1 Most of what I'm about to write is no different from what I've said and done in the past. However, I have been asked the same question repeatedly, so I would like to reiterate it. We have received many inquiries from overseas as well, so we should have prepared the same content in English, but due to time constraints, I'm afraid I'll have to skip it. This article is designed to be read without basic knowledge of infectious diseases and jargon, but it is rather difficult to understand. Please forgive me for that.
2 The fact that the number of COVID-19 reports in Japan is very low compared to other countries is attracting attention from home and abroad. Is it true? It has been pointed out that the number of tests is so small that we may be misreading the actual number of infected people.
3 However, this point is wrong at various layers. In the first place, Japan does not aim to capture all the numbers of COVID-19. Whether it's administrative testing or insured care, the state basically has a testing strategy in mind to diagnose, hospitalize, and isolate critically ill patients who need to be hospitalized. It is natural that they "haven't figured it out" and they don't intend to. That's not a bad thing.In fact, the situation is the same in every country, large or small, and no country, whether in the United States, Europe, or Asia, is aiming to "capture the whole number.
The WHO is not asking for such a thing. But instead, Japan gives PCR to asymptomatic returnees and isolates asymptomatic test-positive people in hospital (wasn't it home for people with minor illnesses?). It has not been coherent in its principles. So, people get anxious because "we're not sure what they want to do". It's a failure in the press.
4 The difference between Korea and Japan is the "result" and not the "purpose". In South Korea, where the number of infected people had surged in one place, we had to focus on inspections in and around the area. If such a phenomenon (let's call it an overshoot) occurs in Japan, the number of inspections will increase. When the situation is different, arguing only on the basis of the number of tests without observing the situation is like trying to say, "That team made 50 sliding tackles while this team made only one," without watching a football game. In games where you don't have to slide (e.g., when you're in possession the whole time), even 0 times isn't a "mistake," and of course 50 times isn't a mistake.
There are many diseases for which the total number of patients is not known. In Japan, we do not have a "total" number of influenza cases, but only a fixed-point observation. Because that's enough information, both epidemiologically and in terms of infection control. There is no accurate data on how many cases of the common cold occur each year in Japan. It's also a mistake to say that you can tell by looking at the receipt data, because many cold patients (like me) don't see a doctor and wait until they are cured naturally. Not only in medicine, but also in economics and political science, data are mostly based on sampling to estimate population numbers, and "whole numbers" is an inefficient way of grasping the situation.
6 We have not seen the devastation in Japan as in Italy, Spain or New York City. There is no medical collapse in a critically ill patient, no use of the operating room as an ICU, no piling up of bodies on a skating rink with no place to put them. Even if the "numbers" are not known, it is a fact that the current situation in Japan (including Tokyo) is much better controlled than in other countries.
7 Even so, you may be interested in "Well, what about the actual situation? There are estimates. For example, Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura and his group estimate that the number of mild illnesses in Japan may be twice the reported number. The catch rate is 0.44, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.37-0.50.
8 Although the study was based on data from China, there is no guarantee that the Chinese COVID-19 demographic is the same as the Japanese one. Also, since the original study did not include asymptomatic patients or those with minor illnesses that did not require hospitalization, the number of infected patients estimated on that basis would inevitably be an underestimate. If you are more paranoid, it's not unreasonable to believe that "the Japanese and Chinese viruses are different because of the mutation" (although I don't think so).
9 This does not diminish the value of the paper itself. The model must always use existing parameters, and it is often impossible to prove the external validity of these parameters. If the underlying parameters are not reasonable, the predictions will not be correct. A model assumes a simplified world insofar as it is a model. A model without simplification, which is an adjectival contradiction.
To complain about these "assumptions" of the mathematical model is like complaining, for example, "You can't explain disease B," when a randomized controlled trial is conducted for disease A. This is a meaningless tirade against the honor of the industry.
A mathematical model that assumes a certain hypothesis should have internal academic validity, but it is the responsibility of the reader, as a resident of the real world, to appraise it in the real world.
Just as the RCT findings for disease A should not be used for disease B, it is natural to understand the limitations of the mathematical model and to be careful when applying it to the real world. For example, it would be wrong to read the paper and conclude that the total number of infected people in Tokyo is about 500 as of March 26.
11 People make mistakes. The models are also wrong. Being wrong is not a big deal. The problem is to notice your mistakes and make corrections. Already, a group at Imperial College London has admitted that its original estimate that the peak of the infection should be moderated was "wrong" and has revised its prediction that the ICU will soon fail if it does not fight the virus fairly aggressively.
・Intro to Philosophy
・Applied Calculus to the Social Sciences
発音：ユー ライク ザッポイン？
英語：That's what I'm saying.
英語：Hey bro, what's happenin'?
英語：Oh I see.
発音：オーゥ アイ シー
英語：I served caesar.
発音：オー マイ ショルダー！
発音：ドゥ ワチュ ワネ
発音：ソー ハゥ ジュー フィール？
発音：アー ユー ゴー ナゥ？
発音：ハゥ イッツ ゴナ ビー
英語：Chains are too tight...
