  |
はてなキーワード: Onlyとは
そこは不明だが、
The company also tested 371 COVID-19-negative patients, with only two false positives.
を読む限りは、キットの性能的に誤検出はほぼない、あるいは、アメリカでは旧コロ感染歴の人はほとんどいない、のいずれかの結論になる
いずれにせよ、新コロ感染歴のある人は9割方検出できる、新コロ感染歴のない人を誤検出することはほとんどない、になるから検査キットとしては問題なさそうかと
How reliable are the antibody tests?
Premier Biotech, the manufacturer of the test that USC and L.A. County are using, tested blood from COVID-19-positive patients with a 90 to 95% accuracy rate. The company also tested 371 COVID-19-negative patients, with only two false positives. We also validated these tests in a small sample at a lab at Stanford University. When we do our analysis, we will also adjust for false positives and false negatives.
https://pressroom.usc.edu/what-a-usc-la-county-antibody-study-can-teach-us-about-covid-19/
事前の性能検証によると、371人のCOVID-19陰性患者に抗体試験を実施した場合、偽陽性は2例のみ
Coronavirus: speranze dalla scoperta di Sandro Giannini, 10 Aprile, 2020
https://buongiornonews.it/coronavirus-una-speranza-dalla-scoperta-del-prof-giannini/
1) 英訳（Google translate を利用させて頂きました）
Coronavirus: hopes from the discovery of Sandro Giannini
Bologna - From social media comes good news about the Coronavirus, perhaps decisive, which has scientific foundations and is disseminated by an authoritative doctor from Rizzoli of Bologna, Sandro Giannini. His is a highly qualified curriculum: Full Professor of Orthopedics and Traumatology and of Physical Medicine at the University of Bologna since 1989, director of Clinic I at the Rizzoli Orthopedic Institute and of the Gait Analysis Laboratory, partner in European projects and in national and international research programs, author of more than 600 presentations at national and international conferences and more than 400 articles in Science Citation Index journals. His message gives great hope. Let's read:
“I don't want to seem overwhelming to you, but I think I've demonstrated the cause of coronavirus lethality. Only at Blessed Matthew are there 2 cardiologists who turn over 150 beds to do echocardium with enormous effort and one is me. Terrible fatigue! However, of what some supposed, but could not be sure, we now have the first data. People go to resuscitation for generalized venous thromboembolism, especially pulmonary. If this were the case, resuscitations and intubations are of no use because first of all you have to dissolve, indeed prevent these thromboembolisms. If you ventilate a lung where blood does not reach, it is not needed! In fact 9 out of 10 die. Because the problem is cardiovascular, not respiratory! It is venous microthrombosis, not pneumonia that determines fatality!
And why are thrombi formed? Because inflammation, as per school text, induces thrombosis through a complex but well-known pathophysiological mechanism. Then? Contrary to what scientific literature, especially Chinese, said until mid-March, it was that anti-inflammatories should not be used. Now in Italy anti-inflammatories and antibiotics are used (as in the influences) and the number of inpatients collapses. Many deaths, even 40 years old, had a history of high fever for 10-15 days that was not treated properly. Here inflammation has destroyed everything and prepared the ground for thrombi formation. Because the main problem is not the virus, but the immune reaction that destroys the cells where the virus enters. In fact, our COVID departments have never entered patients with rheumatoid arthritis! Because they make cortisone, a powerful anti-inflammatory!
Therefore, hospitalizations in Italy are decreasing and it is becoming a disease that is treated at home. By taking care of it well at home, you avoid not only hospitalization, but also the thrombotic risk. It was not easy to understand it because the signs of microembolism have faded, even at the echocardium. But this weekend I compared the data of the first 50 patients between those who breathe badly and those who don't and the situation appeared very clear. For me you can go back to playing and reopen the business. Quarantine street. Not now. But time to publish this data. Vaccine can arrive calmly. In America and other states that follow the scientific literature that calls for NOT to use anti-inflammatories is a disaster! Worse than in Italy. And they are old and cheap drugs. " (Associated Medias - Red / Giut)
———
2) 原文：イタリア語
Coronavirus: speranze dalla scoperta di Sandro Giannini
Bologna – Dai social arriva una buona notizia sul Coronavirus, forse risolutiva, che ha fondamenta scientifiche ed è diffusa da un medico autorevole del Rizzoli di Bologna, Sandro Giannini. Il suo è un curriculum molto qualificato: Professore ordinario di Ortopedia e Traumatologia e di Medicina Fisica presso l’Università di Bologna dal 1989, direttore della Clinica I presso l’Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli e del Laboratorio di Gait Analysis, partner in progetti europei e in programmi di ricerca nazionali e internazionali, autore di più di 600 presentazioni a congressi nazionali ed internazionali e più di 400 articoli in riviste Science Citation Index. Il suo messaggio dà grande speranza. Leggiamolo:
“Non vorrei sembrarvi eccessivo ma credo di aver dimostrato la causa della letalità del coronavirus. Solo al Beato Matteo ci sono 2 cardiologi che girano su 150 letti a fare ecocardio con enorme fatica e uno sono io. Fatica terribile! Però, di quello che alcuni supponevano, ma non ne riuscivano a essere sicuri, ora abbiamo i primi dati. La gente va in rianimazione per tromboembolia venosa generalizzata, soprattutto polmonare. Se così fosse, non servono a niente le rianimazioni e le intubazioni perché innanzitutto devi sciogliere, anzi prevenire queste tromboembolie. Se ventili un polmone dove il sangue non arriva, non serve! Infatti muoiono 9 su 10. Perche il problema è cardiovascolare, non respiratorio! Sono le microtrombosi venose, non la polmonite a determinare la fatalità!
E perché si formano trombi? Perche l’infiammazione come da testo scolastico, induce trombosi attraverso un meccanismo fisiopatologico complesso ma ben noto. Allora? Contrariamente a quello che la letteratura scientifica, soprattutto cinese, diceva fino a metà marzo era che non bisognava usare antinfiammatori. Ora in Italia si usano antinfiammatori e antibiotici (come nelle influenze) e il numero dei ricoverati crolla. Molti morti, anche di 40 anni, avevano una storia di febbre alta per 10-15 giorni non curata adeguatamente. Qui l’infiammazione ha distrutto tutto e preparato il terreno alla formazione dei trombi. Perche il problema principale non è il virus, ma la reazione immunitaria che distrugge le cellule dove il virus entra. Infatti nei nostri reparti COVID non sono mai entrati malati di artrite reumatoide! Perche fanno il cortisone, un potente antinfiammatorio!
Pertanto, in Italia ospedalizzazioni si riducono e sta diventando una malattia che si cura a casa. Curandola bene a casa eviti non solo ospedalizzazione, ma anche il rischio trombotico. Non era facile capirlo perché i segni della microembolia sono sfumati, anche all’ecocardio. Ma questo week end ho confrontato i dati dei primi 50 pazienti tra chi respira male e chi no e la situazione è apparsa molto chiara. Per me si può tornare a giocare e riaprire l’attività commerciali. Via quarantena. Non subito. Ma il tempo di pubblicare questi dati. Vaccino può arrivare con calma. In America e altri stati che seguono la letteratura scientifica che invita a NON usare antinfiammatori e’ un disastro! Peggio che in Italia. E sono farmaci vecchi e che costano pochi euro.”
