The inspiration for it all began on our trip to the Amalfi Coast this spring, where Barclay and I became wholeheartedly convinced that we needed more 100%-from-scratch Italian food happening here at home in our little kitchen. Stat. So Barclay set his sights on perfecting homemade mozzarella this spring (more on that to come) and I came home ready to dive into the world of homemade pastas, gnocchis, and breads of all kinds. I even broke my minimalist no-new-kitchen-appliances-while-we’re-in-Europe rule and brought home an adorable little traditional pasta maker and wooden drying rack to make our pasta dreams come true.
First off, the fresh pasta dough itself is a breeze to make. If you happen to own a food processor, the dough can be prepped in less than 5 minutes. (Or you can make it by hand or in a stand mixer in less than 15 minutes.) The process of rolling out the noodles is also easier than I expected, especially once I got the hang of using my little pasta maker. (I’ve included instructions below as well for how to roll out pasta using a stand mixer or a rolling pin by hand.) I’ve also enjoyed experimenting with the various different pasta flours and discovering which ones I like best for different occasions. (Short answer — I prefer “00” flour most of the time, but occasionally mix it with semolina for heartier shapes or sauces.) Mostly, though, we’ve just enjoyed eating fresh pasta. It has such a delicious, fresh, chewy, unmistakable bite to it. And it has instantly kicked some of our favorite pasta recipes up a mega notch. (Here’s lookin’ at you, cacio e pepe!)
Also fun? Inviting a group of girlfriends over on a Friday night to share a bottle of rosé as we roll out a batch of homemade pasta together. And having leftover linigune in the fridge to pull out for a quick dinner on a busy weeknight. And surprising friends and neighbors with a tupperware full of cute little fresh pasta nests as gifts. And being “that home” that now has fresh pappardelle casually draped and drying by our sunny living room window.
So to continue with Italian Week here on the blog today, I am sharing everything I’ve learned so far about the art of making some seriously delicious homemade pasta. I’ve tried to include lots of different methods and options to work with whatever you have in your kitchen. So please poke around and find whatever method works best for you — and report back if you give homemade pasta a try! I would love to hear how it goes.
Flour: I really love to make my homemade pasta with “00” flour, which yields the silkiest pasta. But if I am making a sauce that is a bit more hearty, I will use half “00” and half semolina flour, which makes the pasta a bit more sturdy and helps the sauce to cling to the pasta better. That said, any of these three flours (or a combination of them) will work with this recipe:
Semolina flour: A heartier flour, which can help the pasta cling better to the sauce. (Semolina is also my favorite flour to sprinkle on the cutting board and pasta, while you are in the process of rolling out the dough.)
[Psychology] Anxiolytic Treatment Impairs Helping Behavior in Rats
said they were not aware they had left their babies in hot cars. In 43 percent of those cases, no charges were filed. In 32 percent of the cases, the caregiver was charged and convicted. And in 11 percent of the cases, the person was charged with a crime, but the judge or jury did not convict. The other 14 percent accounts for cases that are still open or the status is unknown.
[New York Times] He Left His Twins in a Hot Car and They Died. Accident or Crime?
“The type of parents that are this mindless would have to be drunk or high on drugs not to realize their child is in the vehicle. Or, they are trying to murder their child and avoid prison by claiming it was an accident.”
“And then this guy with this huge gun runs by us in the middle of the street and people are yelling, ‘He shot someone! He shot someone!’ And everyone is trying to fight the guy, chasing him, and then he started shooting again.”
I have noticed a rather superficial notion prevailing among half-informed foreigners, that because the common Japanese expression for one's wife is "my rustic wife" and the like, she is despised and held in little esteem. When it is told that such phrases as "my foolish father," "my swinish son," "my awkward self," etc., are in current use, is not the answer clear enough?