発音：ドゥ ユゥ ノゥ ミー？
英語：What the fuck a boy!
発音：ワッタ ファック ア ボーイ！
発音：ハ！ イヤー ライ メン
英語：I wasn't ready.
発音：アイ ワズン レディ
発音：レッシー ワチュ ガッ
英語：Hey, come in. Close the door.
発音：ワ ドゥ チュ ゲッ ファットゥ？
発音：ユゥ ガット ミー マーッナウ
Sociology.Based on a poor return of investment, and with the market flooded with so many people seeking sociology degrees to do a white variety of jobs, this degree can make you virtually un-hirable. And the average income rests around $32,000 per year.
Education. Nearly 2 out of every 3 degrees earned in 2010, according to Fox news was an education-based degree. This means the market if flooded with people hoping to engage in the world’s noblest profession. Worse, teachers pay is not that great. On the flip side, if family in the future is important to you – then teaching can be a great job where you can still remain with your family.
Although I am a college college student but recently I went to the test site of the Futamata River by the license renewal I was suddenly inverse of an Afro hair woman like Esperanza Spalding but my hair style was so beautiful but my face was so beautiful that I exchanged the tension and exchanged the line that day Although I broke up but the message arrived and it was invitation of the gong consomme so it got even more tension Soon after talking to the department's friends I gathered members and gathered at the private room pub in Ikebukuro yesterday Esperanza Spalding Because I got urgent, I joined up late, so I started drinking with men and women 3, for the time being, for the time being I started to drink 4 girls 3 and the situation of the three girls was obviously crazy and everyone's cute but the face is cute, but the behavior has been consistently suspicious and constantly dull Absolutely by moderation We are not trying to fit together what the matter These children are becoming uneasy but I come with pins at once so that they are all virgins and not quite accustomed to men so I think they are getting nervous so tense If that happens, the men are reincarnated again in the meaning that it is exciting but even if we struggle hard we can not relax their tensions, oh well, if you are confused with what you've done already Unexpected development One of three visited us to take out the booklet from the bag as a matter of fact and began to distribute it to our male team and it seems that if we look closely it is a group name that we have never heard of as an admission guide for emerging religion but we are staggering as to what I got to say that they started to recruit us seriously and spirited about the wonder of the cult and the greatness of the guru and the depth of history and the appreciation of the interests But all three of the girls changed their hands a little while ago and now we are relaxing and we have to stay silent for the time being silent as soon as we go into time like hell and fall apart suddenly the branch of the private room suddenly As the girls screamed at once with all the girls shouting "Guru-sama!" As they all looked at, look at them and wear a rag in the whole body and gods of Afrohair with a golden stick stand standing and see well with Esperanza Spalding While placing a nice smile on the placard, "There is a great success! Although it was all written as it was written as it was all It was a genuine thing seemed to be the entrance guidance of the cult but if it asked what you want to do is to cooperate with friends of the design major, The greetings and the history of the cult and so forth are written carefully and photographs and illustrations are abundantly used and the layout is also getting stuck. I thought that this wasteful energy pouring condition is usually thoughtful but usually they are beauty and theater theater circle Doing it and it seems to be an actor fellow there, just a while ago I came up with this fake religion Dokkari and looked for a target It seemed me that I was captured in the truth so it seems that three of my friends took care of the collaboration but since I was made a solicitude Girls who were suspiciously behaviorally suspicious because they got tension relaxed at once Espana spallding was also funky at the highest Espana Spalling was also funky so I was already enjoying it too much I drunk quite drinking I felt memory flew from the way I seemed to have collapsed apparently but when I woke up 4 men were at an internet cafe and everyone remembered too much I am not sure, girls are not found anywhere Even if I line it to Esperanza Spalding I will not be read Alright, while thinking that gossip with beauty students is dangerous, I wrote this in a private room of a net cafe now.