(Associated Medias – Red/Giut)
———
3) 追記
これ↓はどうも違う、ということのようです。
FDAが、COVID-19への非ステロイド性抗炎症薬（NSAIDs）使用について助言, 2020年4月1日
ケドラヤのコメントも反論の１つとして乗せてあるだけ。この記事自体は賛否どっちにも誘導しようとせずに公平であろうとしているよ。下にこう書いてあるじゃない。
「In the world of mathematics, a journal’s seal of approval is often not the end of the peer-review process. An important result only truly becomes an accepted theorem after the community has reached a consensus that it is correct, and this can go on for years after a paper’s official publication.」
「ネットde真実を止めろ」というくせに、原典に当たらずに自分に都合のいいネット情報を組み合わせてるだけなんだよお前
When to use a mask
・If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
・Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
・Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
・If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.
マスクを装着すべきケース
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その１https://anond.hatelabo.jp/20200327214055
12 Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura is one of the few professionals of mathematical models of infectious diseases in Japan, and it is well known that his ability is outstanding. However, many people don't understand mathematical models themselves (I must confess that I can't say that I understand all of the findings because I'm not a professional of mathematical models either), so his findings and comments are easily deified. Because the contents of the mathematical model are a complete black box to many people, it makes it seem like the oracle is coming out like a shrine's oracle. Much of Japan's infection control policy relies on the Nishiura theory. So there is nothing wrong with that, but one of the problems in Japan is that there is no plan B in case plan A goes bust. Dr. Nishiura is an excellent scholar. It is not God. Hence the need to have that Plan B with the possibility of making a mistake. I am greatly concerned that bureaucrats and politicians who are prone to infallibilism will mistake science for an oracle. It is only when falsifiability is assured that science can continue to be scientific.
感想：おみくじと神託が同じoracleだったので変な文章になったが直していない。
13 数理モデルは演繹法の活用産物である。演繹法は帰納法やアブダクションで補完するのが、学問の基本であり、臨床医学の常識である。演繹法的にどんなに正しく見えても実はそれは違っていた、ということはこの業界ではよくあることなのだ。ヘーゲルやマルクスのような巨大な知性でも演繹法オンリーでは間違うのである。
Mathematical models are the product of deductive methods. The deductive method is complemented by the inductive or abduction method, which is the basis of scholarship and the common sense of clinical medicine. It's a common occurrence in this industry that no matter how deducibly correct it may seem, it's actually not true. Even a huge intellect like Hegel or Marx can make a mistake by deduction alone.
感想：「蓋を開けてみれば」を「実はそれは」に変更した。
14 モデルを使うな、といっているのでは決してない。ぼく自身、モデルを用いて論文を書く。しかし、モデルは無謬ではなく、そこには前提である仮定があり、仮定はしばしば間違っている。グラム染色を活用するとは、グラム染色にできないこと、分からないことを知悉していることであり、グラム染色万能論者にグラム染色は使えない。同じことだ。英国でも数理モデルは活用されているが、だからこそ英国人はその結語には非常に懐疑的で、常に反論、異論が起きている。健全で科学的な態度である。
I'm not saying don't use the model at all. I myself write a paper using a model. However, the model is not infallible, there are assumptions that are assumptions, and the assumptions are often wrong. Making use of Gram's stain means having full knowledge of what Gram's stain cannot do and does not understand, and Gram's stain cannot be used by Gram's stain universalists. It's the same thing. Mathematical models are also utilized in the UK, which is why Brits are very sceptical of their conclusions, and there are always counter-arguments and objections. It is a sound and scientific attitude.
感想：「前提たる仮定」がうまく訳せていなかったので「前提である仮定」にしたが、assumptions that are assumptionsになってしまった。
「英国人は」がないと主語がIになってしまったので追加した。しかしBritsじゃ意味違うよ。もっと正しく訳してくれない？
15 Japan's "now" is a well-controlled state of infection, which is much better than Wuhan at its worst, or Italy, Spain, France, England, or New York at the present time. The problem is that it doesn't guarantee that it will "always work".
16 懸念されるのは東京だ。感染報告が増えたことだけが問題なのではない。クラスターを形成できない、トレースできない感染者が増えているのが問題である。そして、その陽性患者数に比べて検査数がずっと少ない。47人の感染者を捕捉するために100人未満（陽性者の検査日が不明だが、おそらくこのへんだろう）しか検査していないのは少なすぎる。
It is Tokyo that is of concern. The increase in reports of infection is not the only problem. The problem is that more and more infected people are unable to form clusters and cannot be traced. And the number of tests is much lower than that number of positive cases; it's too little that they only tested less than 100 people (the date of testing for the positives is unknown, but it's probably around here) to capture 47 infected people.
Again, it's not necessary to figure out all the infected people. However, it is troubling that the flow of infection, movement and clusters are out of sight. Therefore, the threshold for testing must be lowered in Tokyo. The threshold for testing varies with the circumstances. That's what I explained with the Korean example. Sticking to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's "standards" will lead to a misunderstanding of the phenomenon itself. Already in the Kansai region, infected people have been found with taste and smell abnormalities, and clusters have been detected from there. I would like to make more use of the athletic sensibilities of these clinicians. I'm not sure "where" in Tokyo is the barrier to lowering the number of inspections, but that barrier needs to be removed immediately.
感想：「捕捉するのに」を「捕捉するために」に変更した。多分これでいいと思う。思いたい。
アスチュートがathleticになっているのはどう反応したらいいかわからない。
17 This conceptual diagram that everyone is looking at - lowering the peak of the infection and shifting it to the side. This is all a product of deduction, and I don't know if it's really true. As mentioned above, the UK estimates already suggest that this is not enough. It is possible that the damage that was shifted to the side could simply be "extra-long damage".
18 そして、ここが肝心なのだが、ピークを下げるという理念が、「ピークを下げなければいけない」という観念になり、「ピークは下がっているはずだ」という確信になり、「ピークは起きていないんだ」という自己暗示に転じてはいけないということだ。プランAに固執する日本あるあるの失敗のパターンで、ダイヤモンド・プリンセスでは「二次感染が起きてはいけない」が「起きているはずがない」に転じてノーガード下船を許してしまった。「ピークが起きてはいけない」が「ピークなんて見たくない」にならないように現実を見据える必要がある。たとえ、それが我々の見たくない不都合な真実であったとしても。
And this is the key point: the idea of lowering the peak should not become the notion that the peak must be lowered, or the belief that the peak must be lowered, or the self-implication that the peak is not happening. In a pattern of Japanese failure to stick to Plan A, Diamond Princess allowed no-guard disembarkation by changing "secondary infection should not occur" to "it can't have happened". We need to keep our eyes on reality so that "peak shouldn't happen" doesn't become "I don't want to see a peak. Even if it is an inconvenient truth that we don't want to see.
感想：mustが違う文脈で二回出てきている。よくわかるように変更したいものだ。
カギカッコがないとうまく訳せなかったので追加しているが、なぜかカッコ閉じるがいくつか抜けている。この箇所以外にも抜けがある。
19 Repeatedly. It's common knowledge in this industry that deductive methods are complemented by inductive methods. Nevertheless, PCR is often false-negative and has little power to determine the status of infection. That's why "testing everything" is so wrong. However, a serum test measuring immunoglobulin IgM and IgG would provide a more accurate picture of the "status of infection in the population. This, however, is not infallible. It is difficult to use for individual cases because it misses early infection, which is why it misses early HIV infection.Whether antibody testing is useful in individual cases remains to be tested, but it is well suited for epidemiological studies on a population basis. Roughly speaking, we can confirm whether the "infection is rampant" in Tokyo right now, or whether it's just an unfounded fear.