To me it seems that our idea of marital union goes in some ways further than the so-called Christian. "Man and woman shall be one flesh." The individualism of the Anglo-Saxon cannot let go of the idea that husband and wife are two persons;—hence when they disagree, their separate rights are recognized, and when they agree, they exhaust their vocabulary in all sorts of silly pet-names and—nonsensical blandishments. It sounds highly irrational to our ears, when a husband or wife speaks to a third party of his other half—better or worse—as being lovely, bright, kind, and what not. Is it good taste to speak of one's self as "my bright self," "my lovely disposition," and so forth? We think praising one's own wife or one's own husband is praising a part of one's own self, and self-praise is regarded, to say the least, as bad taste among us,—and I hope, among Christian nations too! I have diverged at some length because the polite debasement of one's consort was a usage most in vogue among the samurai.
なお『武士道』の初版は1899年。「戦後あたりから間違った意味で使われるようになった」というおまえの説と矛盾する。新渡戸稲造によるとWe think praising one's own wife or one's own husband is praising a part of one's own self（おのれの妻や夫を褒めるのはおのれ自身の一部を褒めることだと、我々は考える）というのだ。だからmy rustic wife（愚妻）のような表現を使うのだ、と新渡戸は言っている。したがって─
Admirers of Liszt would swarm over him, fighting over his handkerchiefs and gloves. Fans would wear his portrait on brooches and cameos. Women would try to get locks of his hair, and whenever he broke a piano string, admirers would try to obtain it in order to make a bracelet.
それでも町は廻っている And Yet the Town Moves
未来日記 Future Diary
あっちこっち Place to Place
だから僕は、Hができない。 So, I Can't Play H!
新世界より From the New World
好きっていいなよ Say I Love You
曇天に笑う Laughing Under the Clouds
天体のメソッド Celestial Method
Semen （精液）. Not sperm（精子）.
静謐(9), 三菱樹脂事件(5), 19条(5), ｵｯｻﾝ(4), ローラースケート(4), ひどーい(4), 臨床医(5), 4km(5), ダイナマイト(12), 玉座(6), 欠場(3), 児童ポルノ(43), ロリコン(66), 児童(45), オマエ(19), 正当化(12), 内心(41), 助長(12), 性犯罪者(17), 公言(13), 黒人(48), 性犯罪(32), 誹謗中傷(23), 合法(22), 規制(81), 白人(28), 犯罪(91), 専門家(36), 実在(22), 虐待(22), 二次元(16), 違法(18), 性的(56)
■子供を性的にみる内心の自由はない /20200609071250(51), ■お前ら全員死ね /20200609091821(25), ■静謐を好む教養人の年収の低さは異常 /20200609085620(23), ■ /20200609092144(18), ■飲酒運転は被害者不在ゆえ合法化すべき /20200609130724(10), ■ /20200609153942(10), ■なぜ人種差別してる人たちの為に差別反対運動するのか /20200609005726(9), ■高等遊民になりたい（追記） /20200609130955(9), ■疑問型の多い歌詞を募集 /20200609141458(9), ■日記書くよ /20200609190745(9), ■「内心は自由、公言したら警戒されても仕方ない」みたいなところに落ち着いてるのが腑に落ちない /20200609171047(7), ■煽りじゃなくてなんで全員に10万が良かったの？ /20200609195722(7), ■子会社「うちトヨタですよ？」 /20200609175118(7), ■いい年なのに、HIS /20200609103350(7), ■ /20200609094731(7), ■内心の自由っていうなら内心に留めておいてくれ /20200609125048(7), ■anond：20200609171902 /20200609172212(6), ■左右非対称のスポーツ /20200609121026(6), ■みんなこんなブースター使ってたのか /20200609123342(6), ■あおり運転一発免許取り消しやめてほしい /20200609175832(6), ■自殺したい /20200609132354(6), ■脇が臭いアラフォー女の話 /20200609092412(6), ■anond：20200609005726 /20200609160306(6), ■問題1: 教育のためには学問的に間違ったことを教えてもいいのか /20200609160622(6)
Imagine that you're sitting down to dinner with your family, and while everyone else gets a serving of the meal, you don't get any. So you say "I should get my fair share." And as a direct response to this, your dad corrects you, saying, "everyone should get their fair share." Now, that's a wonderful sentiment -- indeed, everyone should, and that was kinda your point in the first place: that you should be a part of everyone, and you should get your fair share also. However, dad's smart-ass comment just dismissed you and didn't solve the problem that you still haven't gotten any!
