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はてなキーワード: worstとは
Nuclear attraction: England fans flock to Chernobyl
It is the site of the world’s worst nuclear disaster but Chernobyl is proving an unlikely tourist draw for hundreds of England football supporters attending the European championships.
国産の情報は何でも隠蔽というが、海外報道なら信じる、しかし英語は読めない君らに捧げる。
英政府が福島第一原発の事故直後の３月上旬から下旬にかけ、放射線の放出が１９８６年のチェルノブイリ原発事故を上回ることを想定し、日本から到着した旅客への検査などを計画していたことが分かった。計画は結局、実施はされなかった。英紙ガーディアン電子版が２１日報じた。
元記事はこちらな。
あと同じ記事から面白そうな箇所を。ちなみに逐語訳ではなく語順（つまり論理の流れ）をできるだけ保つように訳した。受験英語みたいな杓子定規を適用して「誤訳」と言わないように。実際、受験英語流に訳しても意味は変わらないよ。
Even in this worst case scenario though, the accident was expected to cause less harm than Chernobyl, where the reactor's burning graphite core threw radioactive material high into the atmosphere, and local populations were not evacuated quickly or barred from consuming contaminated milk and other products.
訳：ただしこのような（訳注：チェルノブイリより大量の放射能放出がある）最悪の場合でも、被害はチェルノブイリより下になると予測された。チェルノブイリでは燃え上がる黒鉛が放射性物質を大気中に放出した上、付近住民の非難も牛乳その他の汚染物質の規制も行われなかったからである。
When the diesel generators were gone, the reactor operators switched to emergency battery power. The batteries were designed as one of the backups to the backups, to provide power for cooling the core for 8 hours. And they did.
Within the 8 hours, another power source had to be found and connected to the power plant. The power grid was down due to the earthquake. The diesel generators were destroyed by the tsunami. So mobile diesel generators were trucked in.
This is where things started to go seriously wrong. The external power generators could not be connected to the power plant (the plugs did not fit). So after the batteries ran out, the residual heat could not be carried away any more.
At this point the plant operators begin to follow emergency procedures that are in place for a “loss of cooling event”. It is again a step along the “Depth of Defense” lines. The power to the cooling systems should never have failed completely, but it did, so they “retreat” to the next line of defense. All of this, however shocking it seems to us, is part of the day-to-day training you go through as an operator, right through to managing a core meltdown.
It was at this stage that people started to talk about core meltdown. Because at the end of the day, if cooling cannot be restored, the core will eventually melt (after hours or days), and the last line of defense, the core catcher and third containment, would come into play.
But the goal at this stage was to manage the core while it was heating up, and ensure that the first containment (the Zircaloy tubes that contains the nuclear fuel), as well as the second containment (our pressure cooker) remain intact and operational for as long as possible, to give the engineers time to fix the cooling systems.
Because cooling the core is such a big deal, the reactor has a number of cooling systems, each in multiple versions (the reactor water cleanup system, the decay heat removal, the reactor core isolating cooling, the standby liquid cooling system, and the emergency core cooling system). Which one failed when or did not fail is not clear at this point in time.
So imagine our pressure cooker on the stove, heat on low, but on. The operators use whatever cooling system capacity they have to get rid of as much heat as possible, but the pressure starts building up. The priority now is to maintain integrity of the first containment (keep temperature of the fuel rods below 2200°C), as well as the second containment, the pressure cooker. In order to maintain integrity of the pressure cooker (the second containment), the pressure has to be released from time to time. Because the ability to do that in an emergency is so important, the reactor has 11 pressure release valves. The operators now started venting steam from time to time to control the pressure. The temperature at this stage was about 550°C.
This is when the reports about “radiation leakage” starting coming in. I believe I explained above why venting the steam is theoretically the same as releasing radiation into the environment, but why it was and is not dangerous. The radioactive nitrogen as well as the noble gases do not pose a threat to human health.
At some stage during this venting, the explosion occurred. The explosion took place outside of the third containment (our “last line of defense”), and the reactor building. Remember that the reactor building has no function in keeping the radioactivity contained. It is not entirely clear yet what has happened, but this is the likely scenario: The operators decided to vent the steam from the pressure vessel not directly into the environment, but into the space between the third containment and the reactor building (to give the radioactivity in the steam more time to subside). The problem is that at the high temperatures that the core had reached at this stage, water molecules can “disassociate” into oxygen and hydrogen – an explosive mixture. And it did explode, outside the third containment, damaging the reactor building around. It was that sort of explosion, but inside the pressure vessel (because it was badly designed and not managed properly by the operators) that lead to the explosion of Chernobyl. This was never a risk at Fukushima. The problem of hydrogen-oxygen formation is one of the biggies when you design a power plant (if you are not Soviet, that is), so the reactor is build and operated in a way it cannot happen inside the containment. It happened outside, which was not intended but a possible scenario and OK, because it did not pose a risk for the containment.
So the pressure was under control, as steam was vented. Now, if you keep boiling your pot, the problem is that the water level will keep falling and falling. The core is covered by several meters of water in order to allow for some time to pass (hours, days) before it gets exposed. Once the rods start to be exposed at the top, the exposed parts will reach the critical temperature of 2200 °C after about 45 minutes. This is when the first containment, the Zircaloy tube, would fail.
And this started to happen. The cooling could not be restored before there was some (very limited, but still) damage to the casing of some of the fuel. The nuclear material itself was still intact, but the surrounding Zircaloy shell had started melting. What happened now is that some of the byproducts of the uranium decay – radioactive Cesium and Iodine – started to mix with the steam. The big problem, uranium, was still under control, because the uranium oxide rods were good until 3000 °C. It is confirmed that a very small amount of Cesium and Iodine was measured in the steam that was released into the atmosphere.
It seems this was the “go signal” for a major plan B. The small amounts of Cesium that were measured told the operators that the first containment on one of the rods somewhere was about to give. The Plan A had been to restore one of the regular cooling systems to the core. Why that failed is unclear. One plausible explanation is that the tsunami also took away / polluted all the clean water needed for the regular cooling systems.
