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はてなキーワード: expectationsとは
Will the Bank of Japan raise rates above zero?
No. 2024 will be the year the Japanese central bank finally ditches yield curve control and negative interest rates. Contrary to market expectations of several further increases, however, rates will end the year no higher than zero.
With mediocre wage growth, a stronger yen in prospect as US rates peak and reasons to prefer a steeper yield curve, the BoJ is unlikely to set a positive rate — although as with any central bank forecast, much depends on the incoming data. Robin Harding
ChatGPTさんも、そんな考えは時代遅れやって言うてはるぞ。
Sure, I'd be happy to discuss that with you! The question of who should pay on a first date is a common one and there's no one-size-fits-all answer. It really depends on the situation and the preferences of the people involved.
Traditionally, it was often expected that the man would pay for the first date. However, in modern times, many people prefer to split the bill or take turns paying for dates. Some people may feel strongly about paying on a first date as a way to show their interest or to demonstrate their ability to provide for their partner, while others may feel that splitting the bill or taking turns paying is more fair and equitable.
Ultimately, the decision of who should pay on a first date should be based on what both people are comfortable with. It's a good idea to discuss it ahead of time so that there are no surprises or awkward moments at the end of the date. Communication is key in any relationship, so it's important to be open and honest about your preferences and expectations.
４月１３日の週から、今週まで東京都のデータ入れて、matplotlibで３D化してみた。
これだと減ってる様子は見て取れないけど、東洋経済のサイトのグラフだと実行再生算数１切ってるんだよね。
下記のコードは好きに使ってくださいな。
---
from mpl_toolkits.mplot3d import Axes3D
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
x = np.array([-1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7]) # from Mon to Sun
y = np.array([1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17]) # From Apr13 to onward
X, Y = np.meshgrid(x, y)
# Number Data of New Infection Patient
Z = np.array([[ 98,161,127,150,204,185,107], # Apr13
[100,123,125,134,166,107,76], # Apr20
[40,112, 47, 46, 164,159, 90], # Apr27
[87, 57, 37, 23, 39, 36, 22], # May4
[15, 28, 10, 30, 9, 14, 5], # May11
[ 10, 5, 5, 11, 3, 2, 14], # May18
[ 8, 10, 11, 15, 22, 14, 5], # May25
[ 13, 34, 12, 28, 20, 26, 14], # Jul1
[ 13, 12, 18, 22, 25, 24, 47], # Jul8
[ 48, 27, 16, 41, 35, 39, 35], # Jul15
[ 29, 31, 55, 48, 54, 57, 60], # Jul22
[ 58, 54, 67,107,124,130,111], # Jul29
[102,106, 75,224,243,206,206], # Jul6
[119,143,165,286,293,290,188], # Jul13
[168,237,238,366,260,295,239], # Jul20
[131,266,250,367,463,472,292], # Jul27
[282,276,260,377,473,482,302]]) # Aug3 : encliding expectations = prev week number + 10
fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))
ax.set_xlabel('Day', fontsize=16)
ax.set_ylabel('Week', fontsize=16)
ax.get_proj = lambda: np.dot(Axes3D.get_proj(ax), np.diag([0.8, 1.2, 1, 1]))
ax.plot_wireframe(X, Y, Z)
ax.plot_surface(X, Y, Z, cmap=plt.cm.jet, rstride=1, cstride=1, linewidth=0)
plt.show()
I. INTRODUCTION
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All the documents that relate to the App are hereby expressly incorporated herein by reference.
Please read this Agreement carefully before you download, install or use the App.
It is important that you read and understand this Agreement as by downloading, installing or using the App you indicate that you have read, understood, agreed and accepted the Agreement which takes effect on the date on which you download, install or use the App. By using the App you agree to abide by this Agreement.
If you do not agree with (do not accept) this Agreement, or if you do not agree at least with one of the provisions of this Agreement, you are not authorized to, and you may not access, download, install or use the App and you must ly discontinue downloading, installing the App and remove (delete) the App from any mobile device in your possession or under your control.
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Woho. Anglers are allowed two salmon per day with a minimum size for Chinook at 24 inches or larger. Salmon seasons from May 2016 to April 30, 2017 are currently being developed.