私は大学生ですが、最近は二代目川の試験場に免許更新で行きました。私は突然エスペランサ・スパルディングのようなアフロ髪の女性とは逆でしたが、私の髪型はとても美しいですが、私の顔はとてもきれいでしたその日に緊張を交わしてその日のラインを交換しましたが、メッセージが届きましたが、それはゴングコンソムの招待で、もっと緊張しました。すぐに部署の友人と話した後、私はメンバーを集め、池袋のプライベートルームパブに集まりました昨日エスペランサ・スパルディング緊急事態になったので、私は遅く入社したので、当分の間、私は男女3人で飲み始めました。私は4人の女の子3を飲み始めました.3人の女の子の状況は明らかに狂っていました。誰もがかわいいが、顔はかわいいですが、その行動は一貫して疑わしく、常に鈍いです。絶対に適度には私たちは一緒に取り組もうとしていません。不安ですが、私は一度にピンを持ってくるので、彼らはすべて処女であり、男性にはあまり慣れていないので、彼らは緊張していると思います。そのようなことが起きれば、男性は再び興奮するという意味で生まれ変わります。あなたがすでに行ったことと混同している場合は、緊張を緩和することはできません。予期せぬ開発3人のうち1人が、実際にバッグから小冊子を取り出して、男性に配布し始めました私たちが密接に見ると、それは新興宗教の入学ガイドとしては聞いたことのないグループ名ですが、私たちは真剣に私たちを募集し始めると言うことを驚かせています。カルトの偉大さと歴史の深さと利益の尊重しかし、少女の3人はすべて少し前に手を変え、今はリラックスしているので、私たちは静かなまま静かにしなければならないすぐw地獄のように時間が掛かり、突然個室の枝が崩壊する突然、女の子たちが一瞬に叫んで「女達さま」と叫んだ。彼らが見ているように、それらを見て、全身にぼかしをかけ、アフロヘアの神々を金色の杖で立って立て、Esperanza Spaldingとよく会ってください。プラカードに素敵な笑顔を浮かべている間、「大成功です！それはすべて書かれたようにすべて書かれていました。それはカルトの入口指針と思われる本物のものでしたが、あなたがしたいことを尋ねるなら、デザイン専攻の友人と協力することです、挨拶と歴史写真やイラストが豊富に使われてレイアウトも詰まっているこの無駄なエネルギー注ぎ込みは普通は思慮深いと思っていましたが、通常は美しさと演劇劇場サークルですそこの俳優になってください、ちょっと前に、私はこの偽の宗教のDokkariを思いついて目標を探しました。私は真実に捕らえられたようでしたので、3人の友人が協力してくれたようです私は恋人となったので、疑わしい行動が疑わしい女の子たちは緊張感を緩和していたので、Españaも最高のファンキーであった。Spallingもファンキーだったので、私はすでにそれを楽しんでいた。私は明らかに崩壊したようでしたが、私が目を覚ましたときにインターネットカフェに4人の男性がいて、みんながあまりにも多くを思い出していました。私はよく分からない、女の子はどこにも見られません。私はEsperanza Spaldingに行けても、美容師とのゴシップは危険だと思って、ネットカフェのプライベートルームにこれを書きました。
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The only thing that's capital-T True is that you get to decide how you're gonna try to see it. This, I submit, is the freedom of a real education, of learning how to be well-adjusted. You get to consciously decide what has meaning and what doesn't. You get to decide what to worship.
It is our failure to become our perceived ideal that ultimately defines us and makes us unique. It's not easy, but if you accept your misfortune and handle it right, your perceived failure can become a catalyst for profound re-invention.
"Cleverness is a gift, kindness is a choice. Gifts are easy -- they're given, after all. Choices can be hard. You can seduce yourself with your gifts if you're not careful, and if you do, it'll probably be to the detriment of your choices."
or, "the most important thing in your life is to live your life with integrityand not to give into peer pressure to try to be something that you’re not, to live your life as an honest and compassionate person, to contribute in some way. So to conclude my conclusion, follow your passion, stay true to yourself. "
No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to Heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because death is very likely the single best invention of life. It is life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.
Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma — which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.
（Why I Changed My Mind About School Reform - http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704869304575109443305343962.html）
Under Obama’s new plan, states can request flexibility from specific NCLB mandates, but only if they are transitioning students, teachers, and schools to a system with college- and career-ready standards for all students and developing built-in accountability that reports the lowest performing 5 percent of schools and the 10 percent with the largest achievement gaps, as well as teacher and principal evaluations that include student performance.
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Wild animals photos
Just as before, that creatures photographer needs any stand-out accounts, including a willing concern in the normal country. Through investment agencies full of photos, your budding creatures photography needs severe numbers of patience, perseverance, along with enable you to read the long video game. In need of wonderful organization and marketing and advertising proficiency, some people will surely have to allure their approach right into great romances using canine parking facilties, making admission to confined areas.
One particular for any adrenaline junkies belonging to the photography planet, professional wedding photographers need nervousness about metal to remain professional in the excellent picture. Addressing that availability of peoples' once-in-a-lifetime reminiscences, its many people,us nikon battery shop as well as crowd-management knowledge should really be exceptional. Ones own croping and editing skills might also want to become top-notch, for a little refined photoshopping can certainly make all the distinction somewhere between a fantastic image, including a appropriate one particular.
Your way during the occupation relies all the about your current disposition like your own skill : if you customize your career further development to be able to which you can be, you will see increasing your current skills really pleasant.
3 位(2) YALE University United States
5 位(4) University of OXFORD United Kingdom
11位(10) COLUMBIAUniversity United States
12位(11) University of PENNSYLVANIA United States
13位(13) JOHNS HOPKINS University United States
15位(15) CORNELL University United States
16位(17) STANFORD University United States
17位(16) AUSTRALIAN National University Australia
18位(20) MCGILL University Canada
19位(18) University of MICHIGAN United States
20位(24) ETH Zurich(Swiss FederalInstitute ofTechnology)Switzerland