The problem is that the statement "I should get my fair share" had an implicit "too" at the end: "I should get my fair share, too, just like everyone else." But your dad's response treated your statement as though you meant "only I should get my fair share", which clearly was not your intention. As a result, his statement that "everyone should get their fair share," while true, only served to ignore the problem you were trying to point out.
That's the situation of the "black lives matter" movement. Culture, laws, the arts, religion, and everyone else repeatedly suggest that all lives should matter. Clearly, that message already abounds in our society.
The problem is that, in practice, the world doesn't work the way. You see the film Nightcrawler? You know the part where Renee Russo tells Jake Gyllenhal that she doesn't want footage of a black or latino person dying, she wants news stories about affluent white people being killed? That's not made up out of whole cloth -- there is a news bias toward stories that the majority of the audience (who are white) can identify with. So when a young black man gets killed (prior to the recent police shootings), it's generally not considered "news", while a middle-aged white woman being killed is treated as news. And to a large degree, that is accurate -- young black men are killed in significantly disproportionate numbers, which is why we don't treat it as anything new. But the result is that, societally, we don't pay as much attention to certain people's deaths as we do to others. So, currently, we don't treat all lives as though they matter equally.
しかしながら、現実社会においては決してその通りではなく、命の重みは平等ではありません。あなたは、Nightcrawlerという映画を見ましたか？その映画の中で、Renee RussoがJake Gyllenhalに対して、黒人もしくはラテン系アメリカ人が命を落とすような映像ではなく、裕福な白人が殺害されたといったようなニュースが欲しい、と伝えるシーンがあります。実はこのシーンは、ニュースの大部分の受け手である白人層が共感できるような報道を重視するというような、現実に即したメディアのバイアスを如実に反映しています。現実として、若い黒人男性が殺害されることはニュースにならない一方で、中年白女性の殺害事件はニュースとして世間に扱われます。さらに言えば、統計上有意に多数の若い黒人男性が日々命を落としてしまっているという現状において、そういった死のニュース性が少ないということは単なるバイアスとして存在するわけではなく、ほとんどの場合事実なのです。その結果、一部のグループの人々の死に対しては他のグループの人々の死ほどに、私たちは社会全体として注目しません。人の命は本来全て平等であるにも関わらず、現実として私たちはそれらを平等に扱っていないのです。
Just like asking dad for your fair share, the phrase "black lives matter" also has an implicit "too" at the end: it's saying that black lives should also matter. But responding to this by saying "all lives matter" is willfully going back to ignoring the problem. It's a way of dismissing the statement by falsely suggesting that it means "only black lives matter," when that is obviously not the case. And so saying "all lives matter" as a direct response to "black lives matter" is essentially saying that we should just go back to ignoring the problem.
あなたが父親に自分の分の食事を求めた時のように、"Black Lives Matter"というフレーズにも"too"、すなわち黒人の命”も”大切であるという前提があります。他の人種の人々の命と同様、黒人の命も大切に扱われるべきだ、というメッセージがそこにはあるのです。これに対して"All Lives Matter"と応えることは、その根底にある（黒人の命が他の命と同様に大切に扱われていないという）問題を恣意的に無視していることになるのです。そのような問題の共通認識が前提として明らかに存在しているにも関わらず、さも"黒人の命だけが大切だ"という主張であると曲解することで、"Black Lives Matter"という本来の主張を退けてしまっています。"Black Lives Matter"というメッセージに対して、"All Lives Matter"と応えることは、黒人の日々対峙するそのような問題を無視し、そのままの現状を維持しよう、と主張する事と本質的に変わりはないのです。
There’s something disturbing about Cuomo being hailed as the hero of the pandemic when he should rightly be one of the villains. As Business Insider notes, he is now only able to attain praise for his actions because his earlier failures made those actions necessary. He’s lauded for addressing a problem that he himself partly caused. Of course, part of this is because Donald Trump has bungled the coronavirus response even more badly, so that Cuomo – by not being a complete buffoon – looks like a capable statesman by contrast. But this is the problem: for too long, Democrats have measured their politicians by “whether they are better than Republicans”. This sets the bar very low indeed, and means that Democrats end up settling for incompetent and amoral leaders who betray progressive values again and again.