The water used in the cooling system is very clean, demineralized (like distilled) water. The reason to use pure water is the above mentioned activation by the neutrons from the Uranium: Pure water does not get activated much, so stays practically radioactive-free. Dirt or salt in the water will absorb the neutrons quicker, becoming more radioactive. This has no effect whatsoever on the core – it does not care what it is cooled by. But it makes life more difficult for the operators and mechanics when they have to deal with activated (i.e. slightly radioactive) water.
But Plan A had failed – cooling systems down or additional clean water unavailable – so Plan B came into effect. This is what it looks like happened:
In order to prevent a core meltdown, the operators started to use sea water to cool the core. I am not quite sure if they flooded our pressure cooker with it (the second containment), or if they flooded the third containment, immersing the pressure cooker. But that is not relevant for us.
The point is that the nuclear fuel has now been cooled down. Because the chain reaction has been stopped a long time ago, there is only very little residual heat being produced now. The large amount of cooling water that has been used is sufficient to take up that heat. Because it is a lot of water, the core does not produce sufficient heat any more to produce any significant pressure. Also, boric acid has been added to the seawater. Boric acid is “liquid control rod”. Whatever decay is still going on, the Boron will capture the neutrons and further speed up the cooling down of the core.
The plant came close to a core meltdown. Here is the worst-case scenario that was avoided: If the seawater could not have been used for treatment, the operators would have continued to vent the water steam to avoid pressure buildup. The third containment would then have been completely sealed to allow the core meltdown to happen without releasing radioactive material. After the meltdown, there would have been a waiting period for the intermediate radioactive materials to decay inside the reactor, and all radioactive particles to settle on a surface inside the containment. The cooling system would have been restored eventually, and the molten core cooled to a manageable temperature. The containment would have been cleaned up on the inside. Then a messy job of removing the molten core from the containment would have begun, packing the (now solid again) fuel bit by bit into transportation containers to be shipped to processing plants. Depending on the damage, the block of the plant would then either be repaired or dismantled.
Now, where does that leave us?
・The plant is safe now and will stay safe.
・Japan is looking at an INES Level 4 Accident: Nuclear accident with local consequences. That is bad for the company that owns the plant, but not for anyone else.
・Some radiation was released when the pressure vessel was vented. All radioactive isotopes from the activated steam have gone (decayed). A very small amount of Cesium was released, as well as Iodine. If you were sitting on top of the plants’ chimney when they were venting, you should probably give up smoking to return to your former life expectancy. The Cesium and Iodine isotopes were carried out to the sea and will never be seen again.
・There was some limited damage to the first containment. That means that some amounts of radioactive Cesium and Iodine will also be released into the cooling water, but no Uranium or other nasty stuff (the Uranium oxide does not “dissolve” in the water). There are facilities for treating the cooling water inside the third containment. The radioactive Cesium and Iodine will be removed there and eventually stored as radioactive waste in terminal storage.
・The seawater used as cooling water will be activated to some degree. Because the control rods are fully inserted, the Uranium chain reaction is not happening. That means the “main” nuclear reaction is not happening, thus not contributing to the activation. The intermediate radioactive materials (Cesium and Iodine) are also almost gone at this stage, because the Uranium decay was stopped a long time ago. This further reduces the activation. The bottom line is that there will be some low level of activation of the seawater, which will also be removed by the treatment facilities.
・The seawater will then be replaced over time with the “normal” cooling water
・The reactor core will then be dismantled and transported to a processing facility, just like during a regular fuel change.
・Fuel rods and the entire plant will be checked for potential damage. This will take about 4-5 years.
・The safety systems on all Japanese plants will be upgraded to withstand a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami (or worse)
・I believe the most significant problem will be a prolonged power shortage. About half of Japan’s nuclear reactors will probably have to be inspected, reducing the nation’s power generating capacity by 15%. This will probably be covered by running gas power plants that are usually only used for peak loads to cover some of the base load as well. That will increase your electricity bill, as well as lead to potential power shortages during peak demand, in Japan.
If you want to stay informed, please forget the usual media outlets and consult the following websites:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Battle_to_stabilise_earthquake_reactors_1203111.html
http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/12/japan-nuclear-earthquake/
http://ansnuclearcafe.org/2011/03/11/media-updates-on-nuclear-power-stations-in-japan/
結論：大丈夫。
MvK2010
I'm going to copy paste a full blog post of a research scientist at MIT here, who explains the situation at Fukushima much better than anyone else has, his message: no worries.
This post is by Dr Josef Oehmen, a research scientist at MIT, in Boston.
He is a PhD Scientist, whose father has extensive experience in Germany’s nuclear industry. I asked him to write this information to my family in Australia, who were being made sick with worry by the media reports coming from Japan. I am republishing it with his permission.
It is a few hours old, so if any information is out of date, blame me for the delay in getting it published.
This is his text in full and unedited. It is very long, so get comfy.
I am writing this text (Mar 12) to give you some peace of mind regarding some of the troubles in Japan, that is the safety of Japan’s nuclear reactors. Up front, the situation is serious, but under control. And this text is long! But you will know more about nuclear power plants after reading it than all journalists on this planet put together.
There was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity.
By “significant” I mean a level of radiation of more than what you would receive on – say – a long distance flight, or drinking a glass of beer that comes from certain areas with high levels of natural background radiation.
I have been reading every news release on the incident since the earthquake. There has not been one single (!) report that was accurate and free of errors (and part of that problem is also a weakness in the Japanese crisis communication). By “not free of errors” I do not refer to tendentious anti-nuclear journalism – that is quite normal these days. By “not free of errors” I mean blatant errors regarding physics and natural law, as well as gross misinterpretation of facts, due to an obvious lack of fundamental and basic understanding of the way nuclear reactors are build and operated. I have read a 3 page report on CNN where every single paragraph contained an error.
We will have to cover some fundamentals, before we get into what is going on.