前例としては、ロンドンの血清検査で09年パンデミックインフルエンザが従来予測の10倍起きていたことが血清検査でわかっている。抗体検査はアウトブレイクのあとで事後的に行うことが多いが、慢性的パンデミックになりつつあるCOVID-19については、「今」こそが検証のポイントといって良い。
As a precedent, serology tests in London showed that the 2009 pandemic flu was 10 times more likely than previously predicted. Antibody testing is often performed after an outbreak, but now is a good time to examine COVID-19, which is becoming a chronic pandemic.
感想：「前例はあって」を「前例としては」に変えた。「前例はある。なおかつロンドンで〜１０倍起きていた」になってしまったからだ。
20 英国はさらにアグレッシブだ。家庭で抗体検査を行い、「感染者である」とわかればそれを自宅での自己隔離の根拠に使おうというのだ。ロックダウンが起きている中で、検査陰性は「自己隔離不要」を意味しないため、その戦略に欠陥はある。が、考え方としては「感染全体を抑え込みたい」というもので、検討の価値はあると思う。
The UK is even more aggressive. The idea is to test for antibodies at home, and if they are found to be infected, they will use it as a basis for self-isolation at home. That strategy is flawed because with the lockdown in place, a negative test does not mean "no self-sequestration". However, the idea is that we want to control the infection as a whole, and I think it is worth considering.
21 東京でどのくらいの感染が起きているか、帰納法的確認は必要であり、有用だ。その結果がどうなるかは預言者ではないぼくには分からない。が、どんな結果が出てきても、それを受け入れ、場合によっては自説を変えて、プランBに移行することにも躊躇しない態度が科学者には必要だ。科学者は、首尾一貫していないことにかけて、首尾一貫していなければならないのだ。形式においては首尾一貫していなくても、プリンシプルやプロフェッショナリズムにおいて一貫しなければならないのだ。事実に誠意を。
Inductive legal confirmation of how many infections are occurring in Tokyo is necessary and useful. I'm not a prophet, so I don't know what the outcome will be.However, no matter what the outcome, scientists need to accept it and not hesitate to change their thesis and move on to Plan B in some cases. Scientists have to be coherent in their inconsistencies.They may not be coherent in form, but they must be coherent in principles and professionalism. Good faith in the facts.
感想：首尾一貫という言葉を使いすぎて文章をアホっぽくしてしまったが他にいい方法が思いつかない。朝三暮四は理解してくれなかった。「自説を曲げ」は「自説を変えて」に変更した。
文章はもう少し整形できると思うがとりあえずこれで。
https://georgebest1969.typepad.jp/blog/2020/03/事実に誠意を.html
これが原文です。
外国から問い合わせが来ているけれども時間がなくて訳せないということで、DeepLの性能確認ついでにやってみました。
この私訳と岩田健太郎先生は無関係なのでよろしくお願いします。
訳された文章を原文と見比べ、翻訳で文章がおかしくなったところや慣用句は「必ず日本語側の文章をいじることで」できるだけ解消しました。
よって改変した文章だけをこちらに載せ、改変する必要がなかったところは段落番号しか載せていません。元文章は元ブログを当たってください。
英語に詳しいパーソンが精査していただけると幸いです。
1 Most of what I'm about to write is no different from what I've said and done in the past. However, I have been asked the same question repeatedly, so I would like to reiterate it. We have received many inquiries from overseas as well, so we should have prepared the same content in English, but due to time constraints, I'm afraid I'll have to skip it. This article is designed to be read without basic knowledge of infectious diseases and jargon, but it is rather difficult to understand. Please forgive me for that.
感想：「Chromeかなにかでそれぞれ母国語に訳してお読みいただけると幸いです。」がきれいさっぱり消えている。DeepLの自負心だろう。
2 The fact that the number of COVID-19 reports in Japan is very low compared to other countries is attracting attention from home and abroad. Is it true? It has been pointed out that the number of tests is so small that we may be misreading the actual number of infected people.
3 However, this point is wrong at various layers. In the first place, Japan does not aim to capture all the numbers of COVID-19. Whether it's administrative testing or insured care, the state basically has a testing strategy in mind to diagnose, hospitalize, and isolate critically ill patients who need to be hospitalized. It is natural that they "haven't figured it out" and they don't intend to. That's not a bad thing.In fact, the situation is the same in every country, large or small, and no country, whether in the United States, Europe, or Asia, is aiming to "capture the whole number.
感想：最後の文はなぜか他の文と一緒に入力すると訳してくれなかった。この文一つだけ入力すると訳してくれた。
よく考えると「多かれ少なかれ」は通じないだろうから直した方がよかった。なぜかDeepLに繋がらなくなったのでもう直せない。
WHOもそんなことは求めていない。もっとも、そのわりに日本は帰国者無症状者にPCRをやってみたり、無症状な検査陽性者を入院隔離させてみたり（軽症者は自宅じゃなかったの？）、プリンシプルにおいて首尾一貫していない。だから、「彼らがなにがやりたいか私たちはよくわからない」ので、人々は不安になる。リスコミにおける失敗と言えよう。
The WHO is not asking for such a thing. But instead, Japan gives PCR to asymptomatic returnees and isolates asymptomatic test-positive people in hospital (wasn't it home for people with minor illnesses?). It has not been coherent in its principles. So, people get anxious because "we're not sure what they want to do". It's a failure in the press.
感想：「なにがやりたいかよくわからない」に主語を付与する必要があった。リスコミがpressになった。よくわかったな。
「〜は自宅じゃなかったの？）、」の、が.になっているのがよくわからない。なぜかDeepLに繋がらなくなったのでもう直せない。
4 The difference between Korea and Japan is the "result" and not the "purpose". In South Korea, where the number of infected people had surged in one place, we had to focus on inspections in and around the area. If such a phenomenon (let's call it an overshoot) occurs in Japan, the number of inspections will increase. When the situation is different, arguing only on the basis of the number of tests without observing the situation is like trying to say, "That team made 50 sliding tackles while this team made only one," without watching a football game. In games where you don't have to slide (e.g., when you're in possession the whole time), even 0 times isn't a "mistake," and of course 50 times isn't a mistake.
5 全数把握ができていない疾患など山のようにある。日本ではインフルエンザの「全数」把握はしておらず、定点観測である。疫学上、感染対策上、それで十分な情報が得られているからだ。日本で毎年風邪が何例発生しているか、正確に把握したデータはない。レセプトデータを見ればわかるじゃないか、というのも間違いで、なぜなら多くの風邪患者は（ぼくのように）受診せずに自然に治るまで待っている。医療に限らず、経済学でも政治学でもデータはサンプリングから母数を推定するのがほとんどで、「全数」は非効率的な状態把握法なのだ。
There are many diseases for which the total number of patients is not known. In Japan, we do not have a "total" number of influenza cases, but only a fixed-point observation. Because that's enough information, both epidemiologically and in terms of infection control. There is no accurate data on how many cases of the common cold occur each year in Japan. It's also a mistake to say that you can tell by looking at the receipt data, because many cold patients (like me) don't see a doctor and wait until they are cured naturally. Not only in medicine, but also in economics and political science, data are mostly based on sampling to estimate population numbers, and "whole numbers" is an inefficient way of grasping the situation.