>> In France, after the new coronavirus was confirmed on January 24, 2020, a lot of harassment and discrimination against Asians occurred . It is aimed at Asians such as Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Vietnamese, Filipino , and taxis and trains that refuse to board Chinese, Korean, Japanese have appeared   ].
In the ranking of the number of infected people in the world, the United States is alone, with 1.34 million people, accounting for more than a quarter of the total infected people of 402 million people as of May 10.
I think that the trilingual diplomacy of Britain has created the situation in the Middle East, where terrorism is frequent nowadays, and has repeatedly carried out wrongdoing by repeatedly discriminating against blacks, Indians, and yellow races.
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1. Please take care of the elderly
2. Do not break social distancing rules and use homemade cloth masks
5. Look after poor people
6. Do not sack people if you are an employer
Bologna - From social media comes good news about the Coronavirus, perhaps decisive, which has scientific foundations and is disseminated by an authoritative doctor from Rizzoli of Bologna, Sandro Giannini. His is a highly qualified curriculum: Full Professor of Orthopedics and Traumatology and of Physical Medicine at the University of Bologna since 1989, director of Clinic I at the Rizzoli Orthopedic Institute and of the Gait Analysis Laboratory, partner in European projects and in national and international research programs, author of more than 600 presentations at national and international conferences and more than 400 articles in Science Citation Index journals. His message gives great hope. Let's read:
“I don't want to seem overwhelming to you, but I think I've demonstrated the cause of coronavirus lethality. Only at Blessed Matthew are there 2 cardiologists who turn over 150 beds to do echocardium with enormous effort and one is me. Terrible fatigue! However, of what some supposed, but could not be sure, we now have the first data. People go to resuscitation for generalized venous thromboembolism, especially pulmonary. If this were the case, resuscitations and intubations are of no use because first of all you have to dissolve, indeed prevent these thromboembolisms. If you ventilate a lung where blood does not reach, it is not needed! In fact 9 out of 10 die. Because the problem is cardiovascular, not respiratory! It is venous microthrombosis, not pneumonia that determines fatality!
And why are thrombi formed? Because inflammation, as per school text, induces thrombosis through a complex but well-known pathophysiological mechanism. Then? Contrary to what scientific literature, especially Chinese, said until mid-March, it was that anti-inflammatories should not be used. Now in Italy anti-inflammatories and antibiotics are used (as in the influences) and the number of inpatients collapses. Many deaths, even 40 years old, had a history of high fever for 10-15 days that was not treated properly. Here inflammation has destroyed everything and prepared the ground for thrombi formation. Because the main problem is not the virus, but the immune reaction that destroys the cells where the virus enters. In fact, our COVID departments have never entered patients with rheumatoid arthritis! Because they make cortisone, a powerful anti-inflammatory!
Therefore, hospitalizations in Italy are decreasing and it is becoming a disease that is treated at home. By taking care of it well at home, you avoid not only hospitalization, but also the thrombotic risk. It was not easy to understand it because the signs of microembolism have faded, even at the echocardium. But this weekend I compared the data of the first 50 patients between those who breathe badly and those who don't and the situation appeared very clear. For me you can go back to playing and reopen the business. Quarantine street. Not now. But time to publish this data. Vaccine can arrive calmly. In America and other states that follow the scientific literature that calls for NOT to use anti-inflammatories is a disaster! Worse than in Italy. And they are old and cheap drugs. " (Associated Medias - Red / Giut)
Bologna – Dai social arriva una buona notizia sul Coronavirus, forse risolutiva, che ha fondamenta scientifiche ed è diffusa da un medico autorevole del Rizzoli di Bologna, Sandro Giannini. Il suo è un curriculum molto qualificato: Professore ordinario di Ortopedia e Traumatologia e di Medicina Fisica presso l’Università di Bologna dal 1989, direttore della Clinica I presso l’Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli e del Laboratorio di Gait Analysis, partner in progetti europei e in programmi di ricerca nazionali e internazionali, autore di più di 600 presentazioni a congressi nazionali ed internazionali e più di 400 articoli in riviste Science Citation Index. Il suo messaggio dà grande speranza. Leggiamolo:
“Non vorrei sembrarvi eccessivo ma credo di aver dimostrato la causa della letalità del coronavirus. Solo al Beato Matteo ci sono 2 cardiologi che girano su 150 letti a fare ecocardio con enorme fatica e uno sono io. Fatica terribile! Però, di quello che alcuni supponevano, ma non ne riuscivano a essere sicuri, ora abbiamo i primi dati. La gente va in rianimazione per tromboembolia venosa generalizzata, soprattutto polmonare. Se così fosse, non servono a niente le rianimazioni e le intubazioni perché innanzitutto devi sciogliere, anzi prevenire queste tromboembolie. Se ventili un polmone dove il sangue non arriva, non serve! Infatti muoiono 9 su 10. Perche il problema è cardiovascolare, non respiratorio! Sono le microtrombosi venose, non la polmonite a determinare la fatalità!