Last weekend Prowler Charters here in Bandon took clients out bottomfishing. Fishing for rockfish was excellent, but very few ling cod were taken. Strong ocean currents made for a fast drift which makes the conditions tough. Wayne Butler, the captain of the Miss Chief, told me that the depth at the Bandon bar was much deeper than last year. This winter's large rain event naturally flushed out the entrance, which makes bar crossings much safer. Anglers surf fishing out at Bullards Beach State Park reported good pinkfin surf perch action last week. Live sand shrimp or Berkley Gulp sand worms in camo colors have been working best. Perch fishing has been good up on the beaches in Coos Bay. Anglers are also catching pinkfin and striped perch along the Coos Bay south jetty. Boaters are catching rockfish inside the bay near the No. 7 buoy and the train trestle bridge
But while pundits have occasionally contorted themselves into logical pretzels to explain away Ford’s casual racism and misogyny — “He was just drunk!” “He always fights for the little guy!” — none has ever been able to explain away his deliberate and calculated anti-LGBT statements and actions.
Ford never hid anti-LGBT animus. From his earliest days on council, when he opposed funding small grants to diversity and AIDS-prevention campaigns, he made it explicit that his opposition stemmed from disgust with LGBT people, not from a desire to protect the public purse.Superman grany przez Cavilla to ten sam poziom, co w Człowieku ze Stali - moim zdaniem Cavill bardzo się stara, żeby jak najciekawiej zagrać Supermana, ale to i tak jedna z najnudniejszych postaci w całym komiksowym uniwersum, więc niektóre wysiłki pozostają niezauważone. Moim zdaniem to wina postaci i fani muszą się do tego przyzwyczaić.
Trzecią postacią, która ma szanse zaprezentować nam się trochę dłużej na ekranie jest oczywiście “ten zły”, czyli Lex Luthor, który grany przez Eisenberga kojarzył się raczej z o wiele bardziej szalonym Zuckerbergiem z The Social Network, niż komiksowym czarnym charakterem. Być może się czepiam, ale gdyby Luthor się w tym filmie nie przedstawił, nie miałbym pojęcia kim właściwie jest ten rudy gość, który z jakiegoś powodu postanowił być bardzo złośliwy.
he astonishments of the quasi-Biblical clashes and catastrophes in the director Zack Snyder’s “Man of Steel” left me impatient to see his “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.” The earlier film conveyed an awed and even terrified sense of the colossal, a delight in the cinematic ability to realize wrenching destruction and, at the same time, to shiver at the very imagination of it. Snyder turned the superhero universe around on itself, constructing backstories and out-there stories of an apocalyptic force; it was silly but potent, shallow but thrilling. Perhaps Snyder’s new film is the victim of great (or any) expectations, but “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” remains literally Earth-bound, and this fair planet is where Snyder bumps up against the limits of his vision.
Where “Man of Steel” opens big, with an intergalactic origin story that has the heightened tone of pseudo-scripture, the first big set piece in “Batman v Superman” is a catastrophe from home, a virtual replay of the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center, with Bruce Wayne (Ben Affleck) looking on with horror and hatred as the tower of Wayne Industries collapses (vertically) into a blinding gust of light-gray powder—as a result of the battle waged by Superman (Henry Cavill) against the Kryptonian usurper General Zod.
But while pundits have occasionally contorted themselves into logical pretzels to explain away Ford’s casual racism and misogyny — “He was just drunk!” “He always fights for the little guy!” — none has ever been able to explain away his deliberate and calculated anti-LGBT statements and actions.
Ford never hid anti-LGBT animus. From his earliest days on council, when he opposed funding small grants to diversity and AIDS-prevention campaigns, he made it explicit that his opposition stemmed from disgust with LGBT people, not from a desire to protect the public purse.Superman grany przez Cavilla to ten sam poziom, co w Człowieku ze Stali - moim zdaniem Cavill bardzo się stara, żeby jak najciekawiej zagrać Supermana, ale to i tak jedna z najnudniejszych postaci w całym komiksowym uniwersum, więc niektóre wysiłki pozostają niezauważone. Moim zdaniem to wina postaci i fani muszą się do tego przyzwyczaić.
Trzecią postacią, która ma szanse zaprezentować nam się trochę dłużej na ekranie jest oczywiście “ten zły”, czyli Lex Luthor, który grany przez Eisenberga kojarzył się raczej z o wiele bardziej szalonym Zuckerbergiem z The Social Network, niż komiksowym czarnym charakterem. Być może się czepiam, ale gdyby Luthor się w tym filmie nie przedstawił, nie miałbym pojęcia kim właściwie jest ten rudy gość, który z jakiegoś powodu postanowił być bardzo złośliwy.
he astonishments of the quasi-Biblical clashes and catastrophes in the director Zack Snyder’s “Man of Steel” left me impatient to see his “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice.” The earlier film conveyed an awed and even terrified sense of the colossal, a delight in the cinematic ability to realize wrenching destruction and, at the same time, to shiver at the very imagination of it. Snyder turned the superhero universe around on itself, constructing backstories and out-there stories of an apocalyptic force; it was silly but potent, shallow but thrilling. Perhaps Snyder’s new film is the victim of great (or any) expectations, but “Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice” remains literally Earth-bound, and this fair planet is where Snyder bumps up against the limits of his vision.