感想：ちょこちょこ変えてある。日本語の文章が多少おかしくなっているのは勘弁してほしい。接続詞を適切に入れると格段に翻訳が正確になる。
6 We have not seen the devastation in Japan as in Italy, Spain or New York City. There is no medical collapse in a critically ill patient, no use of the operating room as an ICU, no piling up of bodies on a skating rink with no place to put them. Even if the "numbers" are not known, it is a fact that the current situation in Japan (including Tokyo) is much better controlled than in other countries.
7 Even so, you may be interested in "Well, what about the actual situation? There are estimates. For example, Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura and his group estimate that the number of mild illnesses in Japan may be twice the reported number. The catch rate is 0.44, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.37-0.50.
8 Although the study was based on data from China, there is no guarantee that the Chinese COVID-19 demographic is the same as the Japanese one. Also, since the original study did not include asymptomatic patients or those with minor illnesses that did not require hospitalization, the number of infected patients estimated on that basis would inevitably be an underestimate. If you are more paranoid, it's not unreasonable to believe that "the Japanese and Chinese viruses are different because of the mutation" (although I don't think so).
9 This does not diminish the value of the paper itself. The model must always use existing parameters, and it is often impossible to prove the external validity of these parameters. If the underlying parameters are not reasonable, the predictions will not be correct. A model assumes a simplified world insofar as it is a model. A model without simplification, which is an adjectival contradiction.
数理モデルのこうした「前提」にイチャモンを付けるのは、例えばAという疾患を対象にランダム化比較試験をしたときに、「Bという疾患については説明できないじゃないか」と文句を言うようなもので、業界の仁義に反する意味のない揚げ足取りである。
To complain about these "assumptions" of the mathematical model is like complaining, for example, "You can't explain disease B," when a randomized controlled trial is conducted for disease A. This is a meaningless tirade against the honor of the industry.
感想；「分からない」を「説明できない」に変えた。多分これでいいと思う。思いたい。
However, it is different for the reader of the paper.
A mathematical model that assumes a certain hypothesis should have internal academic validity, but it is the responsibility of the reader, as a resident of the real world, to appraise it in the real world.
Aという疾患を対象にしたRCTの知見をBという疾患に使ってはならないように、数理モデルの制限を理解し、現実世界にアプライするときに十分注意するのは当然だ。
Just as the RCT findings for disease A should not be used for disease B, it is natural to understand the limitations of the mathematical model and to be careful when applying it to the real world. For example, it would be wrong to read the paper and conclude that the total number of infected people in Tokyo is about 500 as of March 26.
感想；「読み手は別である」を「読み手にとっては別である」に変更し、「制限や限界」は「limitations and limitations」になったので片方削った。
11 People make mistakes. The models are also wrong. Being wrong is not a big deal. The problem is to notice your mistakes and make corrections. Already, a group at Imperial College London has admitted that its original estimate that the peak of the infection should be moderated was "wrong" and has revised its prediction that the ICU will soon fail if it does not fight the virus fairly aggressively.
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I am currently working at a factory in a department where I work day shift and night shift. My workplace is in the countryside, where the nearest station is a station where only regular trains stop, and I live in a cheap apartment near a station where only regular trains stop. If I work the night shift, I have to wait for the train for 30 minutes no matter when it ends.
I once hated these 30 minutes.
Factory work is boring. It just repeats the same process. The only way I can cope with boredom is to think while working, or to take advantage of the noisy environment and sing at a decent volume. I didn't want to spend 30 minutes of idle time after such boredom was over, I wanted to go home early, eat, drink and go to bed, and I had no other feelings.
About this time last year, I started writing down things I'd been thinking about in my workday when I was bored, as a 30-minute reprieve from boredom. I am not a smart man, as many factory workers probably are. The longest I've ever written is perhaps a two-page, one-line book report.I struggled to come up with the best way to express myself while I was on shift, and I wrote it down while smoking a cigarette in the smoking area near the station. I can write about 1,000 or 2,000 words, more than three times the length of two pages and one line, without any difficulty.
Thus, I started to use these 30 minutes only for writing. Since then, I've spent my days finding something to write about for those 30 minutes, figuring out how to write it during my shift, and actually writing it while waiting the train.
I got a glimpse of the joy of writing freely, writing words that no one else will ever know.
And now, for the first time, I'm writing with the intention of getting others to read it.
On the first day of December, it was decided that I would be reassigned to a department that did not have a night shift, starting in April. It's a full-time day job that I've been waiting for for the last year, but after April I might be away from writing. When I thought about this, I felt the urge to have someone else read my writing.
I started this writing on December 2, 9 night shifts = 4.5 hours, so far about 800 words. Oddly enough, it's close to two pages and one line. The moment I want someone to read my writing, I find it very difficult to write. However, I'm proud to say that this text makes a lot more sense than the two pages and one line I once wrote, and above all, I was never bored while writing it.
I wonder if I will still be writing since April. We won't know that until the time is right. However, I will say this.
I now love to wait 30 minutes for the train after my night shift.
I am currently working at a factory in a department where I work day shift and night shift. My workplace is in the countryside, where the nearest station is a station where only regular trains stop, and I live in a cheap apartment near a station where only regular trains stop. If I work the night shift, I have to wait for the train for 30 minutes no matter when it ends.
I once hated these 30 minutes.
Factory work is boring. It just repeats the same process. The only way I can cope with boredom is to think while working, or to take advantage of the noisy environment and sing at a decent volume. I didn't want to spend 30 minutes of idle time after such boredom was over, I wanted to go home early, eat, drink and go to bed, and I had no other feelings.
About this time last year, I started writing down things I'd been thinking about in my workday when I was bored, as a 30-minute reprieve from boredom. I am not a smart man, as many factory workers probably are. The longest I've ever written is perhaps a two-page, one-line book report.I struggled to come up with the best way to express myself while I was on shift, and I wrote it down while smoking a cigarette in the smoking area near the station. I can write about 1,000 or 2,000 words, more than three times the length of two pages and one line, without any difficulty.
Thus, I started to use these 30 minutes only for writing. Since then, I've spent my days finding something to write about for those 30 minutes, figuring out how to write it during my shift, and actually writing it while waiting the train.
I got a glimpse of the joy of writing freely, writing words that no one else will ever know.
And now, for the first time, I'm writing with the intention of getting others to read it.
On the first day of December, it was decided that I would be reassigned to a department that did not have a night shift, starting in April. It's a full-time day job that I've been waiting for for the last year, but after April I might be away from writing. When I thought about this, I felt the urge to have someone else read my writing.
I started this writing on December 2, 9 night shifts = 4.5 hours, so far about 800 words. Oddly enough, it's close to two pages and one line. The moment I want someone to read my writing, I find it very difficult to write. However, I'm proud to say that this text makes a lot more sense than the two pages and one line I once wrote, and above all, I was never bored while writing it.
I wonder if I will still be writing since April. We won't know that until the time is right. However, I will say this.
I now love to wait 30 minutes for the train after my night shift.