Construction of the Fukushima nuclear power plants
The plants at Fukushima are so called Boiling Water Reactors, or BWR for short. Boiling Water Reactors are similar to a pressure cooker. The nuclear fuel heats water, the water boils and creates steam, the steam then drives turbines that create the electricity, and the steam is then cooled and condensed back to water, and the water send back to be heated by the nuclear fuel. The pressure cooker operates at about 250 °C.
The nuclear fuel is uranium oxide. Uranium oxide is a ceramic with a very high melting point of about 3000 °C. The fuel is manufactured in pellets (think little cylinders the size of Lego bricks). Those pieces are then put into a long tube made of Zircaloy with a melting point of 2200 °C, and sealed tight. The assembly is called a fuel rod. These fuel rods are then put together to form larger packages, and a number of these packages are then put into the reactor. All these packages together are referred to as “the core”.
The Zircaloy casing is the first containment. It separates the radioactive fuel from the rest of the world.
The core is then placed in the “pressure vessels”. That is the pressure cooker we talked about before. The pressure vessels is the second containment. This is one sturdy piece of a pot, designed to safely contain the core for temperatures several hundred °C. That covers the scenarios where cooling can be restored at some point.
The entire “hardware” of the nuclear reactor – the pressure vessel and all pipes, pumps, coolant (water) reserves, are then encased in the third containment. The third containment is a hermetically (air tight) sealed, very thick bubble of the strongest steel. The third containment is designed, built and tested for one single purpose: To contain, indefinitely, a complete core meltdown. For that purpose, a large and thick concrete basin is cast under the pressure vessel (the second containment), which is filled with graphite, all inside the third containment. This is the so-called “core catcher”. If the core melts and the pressure vessel bursts (and eventually melts), it will catch the molten fuel and everything else. It is built in such a way that the nuclear fuel will be spread out, so it can cool down.
This third containment is then surrounded by the reactor building. The reactor building is an outer shell that is supposed to keep the weather out, but nothing in. (this is the part that was damaged in the explosion, but more to that later).
Fundamentals of nuclear reactions
The uranium fuel generates heat by nuclear fission. Big uranium atoms are split into smaller atoms. That generates heat plus neutrons (one of the particles that forms an atom). When the neutron hits another uranium atom, that splits, generating more neutrons and so on. That is called the nuclear chain reaction.
Now, just packing a lot of fuel rods next to each other would quickly lead to overheating and after about 45 minutes to a melting of the fuel rods. It is worth mentioning at this point that the nuclear fuel in a reactor can *never* cause a nuclear explosion the type of a nuclear bomb. Building a nuclear bomb is actually quite difficult (ask Iran). In Chernobyl, the explosion was caused by excessive pressure buildup, hydrogen explosion and rupture of all containments, propelling molten core material into the environment (a “dirty bomb”). Why that did not and will not happen in Japan, further below.
In order to control the nuclear chain reaction, the reactor operators use so-called “moderator rods”. The moderator rods absorb the neutrons and kill the chain reaction instantaneously. A nuclear reactor is built in such a way, that when operating normally, you take out all the moderator rods. The coolant water then takes away the heat (and converts it into steam and electricity) at the same rate as the core produces it. And you have a lot of leeway around the standard operating point of 250°C.
The challenge is that after inserting the rods and stopping the chain reaction, the core still keeps producing heat. The uranium “stopped” the chain reaction. But a number of intermediate radioactive elements are created by the uranium during its fission process, most notably Cesium and Iodine isotopes, i.e. radioactive versions of these elements that will eventually split up into smaller atoms and not be radioactive anymore. Those elements keep decaying and producing heat. Because they are not regenerated any longer from the uranium (the uranium stopped decaying after the moderator rods were put in), they get less and less, and so the core cools down over a matter of days, until those intermediate radioactive elements are used up.
This residual heat is causing the headaches right now.
So the first “type” of radioactive material is the uranium in the fuel rods, plus the intermediate radioactive elements that the uranium splits into, also inside the fuel rod (Cesium and Iodine).
There is a second type of radioactive material created, outside the fuel rods. The big main difference up front: Those radioactive materials have a very short half-life, that means that they decay very fast and split into non-radioactive materials. By fast I mean seconds. So if these radioactive materials are released into the environment, yes, radioactivity was released, but no, it is not dangerous, at all. Why? By the time you spelled “R-A-D-I-O-N-U-C-L-I-D-E”, they will be harmless, because they will have split up into non radioactive elements. Those radioactive elements are N-16, the radioactive isotope (or version) of nitrogen (air). The others are noble gases such as Xenon. But where do they come from? When the uranium splits, it generates a neutron (see above). Most of these neutrons will hit other uranium atoms and keep the nuclear chain reaction going. But some will leave the fuel rod and hit the water molecules, or the air that is in the water. Then, a non-radioactive element can “capture” the neutron. It becomes radioactive. As described above, it will quickly (seconds) get rid again of the neutron to return to its former beautiful self.
This second “type” of radiation is very important when we talk about the radioactivity being released into the environment later on.
I will try to summarize the main facts. The earthquake that hit Japan was 7 times more powerful than the worst earthquake the nuclear power plant was built for (the Richter scale works logarithmically; the difference between the 8.2 that the plants were built for and the 8.9 that happened is 7 times, not 0.7). So the first hooray for Japanese engineering, everything held up.
When the earthquake hit with 8.9, the nuclear reactors all went into automatic shutdown. Within seconds after the earthquake started, the moderator rods had been inserted into the core and nuclear chain reaction of the uranium stopped. Now, the cooling system has to carry away the residual heat. The residual heat load is about 3% of the heat load under normal operating conditions.
The earthquake destroyed the external power supply of the nuclear reactor. That is one of the most serious accidents for a nuclear power plant, and accordingly, a “plant black out” receives a lot of attention when designing backup systems. The power is needed to keep the coolant pumps working. Since the power plant had been shut down, it cannot produce any electricity by itself any more.
Things were going well for an hour. One set of multiple sets of emergency Diesel power generators kicked in and provided the electricity that was needed. Then the Tsunami came, much bigger than people had expected when building the power plant (see above, factor 7). The tsunami took out all multiple sets of backup Diesel generators.
