Heart Intensive Care Admissions (RIKS-HIA). Sleep medicine, 13(3), 237-242.
Kirchberger, I., Wolf, K., Heier, M., Kuch, B., von Scheidt, W., Peters, A., & Meisinger, C. (2015). Are daylight saving time transitions associated with changes in myocardial infarction incidence? Results from the German MONICA/KORA Myocardial Infarction Registry. BMC public health, 15(1), 778.
https://gist.github.com/anonymous/a75c47f5b9d8afa57907d9e05d7f0120 https://www.couchsurfing.com/users/2003270051 http://delicious.com/fcvgasdfg https://www.instapaper.com/p/5099814 https://www.wattpad.com/user/dfasdvvfgg https://dribbble.com/fasdfga https://kinja.com/asdfgccc https://soundation.com/user/fxs9690 http://www.ulule.com/fascvasdfg/ http://preview.tinyurl.com/gq2wrly http://bit.ly/1Y8gYIM+ http://bit.do/bTFf9- http://jsperf.com/n32enfdnvc
https://www.strava.com/activities/534371269 http://codepen.io/senverus/post/england-west-indies-i http://www.joomlatune.com/forum/index.php/topic,154158.0.html https://paper.li/e-1459684504 http://flagcounter.boardhost.com/viewtopic.php?pid=279207 https://500px.com/groups/england-vs-west-indiesicc2 https://myspace.com/englandwest30 https://www.zotero.org/groups/england_vs_west_indies_icc_t20_final_2016 http://www.cplusplus.com/forum/jobs/188206/
https://www.couchsurfing.com/users/2003269654 https://www.pinterest.com/sdas5714/ http://www.mobypicture.com/user/ffdfas/view/18985198 https://dribbble.com/asasdfngfvncn https://issuu.com/dcvfvasdfg http://www.ulule.com/areadss/ https://mubi.com/lists/west-indies-vs-england http://www.natives.co.uk/photos/west-indies-vs-england-t20/33807
http://jsperf.com/21e3rfndns http://omeka.org/forums/profile/casdrtg https://geekli.st/bestaas/links/177562 https://www.instapaper.com/p/5099738 https://gist.github.com/anonymous/daedccefd5198788b81c5f868eca4cfa http://delicious.com/fasdfdgsd https://kinja.com/cnsdncnn https://www.codecademy.com/2ewfdvfbna https://www.wattpad.com/user/vaxcaxa https://soundation.com/user/gvl3130 https://gitlab.com/u/sdfvasdfgh http://bit.ly/1Vm9KBv+ http://bit.do/bTEAf-
https://www.strava.com/activities/534248800 http://codepen.io/senverus/post/west-indies-england6 http://www.plurk.com/p/lk7ts1 http://www.joomlatune.com/forum/index.php/topic,154151.0.html https://www.zotero.org/groups/west_indies_vs_england_live_t20_final_icc_2016 http://flagcounter.boardhost.com/viewtopic.php?pid=279199 https://myspace.com/englandwestindies https://500px.com/groups/west-indies-englandg-t20-final-icc-2016 http://www.cplusplus.com/forum/jobs/188200/ http://www.minecraftforum.net/forums/minecraft-xbox-one-edition/mcxone-show-your-creation/2650583-west-indies-vs-england-t20-final-icc-2016
https://gist.github.com/fd0813069eb3352f48e9 http://bit.ly/22OykxF+ http://bit.do/bS9Su- http://preview.tinyurl.com/gugmfdt https://geekli.st/germann/links/174813 https://www.instapaper.com/p/5086920 http://omeka.org/forums/profile/fgfsmfgm http://jsperf.com/germany-england https://www.codecademy.com/sdvfbsafA http://delicious.com/scv4aa https://www.wattpad.com/user/sdfsxcf https://soundation.com/user/emws4346 https://gitlab.com/u/asdffgbvbh
http://codepen.io/allcarhere/post/england-germany-l https://www.strava.com/activities/527493394 http://www.plurk.com/p/ljrlx6 http://www.joomlatune.com/forum/index.php/topic,153060.0.html https://myspace.com/englandgermany https://www.zotero.org/groups/england_vs_germany https://500px.com/groups/england-germs3t http://flagcounter.boardhost.com/viewtopic.php?pid=278599 http://www.minecraftforum.net/forums/minecraft-xbox-one-edition/mcxone-show-your-creation/2643561-england-vs-germany http://www.cplusplus.com/forum/jobs/187599/
https://www.strava.com/activities/527111809 http://codepen.io/allcarhere/post/england-v-sri-lanka http://www.plurk.com/p/ljqyxw http://www.joomlatune.com/forum/index.php/topic,153029.0.html https://www.zotero.org/groups/england_vs_sri_lanka_li https://myspace.com/englandsrilanka2 http://flagcounter.boardhost.com/viewtopic.php?pid=278566 http://www.minecraftforum.net/forums/minecraft-xbox-one-edition/mcxone-show-your-creation/2643301-england-vs-sri-lanka http://www.cplusplus.com/forum/jobs/187575/
http://jsperf.com/nertngn http://omeka.org/forums/profile/sdfvgdgvc https://www.instapaper.com/p/5086591 https://soundation.com/user/hi9956 https://gitlab.com/u/asdfvgdcx4 https://www.wattpad.com/user/asdfgnnnn http://delicious.com/ffasdfbn https://www.codecademy.com/ertnnsdnfgns http://bit.ly/1RFq0OR+ http://bit.do/bS9r4- http://preview.tinyurl.com/zmbsy8l https://gist.github.com/6e8c91975890a17d79e9