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を読んだ。しかし、ありーちぇ氏(@ALC_V)の英文法の解釈には疑問を感じる。
ありーちぇ氏は次のように述べる。
WHO recommends testing contacts of confirmed cases only if they show symptoms of COVID-19を普通に翻訳すると「WHOは感染確定例との接触者について、COVID-19の兆候を示している場合には、検査を推奨する」
和訳自体は問題ないとは思うが、英文法の解釈は誤っていると思われる。
異なるのは、〈句〉はその内部に〈Ｓ＋Ｖ〉（主語＋述語動詞）を持たないのに対し、〈節〉はその内部に〈Ｓ＋Ｖ〉を持つという点です
そして一般的には副詞節は、主節の動詞または主節全体を修飾する働きを持つ。
このように動詞を説明〔修飾〕したり，文全体を修飾したりするものを「副詞」といいますが，When…childは語がいくつか集まってできた「副詞のカタマリ」と言えます。このカタマリの中に＜主語＋動詞＞を含む「節」が含まれているので「副詞節」と言います。つまり，この従属節は副詞の働きをする副詞節というわけです。
従って、
WHO recommends testing contacts of confirmed cases only if they show symptoms of COVID-19
の only if 副詞節は主節のrecommendsを修飾していると解釈すべきであろう(主節全体を修飾しているとも考えられるが、この文章の場合はどちらと解釈しても意味はほとんど変わらないだろう)。
以上を踏まえて、件のバズフィードの和訳は考える。
only if 副詞節はrecommendsを修飾しているので、
"COVID-19の症状を示している場合においてのみ"ー＞"...を推奨しています"
みなさんこんにちは。
過去1週間で、COVID-19のケースが急速にエスカレートしました。
現在、中国よりも他の地域で多くの症例と死亡が報告されています。
また、学校を閉鎖したり、スポーツイベントやその他の集会をキャンセルしたりするなど、社会的距離の測定が急速に拡大していることも確認しています。
しかし、テスト、隔離、および連絡先の追跡における緊急の十分なエスカレーションは確認されていません。これは、応答のバックボーンです。
社会的距離測定は、伝播を減らし、医療システムが対処できるようにするのに役立ちます。
ひじに手を洗って咳をすることで、あなた自身や他の人のリスクを減らすことができます。
しかし、彼らだけでは、このパンデミックを消すのに十分ではありません。違いを生むのは組み合わせです。
私が言い続けているように、すべての国は包括的なアプローチをとらなければなりません。
しかし、感染を防ぎ、命を救う最も効果的な方法は、感染の連鎖を断ち切ることです。そして、それを行うには、テストして分離する必要があります。
目隠しされた火と戦うことはできません。そして、誰が感染しているかわからなければ、このパンデミックを止めることはできません。
テスト、テスト、テスト：すべての国に簡単なメッセージがあります。
検査結果が陽性の場合、それらを隔離し、症状が発現する2日前までに密接に接触していた人を見つけ、それらの人も検査します。[注：WHOは、COVID-19の症状を示す場合にのみ、確認されたケースの連絡先をテストすることを推奨しています]
毎日、世界的な需要を満たすために、より多くのテストが作成されています。
WHOは120か国にほぼ150万のテストを出荷しています。私たちは企業と協力して、最も困っている人のためにテストの可用性を高めています。
WHOは、感染を予防し、適切なケアを提供するために、確認されたすべての症例は、軽度の症例であっても、医療施設で隔離されるべきだと助言しています。
しかし、多くの国がすでに専用の医療施設で軽度の症例をケアする能力を超えていることを認識しています。
そのような状況では、国々は高齢の患者と基礎疾患のある患者を優先すべきです。
いくつかの国では、スタジアムとジムを使用して軽度の症例をケアし、重症で重大な症例を病院でケアすることで能力を拡大しています。
別の選択肢は、軽度の病気の患者を自宅で隔離して世話をすることです。
感染した人を自宅でケアすることは、他の人を同じ家庭に危険にさらす可能性があります。そのため、できる限り安全にケアを提供する方法について、介護者がWHOのガイダンスに従うことが重要です。
たとえば、患者と介護者の両方が同じ部屋にいるときは、医療用マスクを着用する必要があります。
患者は、他の人とは別の寝室で寝て、別の浴室を使用する必要があります。
一人の患者、理想的には健康で基礎疾患のない人をケアする人を割り当てます。
介護者は、患者またはその身近な環境に触れた後、手を洗う必要があります。
COVID-19に感染した人は、気分が悪くなった後でも他の人に感染する可能性があるため、これらの対策は症状が消えてから少なくとも2週間は継続する必要があります。
===
繰り返しますが、重要なメッセージは、テスト、テスト、テストです。
これは深刻な病気です。私たちが持っている証拠は、60歳以上の人が最も危険にさらされていることを示唆していますが、子供を含む若者は死にました。
WHOは、子供、高齢者、妊婦のケア方法に関する具体的な詳細を含む新しい臨床ガイダンスを発行しました。
これまでのところ、先進的な医療システムを備えた国で流行が見られました。しかし、彼らも対処するのに苦労しています。
ウイルスが低所得国に移動するにつれて、HIV感染率の高い人口や栄養失調の子供たちにウイルスが与える影響について深く懸念しています。
だからこそ、私たちはすべての国とすべての人に、感染を止めるためにできる限りのことをするよう呼びかけています。
手を洗うことは、感染のリスクを減らすのに役立ちます。しかし、それは連帯の行為でもあります。なぜなら、あなたのコミュニティや世界中の人々に感染するリスクを減らすからです。自分のために、他の人のために。
また、医薬品などの不可欠なアイテムを買いだめすることを控えることにより、連帯を表現するよう人々に求めます。
買いだめは薬や他の必須製品の不足を引き起こし、苦痛を悪化させる可能性があります。
COVID-19連帯対応基金に貢献したすべての人に感謝します。
金曜日にローンチして以来、110,000人を超える人々が約1,900万米ドルを寄付しました。
これらの資金は、診断テスト、医療従事者向けの消耗品の購入、研究開発の支援に役立ちます。
貢献したい場合は、who.intにアクセスして、ページ上部のオレンジ色の「寄付」ボタンをクリックしてください。
また、社会のさまざまな部門が集まっていることにも感謝しています。
これはSafeHands Challengeから始まりました。このチャレンジは、有名人、世界のリーダー、そしてあらゆる場所で手を洗う方法を示す人々を魅了しました。
今日の午後、WHOと国際商工会議所は、グローバルなビジネスコミュニティに共同で行動を呼びかけました。ICCは、従業員、顧客、地域社会を保護し、不可欠な物資の生産と流通をサポートするために、4500万を超える企業のネットワークに定期的なアドバイスを送信します。
ポールポルマン、アジャイバンガ、ジョンデントンのサポートとコラボレーションに感謝します。
また、WHOはGlobal Citizenと協力して、世界中の主要なミュージシャンとの一連のバーチャルコンサートであるSolidarity Sessionsを立ち上げています。
===
今後数日、数週間、数か月は、私たちの決意のテスト、科学への信頼のテスト、そして連帯のテストになります。
このような危機は、人類に最高と最悪をもたらす傾向があります。
私と同じように、バルコニーから医療従事者を称賛する人々のビデオや、地域の高齢者のために食料品の買い物をすることを申し出ている人々の物語に感動したと確信しています。
人間の連帯というこの驚くべき精神は、ウイルス自体よりもさらに感染力を高めなければなりません。しばらくは物理的に離れていなければならないかもしれませんが、これまでにない方法で一緒に集まることができます。
私たちは皆一緒にいます。そして、私たちは一緒にしか成功できません。
ありがとうございました。
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 16 March 2020
16 March 2020
In the past week, we have seen a rapid escalation of cases of COVID-19.
More cases and deaths have now been reported in the rest of the world than in China.