Where “Man of Steel” opens big, with an intergalactic origin story that has the heightened tone of pseudo-scripture, the first big set piece in “Batman v Superman” is a catastrophe from home, a virtual replay of the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center, with Bruce Wayne (Ben Affleck) looking on with horror and hatred as the tower of Wayne Industries collapses (vertically) into a blinding gust of light-gray powder—as a result of the battle waged by Superman (Henry Cavill) against the Kryptonian usurper General Zod.
That start gives off a strange whiff of competition with—or emulation of—Marvel’s irrepressibly successful “Avengers” films, the first of which, in particular, is an unabashed post-9/11 allegory. (The connection is surprisingly direct. One of the climactic moments of “Batman v Superman”—a leap from the ground that vaults through the atmosphere and into outer space—is a virtual duplication, both dramatically and visually, of a similar climactic feat in “The Avengers.”) In Snyder’s new film, Superman appears, from the start, as a hopeless naïf, a battler for good who doesn’t admit to his own capacity to do incidental evil, a blinkered warrior who deploys his nearly infinite powers according to his unquestioned moral intuition rather than to the prudent calculation of results.
O Wonder Woman, która zgodnie z obietnicami zadebiutowała w tym filmie mogę w sumie napisać tylko tyle, że… do tej roli wybrano świetną aktorkę. Przynajmniej z wyglądu, bo po tych strzępkach dialogów, które pojawiają sie na ekranie z jej udziałem ciężko się zorientować kim właściwie jest ta pani, która w pewnym momencie pojawia się z tarczą i mieczem u boku Supermana i Batmana.
http://www.chatakatka.sk/mega-hqtvdownload-batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-full-movie-hdq/
http://www.chatakatka.sk/mega-hqtvdownload-batman-v-superman-dawn-of-justice-full-movie-hdq/
1. ビジネスを立ち上げる日を設定する。BeckyとSheilaの場合は、5月に会社をその年の9月に設立すると決めた。最初は「どんなにか大変だろう」と思ったのだが、それほどでもないことに気づいたが、日付にはこだわった。信念を持って計画を達成しよう。
2. 自分たちに完璧を求めないこと。努力するのはよいことだけど、顧客のための自分のドアを開く方法を見つけた方がよい。
3. テスト期間中に収益をあげよう。ビジネスを立ち上げ、ビジネスを始めるときには、すでに顧客からのフィードバック、何を売るのか、何に優れているのか、何が収益が高いのか、自分が何がしたいのか、ということが土台になっているように。
4. 狭いターゲットに絞ろう。これは非常に難しいことだ。なぜなら、人間の傾向として、巨大な市場の後についていって成長するほうが簡単だと、考えがちだからだ。小さな市場にサービスを提供するという信念は、最もよいチャンスに注力することや、とてもよい製品やソリューションを作るときに役立つはずだ。そうすれば顧客はクチコミによってそれを広め売上がついてくるだろう。
5. 顧客の課題を解決するために自分たちのツールを売り込むことよりも、顧客の課題自体に集中しよう。この心構えは、ビジネスプランを練ったり、製品を顧客のニーズに合わせることに役立つはずだ。これは、異なる製品やサービスがビジネスを成長させるためのソリューションになるかもしれないということを気づかせるかもしれない。
http://d.hatena.ne.jp/momoco-f/20100507/1273163950
5 Secrets from a Profitable Start-Up business
A year ago, Becky McCray and Sheila Scarborough were entrepreneurs with their own businesses who attended the SOBCon conference and decided to partner to start a business. By September 2009, they had launched Tourism Currents to teach tourism professionals how to use social media. In their first month, they generated a profit. Today, they came back to SOBCon and shared the secrets of their success, with the caveat ? these are not rules, the path has not been perfect, but it worked for them, so it could work for you too:
1.Set a deadline to launch your business. They decided in May that they would launch in September, and stuck to the deadline even as they learned their initial expectations of “How hard could it be?” were inaccurate. Push forward and…
2.Don’t expect perfection of yourself. It is good to strive for this, but is better to find a way to open your doors to customers so you can…
3.Generate revenue while you test. Launch and iterate on your business based on feedback from your customers, what sells, what you’re good at, what is profitable, what you want to do.