When designing a nuclear power plant, engineers follow a philosophy called “Defense of Depth”. That means that you first build everything to withstand the worst catastrophe you can imagine, and then design the plant in such a way that it can still handle one system failure (that you thought could never happen) after the other. A tsunami taking out all backup power in one swift strike is such a scenario. The last line of defense is putting everything into the third containment (see above), that will keep everything, whatever the mess, moderator rods in our out, core molten or not, inside the reactor.
http://anond.hatelabo.jp/20110314030613
へ続く
40万再生程度のある動画のトップコメント（評価の高いコメント）が
totoronaruto1789
(+13)
Toyota (safety)
4happy2day
(+15)
japanese is the world best race.
toyota is no.1!
の2つでギョッとなった。いきなりなんじゃこりゃ……確かに2chにリンク張られてたけど。
「こんなとこまでネトウヨでしゃばるなよ…。
いや、コメント書き込むのはいいけど、これを評価する奴らがこんなに集まってるのがなんかすげーヤだな」
（いや、冷静になって見返したら明らかに怪しい不自然なコメントなんだけど。
なんかネトウヨはアホだからこういうこともやりうるよなというヒドイ先入観があった。ごめんね。）
そんでこの動画、一体どんぐらいウヨウヨしてんだと思って
「コメントすべて見る」クリックしてだーっと眺めていったんだけど
4happy2day
(+17)
japanese are the most peacefull people.
この辺りでおや？ と思い…
TTzealousTT
As im japanese, japanese car world best.
この書き込みでやっと気づいた（ごめん）。
「あ、これが噂の…」。
ログを下ってみるとトップレートの二人も同じような感じ。
複数IPか？ 集団で工作してるのか？ とにかく評価ボタン押しまくってあんなんをトップレートに立たせたみたい。
あぶねーあぶねー、ネトウヨの先入観があったせいでこんなんでも危うく騙されかけたぞ、
と思ったら外国人もけっこう騙されていた。
(+26 のちに評価の高いコメント)
haha i'm laughing at all these overly nationalistic patriotic japanese people.
their cars are quality, it's true,
but europeans without a doubt make the sexiest cars around: bmw, ferrari, porsche,
（他にも「トヨタぶっ壊れブレーキｗ なにがno1じゃ」みたいなコメントがちらほら）
確かに、他国をdisり自国に陶酔するようなコメントがあったって、それがちゃーんと無視されてりゃ
「アホが一人いる」というどこの国でもお馴染みな光景で済むんだけど
これが何十何百と評価されてトップレートにデデーンと並んでると
「あれこの民族頭おかしいのか」になるよなあ。
トップレートに押し上げる時間と手間をかけてまで他国民が「なりきり」してるとは中々考え付かない。
今回は幸いコメントが「toyota #1！」みたいに露骨だったので、ひっかかった人も「日本の愛国者はバカだなぁ」までで済んだけど、
もうちょっと巧妙になったら「日本人はやはりレイシストだ」みたいな空気を作るのって結構簡単なんじゃないかなーと思った。
こういうのっていったいどうやって対処するのが一番なんですかねー？
……え？ どっちも真実だから別にこっちから訂正する必要はないって？
こりゃまた失礼しました……。
(+14)
Worst highest rated comments ever. Just some japanese patriots thinking they're better for some reason.
【目的】
「日本語読んでたはずなのに、いつの間にか英語読んでた！」というのが理想。
TEDから文章だけでも内容が伝わるダニエル・ピンクのプレゼンを引っ張って来たのですが、実験的にやるにしては少し内容が堅く、マテリアル選択を誤った気がしなくもありませんｗ
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/jpn/dan_pink_on_motivation.html
めちゃ長いですが、LanguageがTransformする過程を味わって頂ければと思います。
--------------------------------------------------
最初に告白させてください。20年ほど前にしたあることを私は後悔しています。あまり自慢できないようなことをしてしまいました。誰にも知られたくないと思うようなことです。それでも明かさなければならないと感じています(ざわざわ)。1980年代の後半に私は若気の至りからロースクールlaw schoolに行ったのです(笑)。
In America, 法律は専門職学位です。まずuniversityを出て、それからlaw schoolへ行きます。law schoolで私はあまり成績が芳しくありませんでした。控えめに言ってもあまり良くなく、上位90パーセント以内という成績で卒業graduateしました(笑)。どうもlaw関係の仕事はしたことがありません。やらせてallowed toもらえなかったというべきかも (笑)。
But today, betterではないことだとは思いつつ、wifeの忠告にも反しながら、このlegal skillsを再び引っ張り出すことにしました。今日はstoryはtellしません。主張caseを立証します。合理的で証拠evidenceに基づいた法廷におけるような論証で、how we run our businessesを再考してみたいと思います。
陪審員juryの皆さん, take a look at this。This is called 「ロウソクの問題」。ご存じの方もいるかもしれません。1945年にKarl Dunckerという心理学者psychologistがこの実験experimentを考案し、様々な行動scienceのexperimentで用いました。ご説明しましょう。私が実験者だとします。私はあなた方を部屋に入れてcandleと画鋲thumbtackとマッチmatchesを渡します。そしてこう言います。「テーブルtableに蝋waxがたれないようにcandleを壁wallに取り付けattachしてください。」Now what would you do?