E perché si formano trombi? Perche l’infiammazione come da testo scolastico, induce trombosi attraverso un meccanismo fisiopatologico complesso ma ben noto. Allora? Contrariamente a quello che la letteratura scientifica, soprattutto cinese, diceva fino a metà marzo era che non bisognava usare antinfiammatori. Ora in Italia si usano antinfiammatori e antibiotici (come nelle influenze) e il numero dei ricoverati crolla. Molti morti, anche di 40 anni, avevano una storia di febbre alta per 10-15 giorni non curata adeguatamente. Qui l’infiammazione ha distrutto tutto e preparato il terreno alla formazione dei trombi. Perche il problema principale non è il virus, ma la reazione immunitaria che distrugge le cellule dove il virus entra. Infatti nei nostri reparti COVID non sono mai entrati malati di artrite reumatoide! Perche fanno il cortisone, un potente antinfiammatorio!
Pertanto, in Italia ospedalizzazioni si riducono e sta diventando una malattia che si cura a casa. Curandola bene a casa eviti non solo ospedalizzazione, ma anche il rischio trombotico. Non era facile capirlo perché i segni della microembolia sono sfumati, anche all’ecocardio. Ma questo week end ho confrontato i dati dei primi 50 pazienti tra chi respira male e chi no e la situazione è apparsa molto chiara. Per me si può tornare a giocare e riaprire l’attività commerciali. Via quarantena. Non subito. Ma il tempo di pubblicare questi dati. Vaccino può arrivare con calma. In America e altri stati che seguono la letteratura scientifica che invita a NON usare antinfiammatori e’ un disastro! Peggio che in Italia. E sono farmaci vecchi e che costano pochi euro.”
12 Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura is one of the few professionals of mathematical models of infectious diseases in Japan, and it is well known that his ability is outstanding. However, many people don't understand mathematical models themselves (I must confess that I can't say that I understand all of the findings because I'm not a professional of mathematical models either), so his findings and comments are easily deified. Because the contents of the mathematical model are a complete black box to many people, it makes it seem like the oracle is coming out like a shrine's oracle. Much of Japan's infection control policy relies on the Nishiura theory. So there is nothing wrong with that, but one of the problems in Japan is that there is no plan B in case plan A goes bust. Dr. Nishiura is an excellent scholar. It is not God. Hence the need to have that Plan B with the possibility of making a mistake. I am greatly concerned that bureaucrats and politicians who are prone to infallibilism will mistake science for an oracle. It is only when falsifiability is assured that science can continue to be scientific.
Mathematical models are the product of deductive methods. The deductive method is complemented by the inductive or abduction method, which is the basis of scholarship and the common sense of clinical medicine. It's a common occurrence in this industry that no matter how deducibly correct it may seem, it's actually not true. Even a huge intellect like Hegel or Marx can make a mistake by deduction alone.
I'm not saying don't use the model at all. I myself write a paper using a model. However, the model is not infallible, there are assumptions that are assumptions, and the assumptions are often wrong. Making use of Gram's stain means having full knowledge of what Gram's stain cannot do and does not understand, and Gram's stain cannot be used by Gram's stain universalists. It's the same thing. Mathematical models are also utilized in the UK, which is why Brits are very sceptical of their conclusions, and there are always counter-arguments and objections. It is a sound and scientific attitude.