4.Solve for a narrow target. This is very difficult because our natural tendency is to think it is easier to grow by going after a big market. Trust that solving for a narrow market helps you focus on the best opportunities and will help you create great products and solutions that your customers help you sell through word of mouth.
5.Focus on your customer’s problems rather than the tools you’re selling to solve them. Having this mindset allows you to evolve both your business plan and products to meet their needs. This allows you to see that a different tool (your product or service), rather than a better one, might be the solution that helps you grow your business.
http://blog.quickbooksonline.com/2010/05/01/5-secrets-from-a-profitable-start-up-business/
せっかく2時間もかけて前のエントリーを書いたのに、丸一日経っても誰も読んでくれないよ…と涙に暮れていたのですが、なんとお褒めの言葉付きで長文のリプライが！「もうこれは２ｃｈに自作自演で宣伝書き込みをするしかない」、と悲壮な決意を固めかけていたのですが、ああ、神様、どうやら私は人の道を踏み外さずにすみそうです。
馬鹿なことを書くのはこれくらいにして本題に入りましょう。
http://anond.hatelabo.jp/20100217164344
「中銀が高めのレートでインフレターゲットを実行する」能力も意志もないのです。処方箋はあるのに肝心の中銀がそれを採用しようという意思がないのです。
こんな中銀ですから、平時においてインフレ率を高めに誘導しておく必要が、すなわち名目金利引き下げの余地を残しておく必要があるのです。
まず、ブランチャード(フランス語読みではブランシャール)らがここで書いた文章の表題をもう一度確認してみましょう。”What we thought we knew”とあります。直訳すれば「我々が理解していると考えていたこと」でしょうか。
ここで過去形になっていることは非常に大きな意味を持ちます。これは「今はもうそうは考えていない」ことを意味しているからです。日本語的な発想では「過去にそう考えていたとして、今どう考えているかは分からないのでは？」と思いがちですが、今も引き続きそう考えているなら英語では現在完了形を使わなければなりません。
英語はこの辺りの時制のコントロールに対して非常に厳密です。ですから、1970年のJohn Smithの論文がこう主張している、という表現をするときには、J. Smith (1970) arguesと書くのが普通です。論文自体が書かれたのは40年前ですが、Smithの主張が今も有効であるならば、現在形になるのです。逆に Smith (1970) arguedと書いた場合、この著者はSmithの意見を既に時代遅れなものと見なしていることになります。
つまり、私の翻訳した部分はブランチャード自身が「既に時代遅れである」と判断したことについて書いてあるのです。翻訳では若干時制が不明確になってしまっていますが、『中央銀行が将来の高い名目マネーサプライ成長率とひいては将来の高いインフレーションにコミット（訳注：約束）できるなら、中銀は期待インフレ率の上昇によって将来の予想実質金利を低下させ、それによって現在の景気を刺激することが出来る』という下りは、原文では
The formal argument was that, to the extent that central banks could commit to higher nominal money growth and thus higher inflation in the future, they could increase future inflation expectations and thus decrease future anticipated real rates and stimulate activity today.
となっています。過去形に注目してください。ブランチャードはこの議論を最早信じてはいないことがここからも分かります。過去形の解釈について納得がいかない方はマーク・ピーターセンの「日本人の英語」辺りを読んでみると良いでしょう。
つまり、ブランチャードが批判的に取り上げているのは、「処方箋があるにもかかわらずそれを採用しようとしない中銀の存在」ではありません。処方箋に問題があるにもかかわらず、それを中銀の意思と能力の問題に矮小化してしまった経済学者の態度こそが批判されているのです。だからこそ、前回翻訳した最後の部分で『公平を期しておくと、Fedは日本の経験を無視したわけではなく、2000年の初めにデフレのリスクを憂慮した論文を発表している』と添え書きされているわけです。経済学者にも良心的な態度を取った人がいたことは、公平のために言及しておく、と。もしも「リフレの処方箋」にコミットする能力と意思を中銀が欠いていることをブランチャードらが問題視しているなら、to be fairなどと書くはずもないことは文脈から明らかでしょう。
