■出たなMOF増田！

http://anond.hatelabo.jp/20080722130207

・・・いや、こんな時間だから官僚じゃないよね。

財務省発表に踊らされる財政再建マンセーなニート増田乙。

しかし日本にもインフレが起こる火種があることは確かです。

どこに？原材料・食料品価格の上昇は景気下ぶれ圧力ですよね、明らかに。需要超過によるインフレの芽なんてどこにもありません。

国の財政を考えずに、人気取りだけで消費税を廃止したりすると日本の借金はさらに膨らみ、ハイパーインフレしか残された方法がなくなるかもしれません。

経済系ブログ論壇のあちこちで既に指摘されてますが、総債務（祖債務？）を純債務と比べるのは明らかな大衆煽動。あんまり簡単にあおられてはいけません。

NY連銀の中の人とコロンビア大学のエコノミストのセンセイが書いた論文要約を貼っときますね。

元はここ　http://www.nber.org/papers/w10988

We analyze fiscal policy and fiscal sustainability in Japan using a variant of the methodology developed in Blanchard (1990). We find that Japan can achieve fiscal sustainability over a 100-year horizon with relatively small changes in the tax-to-GDP ratio. Our analysis differs from more pessimistic analyses in several dimensions. First, since Japanese net debt is only half that of gross debt, we demonstrate that the current debt burden is much lower than is typically reported. This means that monetization of the debt will have little impact on Japan's fiscal sustainability because Japan's problem is the level of future liabilities not current ones. Second, we argue that one obtains very different projections of social security burdens based on the standard assumption that Japan's population is on a trend towards extinction rather than transitioning to a new lower level. Third, we demonstrate that some modest cost containment of the growth rate of real per capita benefits, such as cutting expenditures for shrinking demographic categories, can dramatically lower the necessary tax burden. In sum, no scenario involves Japanese taxes rising above those in Europe today and many result in tax-to-GDP ratios comparable to those in the United States.

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