Many peopleはthumbtackでcandleをwallに留めようとします。でもうまくいきません。あそこで手真似をしている人がいましたが、matchの火でcandleを溶かしてwallにくっつけるというideaを思いつく人もいます。いいideaですがうまくいきません。After five or 10 minutes, most peopleは解決法を見つけます。このようにすればいいのです。Keyになるのは「機能的固着functional fixedness」を乗り越えるovercomeするということです。最初、あのboxを見て、単なる画鋲の入れ物だと思うでしょうが、それは別な使い方をすることもできます。candleの台platformになるのです。これがcandle problemです。
次にSam Glucksbergというscientistが、このcandle problemを使って行ったexperimentをご紹介します。彼は現在Princeton Universityにいます。この実験でthe power of incentivesがわかります。彼は参加者participantsを集めてこう言いました。「this problemをどれくらい早く解けるsolveできるか時計で計ります。」そしてone groupにはthis sort of problemを解くのに一般にどれくらい時間がかかるのかaverage時間を知りたいのだと言います。もう1つのgroupには報酬rewardsを提示します。「上位25percentの人には5dollarsお渡しします。fastestになった人は20dollarsです。」Now this is several years ago。物価上昇inflationを考慮に入れればa few minutes of workでもらえるmoneyとしては悪くありません。十分なmotivatorになります。
このグループはどれくらい早く問題を解けたのでしょう？答えはon average, 3分半余計に時間がかかりました。Three and a half minutes longer。そんなのおかしいですよね？I'm an American。I believe in 自由市場。そんな風になるわけがありません(笑)。If you want people to perform better, 報酬を出せばいい。Bonuses, commissions, あるいは何であれ、incentiveを与えるのです。That's how business works。しかしここでは結果が違いました。Thinkingが鋭くなり、creativityが加速されるようにと、incentiveを用意したのに、結果はoppositeになりました。思考は鈍く、creativityは阻害されたのです。
この実験experimentがinterestingなのは、それが例外aberrationではないということです。この結果は何度も何度もfor nearly 40 years 再現replicateされてきたのです。この成功報酬的な動機付けmotivators―If Then式に「これをしたらこれが貰える」というやり方は、in some circumstancesでは機能します。しかし多くのtasksではうまくいかず、時には害harmにすらなります。これはsocial scienceにおける最も確固robustとした発見findingsの1つです。そして最も無視ignoreされている発見でもあります。
私はthe last couple of years, human motivationの科学に注目してきました。特に外的動機付けextrinsic motivatorsと内的動機付けintrinsic motivatorsのdynamicsについてです。大きな違いがあります。If you look at これ、scienceが解明したこととbusinessで行われていることにmismatchがあるのがわかります。business operating system、つまりビジネスの背後にある前提assumptionsや手順においては、how we motivate people、どう人を割り当てるかという問題は、もっぱらextrinsic motivators(アメとムチ)にたよっています。That's actually fine for many kinds of 20th century tasks。But for 21st century tasks, 機械的mechanisticなご褒美と罰reward-and-punishmentというapproachは機能せず、うまくいかないか、害harmになるのです。Let me show you what I mean。
Glucksbergはこれと似たanother experimentもしました。このように若干違ったslightly differentな形で問題を提示したのです。Tableにwaxがたれないようにcandleを壁にattachしてください。条件は同じ。あなたたちは平均時間を計ります。あなたたちにはincentiveを与えます。What happened this time？今回はincentivizedグループの方が断然勝ちました。Why？箱に画鋲が入っていなかったから。it's pretty easy isn't it?(「サルでもわかる」ロウソクの問題) (笑)
If-then rewards work really well for those sorts of tasks。Simpleなルールとclearな答えがある場合です。Rewardsというのはfocusを狭めmindを集中させるものです。That's why報酬が機能する場合が多い。だからこのような狭い視野で目の前にあるゴールをまっすぐ見ていればよい場合にはthey work really well。But for the real candle problem, そのような見方をしているわけにはいきません。The solutionが目の前に転がってはいないからです。周りを見回す必要があります。Rewardはfocusを狭め、私たちの可能性possibilityを限定restrictしてしまうのです。
Let me tell you why this is so important。In western Europe, in many parts of Asia, in North America, in Australia, white collarの仕事にはthis kind of workは少なく、このような種類の仕事が増えています。That routine, rule-based, left brain work, certain kinds of accounting, certain kinds of financial analysis, certain kinds of computer programingは 簡単にアウトソースできます。簡単にautomateできます。Softwareのほうが早くできます。世界中にLow-cost providersがいます。だから重要になるのはthe more right-brained creative, conceptual kinds of abilitiesです。
Your own workを考えてみてください。Youが直面faceしている問題は、あるいはweがここで議論しているようなproblemsは、こちらのkindでしょうか？A clear set of rules, and a single solutionがあるような？そうではないでしょう。ルールはあいまいで、答えはそもそも存在するとしての話ですが、驚くようなsurprisingものであり、けっして自明obviousではありません。Everybody in this room is dealing with their own version of the candle problem。And for candle problems of any kind, in any field, if-then rewardsは機能しないのです。企業の多くはそうしていますが。
Now, これにはcrazyになりそうです。どういうことかというと、これはfeelingではありません。私は法律家lawyerです。Feelingsなんて信じません。This is not a 哲学philosophy。I'm an American。Philosophyなんて信じません(笑)。This is a fact。私が住んでいるWashington D.C.でよく使われる言い方をするとtrue factです(笑)。(拍手)Let me give you an example of what I mean。Evidenceの品を提示します。Iはstoryをtellしているのではありません。I'm making a 立証。
Ladies and gentlemen of the 陪審員, 証拠を提示します: Dan Ariely, one of the great economists of our time, Heは3人の仲間とともにsome MIT studentsを対象に実験studyを行いました。These MIT studentsにたくさんのgamesを与えます。Creativity, and 運動能力motor skills, and concentrationが要求されるようなゲームです。そして成績に対するthree levels of rewardsを用意しました。Small reward, medium reward, large reward。Okay？非常にいい成績なら全額、いい成績なら半分の報酬がもらえます。What happened？「As long as the task involved only mechanical skill、bonusesは期待通りに機能し、報酬が大きいほどパフォーマンスが良くなった。 しかし、cognitive skillが多少とも要求されるタスクになると、larger rewardはより低い成績をもたらした。」
Then they said,「cultural biasがあるのかもしれない。Indiaのマドゥライで試してみよう。」In Madurai, Standard of livingが低いので、North Americaではたいしたことのないrewardが 大きな意味を持ちます。実験の条件はSameです。A bunch of games, three levels of rewards. What happens? medium level of rewardsを提示された人たちは small rewardsの人たちと成績が変わりませんでした。But this time, people offered the highest rewards, they did the worst of all。「In eight of the nine tasks we examined across 3回の実験, よりhigherインセンティブがworse成績という結果となった。」
これはおなじみの感覚的なsocialistの陰謀conspiracyなのでしょうか？No. Theyはeconomists from MIT, from Carnegie Mellon, from the University of Chicagoです。And do you know who sponsored this research? FRBです。これはまさにAmerican experienceなのです。
Let's go across the pond to the London School of Economics。11人のNobel 受賞者 in economicsを輩出しています。Greatな経済の頭脳がここで学んでいます。George Soros, and Friedrich Hayek, and Mick Jagger(笑)。Last month, just last month, economists at LSE looked at 51 studies of 成果主義 plans, inside of companies。彼らの結論は「We find that 金銭的なインセンティブ can result in a negative impact on 全体的なパフォーマンス.」ということでした。
There is a 食い違い between what 科学 knows and what ビジネス does. And what worries me, as この潰れた経済の瓦礫の中に立って, is that あまりに多くの組織 are making their decisions, their policies about 人や才能, based on assumptions that are 時代遅れ, 検証されていない, and rooted more in 神話 than in 科学. this 経済の窮地からget out ofと思うなら 21st century的な答えのないtasksで high performanceを出そうと思うのなら、wrong thingsを これ以上続けるのはやめるべきです. To 誘惑 people with a sweeter carrot, or 脅す them with a 鋭いムチ. まったく新しいアプローチが必要なのです.