ですから、
将来のマネーサプライ増と将来のインフレとにコミットする能力も意思も欠いた中銀だからこそ、4％のインフレ率が必要となるのです。
将来のマネーサプライ増と将来のインフレとにコミットする能力も意思も欠いた中銀だからこそ、流動性の罠など恐るるに足るのです。
この解釈をブランチャードらの論文から引き出すことは出来ないと思います。この論文で議論されているのは徹頭徹尾経済学の問題であって、「能力と意思を欠いた」中央銀行に対して批判的な表現は、（上でも書いたとおり）少なくとも私の読んだ限りでは全く見当たりませんでした。中央銀行は能力も意思もないから、それを前提に現実的な経済理論を再構築しよう、とも書いていません。今まで半ば普遍的に信じられていた、「2%前後で安定したインフレ率が望ましい」という経済学者のコンセンサスそれ自体に疑義を唱えているのです。
加えて、中銀が無能ないしは怠惰であるという理由以外で能力／意思を欠いているのであれば、それは中銀の問題（だけ）ではなく処方箋の側に（も）問題があると考えるのはごく普通の理解であろうと思います。例えば、中銀にそもそもコミットメント能力が備わっていないならば、それを前提とした処方箋は無効であることは当然ですよね。
「いかにして流動性の罠に陥らないようにすればよいのか」を問題にしているブランチャードが、「いかにして流動性の罠から抜け出せばいいのか」という問題への処方箋であるリフレ政策を支持するはずも否定するはずもないのです。
前回翻訳した部分をもう一度参照してください。なぜブランチャードらは2%のインフレ率を望ましくないと判断したのでしょうか。ブランチャードらは過去にも「2%のインフレでは低すぎる、利下げ余地が小さすぎる」という懸念があったことを紹介しています。そして、その懸念は「ゼロ金利になっても、中銀が将来のインフレにコミットすれば大丈夫だ。」という、Eggertsson and Woodford (2003)らの議論によって葬り去られました。そして、日本の金融政策の失敗を受けても、一度葬り去られた懸念が見直されることはありませんでした。
そして、世界中がゼロ金利の罠にハマった後、ブランチャードらはようやく「2%のインフレでは低すぎる、利下げ余地が小さすぎる」という懸念を復活させます。それは、「いやいや利下げ余地が小さくても問題ない、打つ手は他にある」、というリフレ派の議論がもはや有効とは言えないと考えられたからこそなのです。繰り返し書きますが、「流動性の罠から抜け出す簡単な方法は存在しない」からこそ、利下げ余地が論点として再浮上し、高いインフレに伴う経済への負担を覚悟してでも流動性の罠に陥らないようにしようという結論に至る、という論理構成なのです。この論文はかなり読みやすい英語で書かれていますので、暇があれば通読なさると良いでしょう。
また、以上の説明から、最終段落で言及されている「ブランチャードらは流動性の罠から脱出するためのリフレ政策を支持していると読めないこともない」点は、誤読であると申し上げるより他ないことはご理解頂けるのではないかと思います。この辺りも、原文に当たられた方が文章の雰囲気と構成（"stood more uneasily in the way"や"to be fair"など）をよりはっきりと掴めるでしょうから、原文を当たられることを繰り返しお勧めします。
最後に、ブランチャードが書いた部分を、少し分かり易く脚色してみます。
とあるところにあるリフレ村で司祭様が村人に説教をしています。
司祭様 「全能なる我らが神はこの村の人々を温かく見守ってくださっておる。なんの心配もいらないよ、君たちは選ばれた民なのだから。100年前の大飢饉（大恐慌）では人々は神への祈りを捧げなかった。だから多くの民が死に絶えたのだ。だが今は違う。私が正しい神への祈り方を教え授けている。神は我らの祈りを請け給うたのだ。」
女 「司祭様。それでは何故私の父は病に苦しんでいるのでしょうか。既に10年以上、病床を離れることが出来ません。」
司祭様 「…それは、あなたの父親の信心が足りないからだ。神を理解する能力に欠けるからだ。彼が心から神を信じているならば、彼の病が長引くことなどあり得なかった。家に帰って彼に伝えなさい。悔い改めよ、と。さすれば彼はたちどころに快復するであろう。」
これは新興宗教の必勝パターンでありまして、この父親が毎日祈りを捧げても（量的緩和）、喜捨の額を増やしても（国債買いオペ増額）、病から快復しないならば「信心が足りない！まだ不十分だ！」と言い続ければよいのです。楽な商売でございます。
ただし、この戦法は多くの村人が病にかかってしまうと通用しなくなります。挙句の果てに村の外からは賢者様がやってきて、「いや、そのお祈りじゃ患者は救えないでしょ。治療法は確立されてないし、一度病気になっちゃうと後が大変だから、とりあえず患者が増えないように予防策を考えようか」とおっしゃっておられます。
さぁ司祭様の立場は一気に悪くなってまいりました。石もて追われる5秒前！しかしこのまま大人しく村を去る司祭様ではありません。一発逆転の隠し玉は当然用意してあるはず。疫病快癒の大祈祷でもって見事リフレの神のご威光を天下に知らしめ、村人達の笑顔を取り戻して下さるに違いありません。