We have also seen a rapid escalation in social distancing measures, like closing schools and cancelling sporting events and other gatherings.
But we have not seen an urgent enough escalation in testing, isolation and contact tracing – which is the backbone of the response.
Social distancing measures can help to reduce transmission and enable health systems to cope.
Handwashing and coughing into your elbow can reduce the risk for yourself and others.
But on their own, they are not enough to extinguish this pandemic. It’s the combination that makes the difference.
As I keep saying, all countries must take a comprehensive approach.
But the most effective way to prevent infections and save lives is breaking the chains of transmission. And to do that, you must test and isolate.
You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected.
We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test.
If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to 2 days before they developed symptoms, and test those people too. [NOTE: WHO recommends testing contacts of confirmed cases only if they show symptoms of COVID-19]
Every day, more tests are being produced to meet the global demand.
WHO has shipped almost 1.5 million tests to 120 countries. We’re working with companies to increase the availability of tests for those most in need.
WHO advises that all confirmed cases, even mild cases, should be isolated in health facilities, to prevent transmission and provide adequate care.
But we recognize that many countries have already exceeded their capacity to care for mild cases in dedicated health facilities.
In that situation, countries should prioritize older patients and those with underlying conditions.
Some countries have expanded their capacity by using stadiums and gyms to care for mild cases, with severe and critical cases cared for in hospitals.
Another option is for patients with mild disease to be isolated and cared for at home.
Caring for infected people at home may put others in the same household at risk, so it’s critical that care-givers follow WHO’s guidance on how to provide care as safely as possible.
For example, both the patient and their care-giver should wear a medical mask when they are together in the same room.
The patient should sleep in a separate bedroom to others and use a different bathroom.
Assign one person to care for the patient, ideally someone who is in good health and has no underlying conditions.
The care-giver should wash their hands after any contact with the patient or their immediate environment.
People infected with COVID-19 can still infect others after they stop feeling sick, so these measures should continue for at least two weeks after symptoms disappear.
Visitors should not be allowed until the end of this period.
There are more details in WHO’s guidance.
===
Once again, our key message is: test, test, test.
This is a serious disease. Although the evidence we have suggests that those over 60 are at highest risk, young people, including children, have died.
WHO has issued new clinical guidance, with specific details on how to care for children, older people and pregnant women.
So far, we have seen epidemics in countries with advanced health systems. But even they have struggled to cope.
As the virus moves to low-income countries, we're deeply concerned about the impact it could have among populations with high HIV prevalence, or among malnourished children.
That’s why we’re calling on every country and every individual to do everything they can to stop transmission.
Washing your hands will help to reduce your risk of infection. But it’s also an act of solidarity because it reduces the risk you will infect others in your community and around the world. Do it for yourself, do it for others.
We also ask people to express their solidarity by refraining from hoarding essential items, including medicines.
Hoarding can create shortages of medicines and other essential products, which can exacerbate suffering.
We’re grateful to everyone who has contributed to the COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund.
Since we launched it on Friday, more than 110,000 people have contributed almost 19 million U.S. dollars.
These funds will help to buy diagnostic tests, supplies for health workers and support research and development.
If you would like to contribute, please go to who.int and click on the orange “Donate” button at the top of the page.
We’re also grateful for the way different sectors of society are coming together.
This started with the SafeHands Challenge, which has attracted celebrities, world leaders and people everywhere demonstrating how to wash their hands.