And the いいニュース about all of this is that scientistsが新しいapproachを示してくれているということです. It's an approach built much more around 内的な motivation. Around the desire to do things because they matter, because we 好き it, because they're 面白い, because they are 何か重要なことの一部. And to my mind, that new operating system for our businesses revolves around three elements: 自主性、成長、目的. 自主性, the 欲求 to 方向 our own lives. 成長, the desire to get better and better at 何か大切なこと. 目的, the 切望 to do what we do in the service of 大きな何か than ourselves. これらがour businessesのentirely new operating systemの要素なのです.
I want to talk today only about 自主性. In the 20th 世紀, we came up with this idea of マネジメント. Management did not 自然に生じた. Management is like -- it's not a 木. It's a テレビ. Okay? Somebody 発明した it. And it doesn't mean it's going to work 永久に. Management is great. 服従を望むなら, Traditional notions of management are ふさわしい. しかし参加を望むなら, 自主性 works better.
Let me give you some 例 of some kind of 過激なnotions of 自主性. What this means -- あまり多くはありませんが 、非常に面白いことが起きています. Because what it means is paying people 適切に and 公正に, 間違いなく. Getting お金の問題 off the table. And then giving people 大きな自主性. Let me give you 具体的な例.
How many of you ご存じ of the 会社 Atlassian? 半分もいない感じですね(笑). Atlassian is an オーストラリアのソフトウェア会社. And they do すごくクールなこと. A few times a year they tell their エンジニア, "これから24時間何をやってもいい, as long as it's not part of your regular job. Work on 好きなことを何でも" So that エンジニア use this time to come up with a cool 継ぎ接ぎ for code, come up with an エレガントなハック. Then they 何を作ったのか見せる to their teammates, to the rest of the company, in 雑然とした全員参加の会合 at the end of the day. And then, オーストラリアですから, everybody has a ビール.
They call them 「FedExの日」. Why? Because you 何かを一晩で送り届けなければならない. It's 素敵. It's not bad. It's a huge 商標権 侵害. But it's pretty clever. (Laughter) That one day of 集中的な自主活動 has produced 多数の software 修正 that might never have existed.
And it's worked so well that Atlassian has taken it to 次のレベル with 20 Percent Time. Googleがやっていることで有名ですね.Where エンジニア can work, spend 20 percent of their time working on anything they want. They have 自主性 over their time, their task, their team, their 技術. Okay? Radical amounts of 自主性, And at Google, as many of you know, 新製品の半分近く in a typical year are 生まれています during that 20 Percent Time. Things like Gmail, Orkut, Google News.
Let me give you an even more 過激な example of it. Something called 「完全結果志向の職場環境」. The ROWE(Results Only Work Environment). Created by two American コンサルタント, in place at about a dozen companies around 北アメリカ. In a ROWE people don't have スケジュール. They show up 好きなときに. They don't have to be in the office 特定の時間に, or any time. They just have to 仕事を成し遂げる. How they do it, when they do it, where they do it, is totally up to them. ミーティング in these kinds of environments are オプショナル.
What happens? ほとんどの場合, productivity goes up, 雇用期間 goes up, 社員満足度 goes up, 離職率 goes down. 自主性Autonomy, 成長mastery and 目的purpose, These are the 構成要素 of a new way of doing things. Now some of you might look at this and say, "Hmm, 結構だけど、it's 夢物語." And I say, "Nope. I have 証拠."
The mid 1990s, Microsoft started an 百科事典encyclopedia called Encarta. They had deployed all the right インセンティブ. All the right incentives. They paid プロ to write and edit 何千という記事. たっぷり報酬をもらっている managers oversaw the whole thing to make sure it came in on budget and on time. 何年か後に another encyclopedia got started. 別なモデル, right? Do it for 楽しみ. No one gets paid a cent, or a Euro or a Yen. Do it because you 好き to do it.
ほんの10年前に, if you had gone to an 経済学者, anywhere, And said, "Hey, I've got 百科事典を作る2つのモデル. 対決したら, who would win?" 10 years ago you could not have found a single まともな経済学者 anywhere on planet Earth, who would have predicted the Wikipediaのモデル.
This is the 大きな battle between these two approaches. This is モチベーションにおけるアリ vs フレージャー戦. Right? This is 伝説のマニラ決戦. Alright? 内的な motivators versus 外的な motivators. Autonomy, mastery and purpose, versus アメとムチcarrot and sticks. And who wins? Intrinsic motivation, autonomy, mastery and purposeが ノックアウト勝利します.まとめましょう.