15 Japan's "now" is a well-controlled state of infection, which is much better than Wuhan at its worst, or Italy, Spain, France, England, or New York at the present time. The problem is that it doesn't guarantee that it will "always work".
It is Tokyo that is of concern. The increase in reports of infection is not the only problem. The problem is that more and more infected people are unable to form clusters and cannot be traced. And the number of tests is much lower than that number of positive cases; it's too little that they only tested less than 100 people (the date of testing for the positives is unknown, but it's probably around here) to capture 47 infected people.
Again, it's not necessary to figure out all the infected people. However, it is troubling that the flow of infection, movement and clusters are out of sight. Therefore, the threshold for testing must be lowered in Tokyo. The threshold for testing varies with the circumstances. That's what I explained with the Korean example. Sticking to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's "standards" will lead to a misunderstanding of the phenomenon itself. Already in the Kansai region, infected people have been found with taste and smell abnormalities, and clusters have been detected from there. I would like to make more use of the athletic sensibilities of these clinicians. I'm not sure "where" in Tokyo is the barrier to lowering the number of inspections, but that barrier needs to be removed immediately.
17 This conceptual diagram that everyone is looking at - lowering the peak of the infection and shifting it to the side. This is all a product of deduction, and I don't know if it's really true. As mentioned above, the UK estimates already suggest that this is not enough. It is possible that the damage that was shifted to the side could simply be "extra-long damage".
And this is the key point: the idea of lowering the peak should not become the notion that the peak must be lowered, or the belief that the peak must be lowered, or the self-implication that the peak is not happening. In a pattern of Japanese failure to stick to Plan A, Diamond Princess allowed no-guard disembarkation by changing "secondary infection should not occur" to "it can't have happened". We need to keep our eyes on reality so that "peak shouldn't happen" doesn't become "I don't want to see a peak. Even if it is an inconvenient truth that we don't want to see.
19 Repeatedly. It's common knowledge in this industry that deductive methods are complemented by inductive methods. Nevertheless, PCR is often false-negative and has little power to determine the status of infection. That's why "testing everything" is so wrong. However, a serum test measuring immunoglobulin IgM and IgG would provide a more accurate picture of the "status of infection in the population. This, however, is not infallible. It is difficult to use for individual cases because it misses early infection, which is why it misses early HIV infection.Whether antibody testing is useful in individual cases remains to be tested, but it is well suited for epidemiological studies on a population basis. Roughly speaking, we can confirm whether the "infection is rampant" in Tokyo right now, or whether it's just an unfounded fear.
As a precedent, serology tests in London showed that the 2009 pandemic flu was 10 times more likely than previously predicted. Antibody testing is often performed after an outbreak, but now is a good time to examine COVID-19, which is becoming a chronic pandemic.
The UK is even more aggressive. The idea is to test for antibodies at home, and if they are found to be infected, they will use it as a basis for self-isolation at home. That strategy is flawed because with the lockdown in place, a negative test does not mean "no self-sequestration". However, the idea is that we want to control the infection as a whole, and I think it is worth considering.
Inductive legal confirmation of how many infections are occurring in Tokyo is necessary and useful. I'm not a prophet, so I don't know what the outcome will be.However, no matter what the outcome, scientists need to accept it and not hesitate to change their thesis and move on to Plan B in some cases. Scientists have to be coherent in their inconsistencies.They may not be coherent in form, but they must be coherent in principles and professionalism. Good faith in the facts.
1 Most of what I'm about to write is no different from what I've said and done in the past. However, I have been asked the same question repeatedly, so I would like to reiterate it. We have received many inquiries from overseas as well, so we should have prepared the same content in English, but due to time constraints, I'm afraid I'll have to skip it. This article is designed to be read without basic knowledge of infectious diseases and jargon, but it is rather difficult to understand. Please forgive me for that.