This afternoon WHO and the International Chamber of Commerce issued a joint call to action to the global business community. The ICC will send regular advice to its network of more than 45 million businesses, to protect their workers, customers and local communities, and to support the production and distribution of essential supplies.
I’d like to thank Paul Polman, Ajay Banga and John Denton for their support and collaboration.
WHO is also working with Global Citizen to launch the Solidarity Sessions, a series of virtual concerts with leading musicians from around the world.
===
This is the defining global health crisis of our time.
The days, weeks and months ahead will be a test of our resolve, a test of our trust in science, and a test of solidarity.
Crises like this tend to bring out the best and worst in humanity.
Like me, I’m sure you have been touched by the videos of people applauding health workers from their balconies, or the stories of people offering to do grocery shopping for older people in their community.
This amazing spirit of human solidarity must become even more infectious than the virus itself. Although we may have to be physically apart from each other for a while, we can come together in ways we never have before.
We’re all in this together. And we can only succeed together.
So the rule of the game is: together.
Thank you.
We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test.
If they test positive, isolate them and find out who they have been in close contact with up to 2 days before they developed symptoms, and test those people too. [NOTE: WHO recommends testing contacts of confirmed cases only if they show symptoms of COVID-19]
増田が引用した部分は、「検査陽性だったら症状が出る二日前までに接触したすべての人を探して検査しろ（ただし、症状がない場合はその限りではない）」ってこと。
「WHOは、確定診断された患者に確実な接触があったと確認できる、症状があるケースについて「のみ」検査することを推奨しています」
とわざわざ強調してるんですよね。https://t.co/2nGVd1slTD— KGN (@KGN_works) March 17, 2020
該当箇所は
[NOTE: WHO recommends testing contacts of confirmed cases only if they show symptoms of COVID-19]
これって、確定診断された患者の接触者については、症状がある場合のみ検査を推奨する、だよね？
上のツイートだと、症状はあるけど接触なしは検査しないことになる
久々にみんな大好き・トレパクネタを書く。
今回見かけたのはラブライブ！というアニメ系コンテンツにおける二次創作界隈のトレパク問題だ（厳密には問題になんて発展していないのだが）。
ラブライブ！が何なのかはヒッキーのキモオタ諸君には特に説明は要らないと思うので省略する。
事の発端はミーマン氏という同人作家がネットに公開していたラブライブのファンアートが、公式サイドが企画する動画生配信において採用され見事な評価を獲得したものの、
それが公式ビジュアルのトレースではないかという疑義を向けられた事にある。
（疑義は正しく、実際にそれは公式ビジュアルからのトレースであることは疑いの無いところでありさらにミーマン氏も後にこれを認めている。）
そこからはいつものトレパク監査委員会の登場になる。いつものようにミーマン氏の過去の作品をサルベージして類似性を調査したところ、結構な枚数で公式ビジュアルからのトレースが確認された。
また、ラブライブのonly即売会（僕らのラブライブ！）においても有償頒布していた色紙にもそうした作品が少なからず含まれていたようだ。
トレパク監査委員会は著作権者に代わって刑の執行を行う権限も持っているので、そこから先はいつものようにミーマン氏への糾弾が始まったのだと俺は理解している。
無論批判の声はトレパク監査委員会にとどまらず、同じラブライブの二次創作同人誌やイラストを公開する同業者においても辛らつな持論（後述）が複数観測された。
しかし俺はそのミーマン氏の、動画生配信で採用されたという作品を見て愕然とした。
なんともオリジナリティに富んだ二次創作ではないか。色彩的にはサイケデリックとでも言うのか、派手ではあるもののDQNが喜びそうな原色ゴテゴテの下品さも感じない上に線の力強さも見事なもんである。
公式ビジュアルのトレースであることは疑いようは無いのだが、これでは確かに番組サイドが採用してしまうのも頷ける。
あれは明らかに音楽で言うところのリミックスやヒップホップのような、既存の音源を再利用したものに相当する立派な創作物であった。芸術の分野で言うところのコラージュという手法にも通じるものがある。
とはいえここまで書けば「どんなに素晴らしくてもトレスをした時点でアート失格」「トレスならトレスと書くべきだ」「金を取ったらアウトだろ」という声も当然予想できる。
しかし、俺は今回に関して言えばミーマン氏が数あるラブライブの二次創作作家の中で低劣なことをしていたとはとても思えないのだ。
もともとネットイナゴが好物にしているトレパク疑惑というのは大抵は他人の作品の異なるキャラクターの象形をなぞった形が多いのだが、今回は公式ビジュアルのキャラクターをそのまま再利用した形のトレスだ。
虹ヶ咲学園の逢坂しずくというキャラクターの公式イラストを、同じく虹ヶ咲学園の逢坂しずくとして、服飾のデザインも変えずに描き上げておりそれは他のキャラクターにおいても同様であった。
公式ビジュアルであると同時にキービジュアルでもある作画をトレスしていたのだからミーマン氏も「言わなくてもわかるだろ」という脇の甘い考えがあった可能性は否めない。
この白玉氏もまたラブライブの二次創作イラストや同人誌を頒布している作家の一人であり、技術も高い。
白玉氏の現在の作品は公式ビジュアルに酷似したタッチで描かれており、その水準は公式イラストに置き換えられる水準にあると言って良い。
近頃はとうとうラブライブ公式サイド（角川グループの雑誌）が企画するグッズのイラストの仕事まで受注するようになっているのでそこは疑いようが無いだろう。
そんな白玉氏はこう言った。
どうやら苦手だったトレス絵師がトレス指摘されて垢消ししたみたいだけど
謝罪も弁明もなく逃げるあたりやっぱり最後まで苦手な存在でしたね
その点逃げずにきちんと謝罪と返金対応までした彼はまだ立派だと思った
擁護するつもりはないけど
（※筆者注：「逃げずにきちんと謝罪と返金対応までした彼」というのはミーマン氏の事である。ミーマン氏は過去に頒布した者に対して返金対応を表明している）
いや、待てよ、そりゃ待てよと。
白玉さん、あなた去年ラブライブの同人誌を出していたし、この前はエロイラストまで公開していたよね？
それラブライブ公式サイドに無断でやってるよね？ 雑誌の仕事のほうはいいよ。だけど同人誌の頒布においては無断でかつ少なからずお金も取っているよね？
あなたのやってることはグレーでもなんでもなくて、著作権を持つ人がNGといえば一発でブラックだよ。ブラックかホワイトかの二択の世界だよ。
ラブライブの舞台設定やキャラの名前・衣装を下敷きにしたものを勝手に作って発表しておきながら、ミーマン氏が同じ二次創作においてトレースという工程を採用しているからといってそこまで言う資格があるかね？
金を取っているかどうかに関わらずこんなことは著作権者のジャッジがすべての世界じゃないか。
これは白玉氏に限らない。
大半のアニメの二次創作なんて「公式はこの程度のことでクレームをつけてこない、みんなやってる。文句が来たら誠実に対応しよう」という、考えようによってはゲスい魂胆で活動をしてるはずだよ。
だったらさ、ミーマン氏がトレースという工程を取っていた事についても「当事者同士の問題」ということで静観するのが、同じ二次創作界隈で活動する者としての最低限の行動規範っつーか作法じゃないのかい？
著作権者がアウトといえば金を取っていようが取っていまいが、借用元を明記していようが明記していまいが等しく悪なのだ。この点ではトレースという手法もあなたのやっていることも大きな差は無い。全員ギルティだ。
同じ無断二次創作をしておきながら「トレスで金取っちゃいかんでしょ」などと自分の都合で自分に累が及ばない形で善悪のラインを勝手に引くの、控えめに言ってもクズいぜ。
また、これも白玉氏に限らないが「トレスなんかに頼らず」とは何事だよ。同じ二次創作をやっている身でありながらなんでトレスという工程をそこまで蔑視するんだよ。
それは君たちに「自分のやってる二次創作の形の方が高尚」という意識があるからじゃねーの？
じゃあ「ラブライブなんかに頼らずオリジナル創作を描いた方が素敵です」って言われたら黙って創作やめるの？
トレスは著作権侵害の問題に発展しやすい、これは事実だ。だけど創作においてトレスが悪とはならないし「トレスはしない方がクリエイティブだ」とはならんでしょうが。
芸術方面の世界ではコラージュという技術手法も一定の地位にあるジャンルとして存在するし、モノによってはコラージュはトレス以上にオリジナル作品の含有性があるぞ。
あれだって著作権者がアウトと言えばアウトだけど、アートとして素敵かどうかという点においてはそこは評価軸にはならんでしょ。