There is a 食い違い between what science knows and what business does. And here is what science knows. One: Those 20th century rewards, those motivators we think are a 当然 part of business, do work, but only in a surprisingly narrow band of circumstances. Two: Those if-then rewards often 損なう creativity. Three: The 秘訣 to high performance isn't rewards and punishments, but that 見えない intrinsic drive. The drive to do things 自分自身のため. The drive to do things それが重要なことだから.
And here's the best part. Here's the best part. We already know this. The science confirms what we know in our hearts. So, if we repair this mismatch between what science knows and what business does, If we bring our motivation, notions of motivation into the 21st century, if we get past this lazy, dangerous, ideology of carrots and sticks, we can strengthen our businesses, we can solve a lot of those candle problems, and maybe, maybe, maybe we can change the world. I rest my 立証。
選挙ってのは、最悪と極悪を比べて、よりマシな方を選ぶというだけのモノなんだなあ。
"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried." ---Winston Churchill.
友達がいない。誰もかまってくれないときは、孤独を強く感じて鬱屈とした日々を過ごす。もっと人と関わりたい、休日に一緒に遊べる仲間がいない、なんでいつも一人なんだ畜生、と身勝手な怒りの感情を溜め込んでしまう。
ところが、たまたま何かのきっかけで誰かと知り合いになり、何度か遊びに出かけることがある。最初のころは楽しいことも多い。しかしそのうち、実にいろんな人に鬱陶しさを感じてしまう。A君、B君、Cさん、・・・たぶん常人よりずっとずっと「この人は嫌いだ」と思う確率が高い。ある人の度重なる否定的な発言に苛立ち、また別の、延々と自分の話だけして愚痴ばかり続ける人からの電話に疲れ果て、どうしてこうもさまざまな人について、悪い部分ばかりが見えてしまうのだろう。しかもこちらも傷つきやすいときたもんだ。感じ方は、自分が正しいのではないかと傲慢にも思ってしまう（客観的にはそうではないケースだって多々あるだろう）。
しかし、彼らは仕事やプライベートで社交的にふるまい友人も多く、とくに人から批判されるところを見たことはない。その事実を彼らのふるまい方の正否のサインとするなら、社会的に問題がある人物では断じてない。そうか、おかしいのは自分じゃないか。誰も彼らに文句をつけていないではないか。
こうしていざ人間との接触が増えると、あれこれの厭な面に疲れて、鬱陶しさから人と関わることを避けようとする自分がいる。ああ、孤独で、会社で誰一人友人ができず、休日も一人でいることは、worstではないという意味で自ら選んだ消極的な選択肢だったのではないのか？ 一人でいて孤独を感じるときには、淋しいから誰かと食事したいなどと思うが、いざ人と接すると無性に腹が立ったり精神を（勝手に）刺激されすぎて離れたくなる。いつもその繰り返しだ。あまり人生の幸福度が高くないらしい。もっと人間を好きになりたかった。もっとたやすく人を肯定できる脳をもちたい。
中高生ならこんな下手くそで不健全な対人関係でも許されようが、三十路を過ぎた大人の男が何と幼稚な段階でつまづいているんだろう。情けない。ずっと似たような過去をたどってきた人間として一つわかるのは、おそらく今後数十年もたいして対人関係のスペックは上昇しないだろうという暗い予感である。
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/579dffea-fc44-11dd-aed8-000077b07658.html
Japan’s politicians lose their way at a bad time
The DPJ talks about replacing bureaucrats with politicians in key ministerial positions
but says virtually nothing about what policies these newly empowered politicians would
implement. Ichiro Ozawa, its leader, is a survivor from the old school of Japanese
politics too busy micromanaging the election - he is his own Karl Rove - and too
unwilling to share decision-making with others in the party, especially those whom he
suspects are not entirely loyal to him, to be spending time preparing a transition.
民主党は省庁に議員を送り込むと言っているが、その議員がどんな政策を実施するのか
実質的に何も言っていない。小沢一郎は保守的な日本の政治家であり選挙対策ばかりで
忙しい。政策決定を党の中の誰とも共有するつもりがなく、とりわけ小沢に完全に忠誠を
The other day I asked an MP who is one of the party’s economic policy specialists what
fiscal policies the DPJ would employ to deal with what is shaping up to be Japan’s worst
postwar recession. His answer: “We haven’t thought much about that yet.”
先日、民主党の経済政策の専門家の一人である衆院議員に戦後最悪の不況に対する民主党の政策に
ついて尋ねたら、彼は「まだあまり考えてない」と答えた。
There will be more destruction, perhaps including the demise of both the LDP and DPJ
and the formation of new parties. Whatever the political goings-on, there is no
optimistic short-term scenario for Japan.
おそらく自民党と民主党の両方の崩壊や新党の形成を含む崩壊がやってくるだろう。
どんな政治的事件だとしても、日本にとって短期的に楽観できるシナリオはない。
At some point the public will grasp the seriousness of the economic troubles and demand
change. But that crisis mentality does not exist today. Therefore things will not only
get worse before they get better. They will get worse before the political system comes
up with policies that even stand a chance of making them better.
