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The main issue...the bid price has been reaching ¥80/kWh every day since the beginning of the year.

I can finally get into what I really want to tell you.

The reason why new power companies have stopped accepting bids or have withdrawn from the business is because the days when this JEPX spot market price reaches 80 yen/kWh have been going on and on since the beginning of 2010.

The electricity market is a market. If there is a surplus of electricity, the bid price goes down, and if there is a shortage of electricity, the bid price goes up. The spot market is a blind single-price auction, which means that once a contract price is determined, all market prices are traded at that price. Even if Masuda-san bids 10 yen, if many people bid 20 yen, it will be 20 yen, and if many people bid 5 yen, it will be 5 yen.

And as I said before, if they fail to purchase, the power retailer has to pay the imbalance fee.

Then what happens? Many people think, "I'm going to buy it at the imbalance fee of 80 yen/kWh anyway, so I'll bid 80 yen for it. Here is the URL of Enexchange's website, which shows the spot market price in an easy-to-understand manner.

https://insight.enechange.jp/markets

For March 31, it's in the 20 yen range. That's bright red. It is cheaper than the 80 yen I mentioned earlier.

How is that possible?

Imagine this. TEPCO's Standard S plan is 20~30 yen/kWh. You see, what we sell for 20-30 yen, we have to buy for more than 20 yen, or even 80 yen.

How much is the gross profit on something that sells for 25 yen?　8 yen, 5 yen, 3 yen? Let's assume that 90 out of every 100 jobs generate a gross profit of 5 yen, which is a profit of 450 yen. If 10 out of 100 sell at that price, the profit is 550 yen.

450 - 550 = -100.

This is the impact of a spot market price of 80 yen. Imagine if you had a customer base of tens of thousands of dollars, and you have to blow millions of dollars every day for a month. I think you can understand a little bit of the logic behind the suspension of acceptance and shutdown of business.

Of course, calculating the cost of procuring electricity is not this simple. I mean, I can't write about the inside story of procurement in my business because it would violate confidentiality. I wrote what I could find out just from the spot market, where the amounts are visualized by the general public. I didn't tell the whole story, if you think about it. Sorry. It's a title fraud.

Supplement... why is this happening?

To be honest, even as someone in the new power company, I am troubled by this situation. How did this happen? ......

In essence, I think "don't liberalize the infrastructure in the first place" is right. However, to put some position talk into it, I think that the various things that happened in the aftermath of Fukushima and the licking at the Kashiwazaki nuclear power plant were the result of being lenient because it was infrastructure, and I think there is some nuance to that.

However, I don't think that the designers of the system anticipated this level of instability in the power supply when the system was liberalized in April 2004. I was impressed when the supply-demand crunch warning came out. I was like, "This is it!　That rumored ！！！！　Supply and demand crunch alert: ！！！！！！！" I was so excited. There's no way there's going to be rolling blackouts! It's about to happen!

However, in the extreme, retailers are wholesalers, and while they are wholesalers, the products they sell are not all that different. How can you make a difference in a commodity like electricity? It is usually impossible. It's hard to add value to a product because it's all about price. Of course it's not impossible. There are plans, decarbonization, optional services, and so on. But there is no difference in the electricity itself. I think it's possible to point out that the reason why various new electric power companies flocked to the market was because hyenas gathered in the industry that was assured of a sweet deal in infrastructure ......, and that's true for a percentage of the population. I think all electric power companies are looking for ways to add value to electricity.

I hope this case will make the market healthier.

Incidentally, there is a new electric power company that is getting a tailwind from this current situation. Where is it?　The answer is after the commercial!

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

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