ミーマン氏の作品はトレスを工程に取り入れたオリジナリティのある佳作だ。
それは公式が生配信で取り上げたことからしても一定の客観性はあると俺は思う。
あとのことは本人と著作権者との間の仁義の話、それでいいじゃないか。俺たち外野はただ黙って絵師ミーマンの創作物だけを評価すれば良いんだ。
著作権者に被害感情があるかどうかもわからないのに代弁者になった気になって騒ぐのが本当に著作権者のためになると思ってるのかよ。
一次創作を専門にする同人作家が君たちを馬鹿にしたら俺は全力で応戦しろと思うけど、現状の君たちがそのような有様ではとても心細い。
こんなものはせいぜい著作権者にこっそり伝えるぐらいに留めておくべきで、外野に良いか悪いかだのジャッジする権利なんて無いよ。
模写だってトレスだってそれらに該当しない二次創作だって同じ二次創作じゃん。
もうさ、版権ものの二次創作界隈の中でこういう差別感情をむき出しにしてマウント取り合うの、やめにしようぜ。絶対良いこと無いよ。
あとな、トレスで二次創作した奴にも著作権があるんだから勝手にトレパクだトレパクだと騒いでその画像をアップロードしてたら公式と二次創作者双方のダブルパンチを食らう可能性があることを忘れるな。
っつーか著作権侵害だなんだと騒ぐ奴が無断転載してんじゃねえよ。目的はそっちじゃなくて私的制裁を楽しむためだろ。そいつらも娯楽にふけるのもほどほどにしとけや。
アデュー。
元増田です。
株というよりは、債務、やはり借金は借金です。法律上は返済義務があります。話題のMMTがどう考えているのか、元増田はMMTの教科書を読んだことがないので理解していないのですが、マーケットや財政状況を無視して、いくらでも借金してよいとは考えていません。1982年のメキシコ、1987年のブラジル、1998年のロシア、2001年、2014年のアルゼンチン、2008年のエクアドル、2015年のギリシャなど、借金が返せずに国がひどいことになった例は歴史上いくつかあります。
ただ、企業でも少しの借金で倒産する会社もあれば、たくさん借金していても好調な会社があります。例えばアップルは有利子負債がとても多い会社ですが、だからと言ってアップルの経営について、債務残高が高いから危険だ、あんな会社に融資はできないとは誰も思っていませんよね。アップルの株はこの数年ですごく上がっていますし、アップルの社債の金利は極めて低いままです。それはアップルはiPhoneという安定的なキャッシュフローを供給してくれるビジネスがあるから、返済されないリスクはほとんどない、借り換えも利払いも問題ないと投資家が判断しているからです。国債の場合、国内で消化されていればますますです。償還されてもそれは国内に戻るからです。その際に民間に資金需要が旺盛ならば、償還を受けた投資家は国に貸してくれないかも知れませんが、そのような状況とはすなわち景気がよいということですから、国は税収で経費を賄うことができます。国債が政府機関、例えば中央銀行が保有していればさらに償還には問題ありません。なぜなら政府が支払った分はそのまま政府に戻ってくるからです。日本国債はほとんど国内で保有され、半分近くは日銀が保有しています。
企業の営業利益は、国でいえば一定期間の付加価値、GDPがそれに相当します。GDPをすべて債務の返済に充てることができないのと同じく、借金も全額直ちに返済しなければならないものではないので、対GDP比で注目すべきは、債務残高ではなく、GDPの増え方に対する利払い、もっと言うと政府機関―典型は中央銀行－保有分を除いた利払いなのです（これは元増田のオリジナルではなくて標準的なマクロ経済学の教科書の教えるところです。）。GDPが増える以上に利払いが上昇していなければ、マーケットは発行体の支払いは問題ないと判断し、残高が多くても借り換えに際しても問題が生じず、金利の上昇もないのです。逆に残高がゼロでも利払いがGDPの増え方と比較して増加していれば、持続性に問題が生じます。だから、元増田で書いたとおり、順調に借り換えができているものを無理にゼロにする必要はないし、その条件で貸してくれる人がいるのに期間に上限を決める必要はないし、毎年の予算に借り換え分を計上すると、かえって予算にとって何が負担になっているのかが正確にわからなくなるのです。ちなみに解散価値（国が解散したら大変ですが）、資産、すなわちストックで見ても問題ありません。日本は世界最大の債権大国です。
日本国債の利払い負担は現在9兆円弱、これはGDPが350兆円程度であった昭和50年代末-60年ごろと同じです。現在のGDPは560兆円。350万円の年収で年間9万円の利子を払うのに比べれば、560万円の年収で年間9万円を返済する（しかもうち4万円程度はそのまま収入になる）方が負担が軽いのは自明ですから、すべてのマスコミが日本は借金で沈没すると騒いでも、これまで借り換えに支障が生じたことは全くありませんし、金利も低下しています。債務の負担は今、著しく低いのです。
ご参考になれば。少々口の悪い人ですが
what's more, since the debt to GDP gang never look at the implicit debt created by government-granted patent and copyright monopolies, they are measuring nothing. Give them only ridicule, that is what they deserve
https://twitter.com/DeanBaker13/status/1232786049279021057
債務の持続可能性は名目成長率と利子率の関係を探ることによってあきらかになるとされています。
財政赤字が政府債務を増大させることは、必然でありあきらかなことのように思えます。しかしながら、この法則にはひとつの例外があります。Fed（連邦準備制度）が政府支出によってファイナンスされる拡張的財政政策を、発行された政府債券を購入することによって調和するときがそれです。Fedによって保有されている政府債務が増大しても、家計、非金融法人、民間企業、外国人によって保有される政府債務は増大しないということです 。このチャプターのもっとも重要なレッスンは、政府債務を購入するFedの能力が、そういう政策を取らなかった場合に取り逃したであろう、財政政策における行動範囲を提供する、ということです。
…アメリカ合衆国かどこかの国の財政赤字（deficit）が多すぎるか否か、私たちはどのように判断することができるでしょうか。問題にすべきは赤字がゼロかどうかではなく、むしろ、未払いの名目公的債務（D）の名目GDP（PY）に対する割合の安定性の基準がどうあるべきか、ということです。連邦政府の赤字は巨額になり得ますが、D/PYレシオは債務の増加にも関わらず安定的に保つことが可能です。
名目財政赤字は債務の変化（△D）に等しくなります。では、財政赤字はどこまで大きくなり、かつ債務対GDP比、D/PYは安定を保つことができるでしょうか？ 債務対GDP比の増加率がゼロであり続ける限り、安定的であり続けるでしょう。
それゆえ、私たちのタスクは、いかなる額の財政赤字が債務対GDP比の増加率をゼロにするか、決定することです。私たちは、債務対GDP比（D/PY）の増加率が、債務の増加率（d）とGDP名目成長率(p+y)の差である点に留意することから始めます。
D/PY増加率=d-(p+y) (6)
債務対GDP比の安定のためには、私たちは債務の増加率と名目GDP成長率(p+y)を等しくする必要があります。
d=p+y (7)
もし私たちが等式の両辺(7)を債務（D）の拡大により増加させた場合、私たちは許容可能な赤字（すなわち追加される債務）を獲得することになります。その分の赤字を増やしても、債務の対名目GDP比はコンスタントに保たれているのです。
dD=(p+y)D (0.05)（9,000billionドル）＝450billionドル (8)
このシンプルに表現された(8)は、驚くべき結論を導き出します。債務対GDP比は、もし赤字が未払いの債務にGDP名目成長率をかけたものと等しければ、一定に保たれるのです。数値をいれた例によると、連邦政府の2010年末時点の純債務は約9兆円でした。もしもGDPの名目成長率を5％と仮定すると、許容可能な赤字は4,500億ドルです。現在の財政赤字は2009年－2010年よりもはるかに大きな額ですが、それは債務対GDP比がこの期間に急速に増大したのかをあきらかにしています。
2008年から2010年、さらにその後の債務対GDP比の急上昇は、政治家と評論家の間で、オバマ政権が2009年から2010年に実施した初期の財政刺激プログラムを超えてさらなる財政出動をすることの実現可能性をめぐって、大論争を引き起こしました。"財政タカ派"は公的純債務（debt）の対GDP比の急上昇を指摘し、債務対GDP比の爆発を避けるために財政赤字（deficit）は削減しなければならないと主張しました。"財政ハト派"は高い失業率と弱い需要のもとではさらなる財政刺激が必要とされていると反論しました。実際のところ、金融政策の効果が弱体化した状況では、財政政策は唯一残されたツールだったのです。
財政赤字は2つのパートに分類することができます。基礎的赤字と未払いの純公的債務に対する利払いです。順番に、基礎的赤字は税収からtransfer paymentと利払い以外の政府支出を控除したものと等しくなります。2010年における多額の財政赤字は、多額の基礎的赤字と多額の純債務に対する利払いの合計によるものです。
しかしながら、債務がゼロと仮定しても、利払いの負担は、債務支払い可能なための条件（solvency condition）を満たさなければ、歯止めの利かない純債務対GDP比の上昇を引き起こすのです。この条件について、政府は、名目成長率(p+y)が現在の名目利子率に等しいかそれを上まわっていれば、政府証券を発行することにより、永久的に、債務対GDP比を上昇させることなく、利払いの請求を満たすことができる、と定義することができます。2010年末の純債務（net debt）が大まかに9兆ドル、という上記の例に戻りましょう。政府は等式(8)で示されているとおり、債務対GDP比を増加させることなく4500億ドルの赤字を出すことができます。その赤字のうちから、財務省証券の利払いのためにいくら支払わなければならないのでしょうか？もし利子率が5％で、等式で仮定された名目成長率と等しいとすれば、純債務に対する利払いは0.05×9兆ドル、すなわち4500億ドルです。このとおり、政府は利払いコストの全部を、4500億ドルの財務省証券を新たに発行することにより、債務対GDP比を増大させることなく、基礎的財政赤字をゼロとしたまま、支払うことができるのです。
Gordon, Robert J. "Macroeconomics: Twelfth Edition" (April 18, 2011) 、Chapter6 The Government Budget, the Government Debt, and the Limitations of Fiscal Policy