2 The fact that the number of COVID-19 reports in Japan is very low compared to other countries is attracting attention from home and abroad. Is it true? It has been pointed out that the number of tests is so small that we may be misreading the actual number of infected people.
3 However, this point is wrong at various layers. In the first place, Japan does not aim to capture all the numbers of COVID-19. Whether it's administrative testing or insured care, the state basically has a testing strategy in mind to diagnose, hospitalize, and isolate critically ill patients who need to be hospitalized. It is natural that they "haven't figured it out" and they don't intend to. That's not a bad thing.In fact, the situation is the same in every country, large or small, and no country, whether in the United States, Europe, or Asia, is aiming to "capture the whole number.
The WHO is not asking for such a thing. But instead, Japan gives PCR to asymptomatic returnees and isolates asymptomatic test-positive people in hospital (wasn't it home for people with minor illnesses?). It has not been coherent in its principles. So, people get anxious because "we're not sure what they want to do". It's a failure in the press.
4 The difference between Korea and Japan is the "result" and not the "purpose". In South Korea, where the number of infected people had surged in one place, we had to focus on inspections in and around the area. If such a phenomenon (let's call it an overshoot) occurs in Japan, the number of inspections will increase. When the situation is different, arguing only on the basis of the number of tests without observing the situation is like trying to say, "That team made 50 sliding tackles while this team made only one," without watching a football game. In games where you don't have to slide (e.g., when you're in possession the whole time), even 0 times isn't a "mistake," and of course 50 times isn't a mistake.
There are many diseases for which the total number of patients is not known. In Japan, we do not have a "total" number of influenza cases, but only a fixed-point observation. Because that's enough information, both epidemiologically and in terms of infection control. There is no accurate data on how many cases of the common cold occur each year in Japan. It's also a mistake to say that you can tell by looking at the receipt data, because many cold patients (like me) don't see a doctor and wait until they are cured naturally. Not only in medicine, but also in economics and political science, data are mostly based on sampling to estimate population numbers, and "whole numbers" is an inefficient way of grasping the situation.
6 We have not seen the devastation in Japan as in Italy, Spain or New York City. There is no medical collapse in a critically ill patient, no use of the operating room as an ICU, no piling up of bodies on a skating rink with no place to put them. Even if the "numbers" are not known, it is a fact that the current situation in Japan (including Tokyo) is much better controlled than in other countries.
7 Even so, you may be interested in "Well, what about the actual situation? There are estimates. For example, Dr. Hiroshi Nishiura and his group estimate that the number of mild illnesses in Japan may be twice the reported number. The catch rate is 0.44, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.37-0.50.
8 Although the study was based on data from China, there is no guarantee that the Chinese COVID-19 demographic is the same as the Japanese one. Also, since the original study did not include asymptomatic patients or those with minor illnesses that did not require hospitalization, the number of infected patients estimated on that basis would inevitably be an underestimate. If you are more paranoid, it's not unreasonable to believe that "the Japanese and Chinese viruses are different because of the mutation" (although I don't think so).
9 This does not diminish the value of the paper itself. The model must always use existing parameters, and it is often impossible to prove the external validity of these parameters. If the underlying parameters are not reasonable, the predictions will not be correct. A model assumes a simplified world insofar as it is a model. A model without simplification, which is an adjectival contradiction.
To complain about these "assumptions" of the mathematical model is like complaining, for example, "You can't explain disease B," when a randomized controlled trial is conducted for disease A. This is a meaningless tirade against the honor of the industry.
A mathematical model that assumes a certain hypothesis should have internal academic validity, but it is the responsibility of the reader, as a resident of the real world, to appraise it in the real world.
Just as the RCT findings for disease A should not be used for disease B, it is natural to understand the limitations of the mathematical model and to be careful when applying it to the real world. For example, it would be wrong to read the paper and conclude that the total number of infected people in Tokyo is about 500 as of March 26.
11 People make mistakes. The models are also wrong. Being wrong is not a big deal. The problem is to notice your mistakes and make corrections. Already, a group at Imperial College London has admitted that its original estimate that the peak of the infection should be moderated was "wrong" and has revised its prediction that the ICU will soon fail if it does not fight the virus fairly aggressively.