ある時点で大衆は経済問題と需要変化の深刻さを理解するだろう。しかし現時点では
そのような危機は心の中には存在しない。したがって政治システムが有望な政策を
思いつく前に状況は悪化するだろう。
http://anond.hatelabo.jp/20080721222220
まあ、どのくらいの数の渋谷系オタがそういう彼女をゲットできるかは別にして、
「腐女子ではまったくないんだが、しかし自分の音楽の趣味を肯定的に黙認してくれて、その上で全く知らない渋谷系の世界とはなんなのか、ちょっとだけ好奇心持ってる」
ような、渋谷系オタの都合のいい妄想の中に出てきそうな彼女に、渋谷系のことを紹介するために聞かせるべき10枚を選んでみたいのだけれど。
（要は「脱オタクファッションガイド」の正反対版だな。彼女に音楽を布教するのではなく相互のコミュニケーションの入口として）
あくまで「入口」なので、時間的に過大な負担を伴うコンピレーション、トリビュートのアルバムは避けたい。
できればLP1枚、長くても2枚にとどめたい。
あと、いくら渋谷系的に基礎といっても古びを感じすぎるものは避けたい。
渋谷系好きが『ナゴム系』は外せないと言っても、それはちょっとさすがになあ、と思う。
そういう感じ。
彼女の設定は
渋谷系知識はいわゆる「CM系」的なものを除けば、オザケン程度は聞いている
サブカル度も低いが、頭はけっこう良い
という条件で。
まあ、いきなりここかよとも思うけれど、「渋谷系以前」を濃縮しきっていて、「渋谷系以後」を決定づけたという点では外せないんだよなあ。
長さもちょうど良いし。
ただ、ここでオタトーク全開にしてしまうと、彼女との関係が崩れるかも。
この一聴するとポップな作品について、どれだけさらりと、嫌味にならず濃すぎず、それでいて必要最小限の腹黒さを彼女に伝えられるかということは、オタ側の「真のコミュニケーション能力」の試験としてはいいタスクだろうと思う。
アレって典型的な「オタクが考える一般人に受け入れられそうな渋谷系（そうオタクが思い込んでいるだけ。実際は全然受け入れられない）」そのもの
という意見には半分賛成・半分反対なのだけれど、それを彼女にぶつけて確かめてみるには一番よさそうな素材なんじゃないのかな。「渋谷系オタとしてはこれは“ポップス”としていいと思うんだけど、率直に言ってどう？」って。
ある種の渋谷系オタが持ってるフランスへの憧憬と、モーマス監修のオタ的な考証へのこだわりを彼女に紹介するという意味ではいいなと思うのと、それに加えていかにもな
の二人をはじめとして、オタ好きのするモノクロ写真をジャケにちりばめているのが、紹介してみたい理由。
たぶんこれを聞いた彼女は「bonobosだよね」と言ってくれるかもしれないが、そこが狙いといえば狙い。
この系譜の作品がその後続いていないこと、これが一部では大人気になったこと、アメリカならipodのCM曲になって、それが日本に輸入されてもおかしくはなさそうなのに、日本国内でこういうのがつくられないこと、なんかを非オタ彼女と話してみたいかな、という妄想的願望。
「やっぱり渋谷系は小山田を避けて通れないよね」という話になったときに、そこで選ぶのはファンタズマでもいいのだけれど、そこでこっちを選んだのは、この作品にかける小山田の思いが好きだから。
断腸の思いで削りに削ってそれでも72分、っていう尺が、どうしても俺の心をつかんでしまうのは、その「捨てる」ということへの諦めきれなさがいかにもオタ的だなあと思えてしまうから。
69/96の長さを俺自身は冗長とは思わないし、もう削れないだろうとは思うけれど、一方でこれが小沢だったらきっちりシングルにしてしまうだろうとも思う。なのに、各所に頭下げて迷惑かけて69/96を作ってしまう、というあたり、どうしても「自分の物語を形作ってきたものが捨てられないオタク」としては、たとえ小山田がそういうキャラでなかったとしても、親近感を禁じ得ない。作品自体の高評価と合わせて、そんなことを彼女に話してみたい。
今の若年層でTOKYO NO.1 SOUL SETを聴いたことのある人はそんなにいないと思うのだけれど、だから紹介してみたい。
Jラップよりも前の段階で、ビッケの哲学とかサンプリング技法とかはこの作品で頂点に達していたとも言えて、こういうクオリティの作品がクラブでこの時代にかかっていたんだよ、というのは、別に俺自身がなんらそこに貢献してなくとも、なんとなく1995年シーン好きとしては不思議に誇らしいし、日産マーチのCMでナレーションしてるビッケしか知らない彼女には聞かせてあげたいなと思う。
ヘッド博士の「音」あるいは「サンプリング」をオタとして教えたい、というお節介焼きから見せる、ということではなくて。
「終わらない夏休み」的な感覚が渋谷系オタには共通してあるのかなということを感じていて、だからこそ「パーフリ」は小山田小沢以外ではあり得なかったとも思う。「解りあえやしないって解りあう」というオタの感覚が今日さらに強まっているとするなら、その「オタク気分」の源はフリッパーズにあったんじゃないか、という、そんな理屈はかけらも口にせずに、単純に楽しんでもらえるかどうかを見てみたい。
これは地雷だよなあ。地雷が火を噴くか否か、そこのスリルを味わってみたいなあ。
こういう雑メロ風味の内容をこういうかたちで小山田がプロデュースして、それが非オタに受け入れられるか、気持ち悪さを誘発するか、というのを見てみたい。
9枚まではあっさり決まったんだけど10枚目は空白でもいいかな、などと思いつつ、便宜的に中原を選んだ。
小沢から始まって中原で終わるのもそれなりに収まりはいいだろうし、渋谷系時代の先駆けとなった作品でもあるし、紹介する価値はあるのだろうけど、もっと他にいい作品がありそうな気もする。というわけで、俺のこういう意図にそって、もっといい10本目はこんなのどうよ、というのがあったら教えてください。
「駄目だこの増田は。俺がちゃんとしたリストを作ってやる」というのは大歓迎。スチャダラパーの「サマージャム'95」が入ってないのはおかしい！とかね。
ああ疲れた。サニーデイやラブタン関連great3とかも入れたかったんだが無理だった。
所詮この程度ですかそうですか。
パーソン・オブ・ザ・イヤーを掲載することでも知られる雑誌TIMEが今年の注目・優秀ウェブサービスを特集する一方でワーストサイトも掲載した。
"5 Worst Websites : Sites to Avoid SecondLife.com"
http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1638344_1638341_1633628,00.html
他のサービスでも操作に慣れというものが必要だがセカンドライフほど酷くはないだろう。
そしてセカンドライフ内には至るところに粗暴で困った参加者が居て所かまわず落書きを
描き散らし、不慣れなユーザーを掴んでは彼方にまで放り投げたりしている。
（略)
また会議やセミナー会場としての企業利用がセカンドライフの公的評価を高めているようだが
さすがの電通もアメリカの雑誌にまでは手を回していなかったようだ。
